Race Details
- Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
- Field Size: 19 horses
- Weather: 60% chance of rain most of the day clearing up around 5PM.
This year’s Kentucky Derby field features a dynamic mix of solid contenders and intriguing longshots, setting the stage for a thrilling race. Journalism, the early 3-1 favorite, has been nothing short of dominant in his last four starts, showcasing both tactical speed and closing ability. His decisive win in the Santa Anita Derby cemented his status as a top contender, and under the expert guidance of trainer Brad Cox, he has steadily matured into a formidable racehorse. Sovereignty, at 5-1 odds, is a horse that excels late in races, often surging past competitors in the final furlongs. Having already claimed victory at Churchill Downs in a lower-level stakes race, he’s comfortable on the track—a significant advantage heading into the Derby. His thrilling triumph at Gulfstream Park highlighted his ability to navigate crowded fields, making him a dangerous presence in the final stretch.
Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner, is an undeniable talent but has shown some inconsistencies in his maturity. His raw speed makes him a threat, yet concerns about his stamina over the grueling 1 ¼-mile Derby distance loom large. Meanwhile, Burnham Square, despite sitting at 12-1 odds, boasts the highest number of qualifying points among all competitors. This suggests reliability, consistency, and race-tested endurance. Though not a flashy competitor, he has quietly built a strong resume that could surprise many on Derby Day. Luxor Café, the intriguing international entrant from Japan, is sired by American Pharoah, the legendary 2015 Triple Crown winner. His pedigree alone makes him an exciting prospect, and his performances overseas hint at the possibility of a strong showing despite being a relatively unknown quantity to U.S. racing fans.
My Thoughts:
However you want to slice it, there will be a wet track for the big race as rain is expected to continue on and off through most of Saturday. There are a few horses that have performed well in the slop in the number 2 Neoquist, the number 5 in American Promise, and the number 16 in Coal Battle. I will take this information with a grain of salt as none of these races were grade 1 competition, yet there is a horse that I do think that the muddy situation may help in his situation. My handicap is more about trying to hit a big ticket rather then small returns on the favorites. I think that there are about 12-14 horses here that can realistically win this race. It isn’t hard to make an argument for most of these ponies, but at the same time, we can’t bet them all. On the other hand, it isn’t hard to make an argument against some of these horses and let’s start right there with the favorite in Journalism. At 3-1, this horse is a deserving favorite, but I think his price should be more than 4-1. This Michael McCarthy horse has won all of his prep races including the Santa Anita derby, but the big problem with this guy is that he hasn’t raced against a field larger than five wide. I will use him in some Exotics to try and recoup if I get beat, but I am not all that impressed. The second favorite is Sandman, and according to Chris Fallica, this horse has some social media backing. Looking at the poor price on this horse, Chris and Kiev give a few other thoughts on the below video from our Kentucky Derby preview podcast.
Our problem with Sandman is that this Marc Casse horse had a very easy trip in the Arkansas derby, yet was very inconsistent in his previous traces losing to Coal Battle and Madaket Road in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his loss to Speed King in the Southwest G3. If this horse hits the top two positions, there will be no steak for me tonight. Another horse that many are looking at is the Japanese Horse Luxor Cafe. This is a very successful horse, with triple crown winner American Pharaoh as the sire, that is almost undefeated in the Japanese circuit. His last loss was last year on a muddy track. Today doesn’t bode all that well for him forecasting the track conditions and for that reason among others like poor competition makes me sour on him some, yet I last min decided to include him in a smaller tri-fecta. I will have Luxor Cafe and Journalism in some savor situations, but what I am keying in on is much more important.
My Picks:
I am going to try and key in on three horses. First, the 5 horse in American Promise is a very promising horse trained by D Wayne Lukas. This horse has the pedigree of a champion with triple crown winner Justify as the sire and Tapella (Tapit) as the Dam. This horse blew through the competition at the Virginia Derby. He has the makings of a champion with a win on a muddy track in December that was over 1 mile long. His gate position looks good if he can hang with the pace, and his price is still solid over 10-1. The next horse I fell on is the third favorite in Sovereignty. This Bill Mott horse has had a ton of success in winning the Fountain of Youth with a solid run in the Florida Derby. Had this horse had another 1/8th of a mile to go, he may have beaten Tappen Street who unfortunately was scratched from the Kentucky Derby a week ago as this horse suffered a condylar fracture to his right foreleg. I really like this closer and I think he should be the second favorite. The last horse that I fell on is Baeza who was able to join the party due to a few scratches. This horse has a really good number right now at 23-1, and he lost to the favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita derby by a 1/2 length at the wire. Baeza isn’t exactly a closer, but as Rich Strike did in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, he has a shot to sneak up from the outside and slide into first under these race conditions.
The way I am constructing my ticket is for a solid to big hit in this race. I will have a few savor tickets below as you can see, but there is no reason for me to be shy about the horses that I like in this race. I also throw in two small “holy crap” situations as anything can happen on a wet track with a field of 19 horses. The total ticket costs $341 and if you like you can halve those bets and still play the derby for $170.50. Remember to bet responsibly. Best of luck to you in all of your plays!
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