NFC South: The NFC South has once again proven incompetent as ever. Last season, this division had three pretty bad organizations with one that was above average. The Tampa Bay Bucs were the only team that looked like they had a pulse when they hit the playoffs. The Atlanta falcons were all hype and no substance with a 40 million dollar a year quarterback that won’t be their starter for 2025, while the Carolina panthers and the New Orleans saints became, must not watch TV. This season, the NFC South has it a bit easier than last season facing the NFC West as well as the AFC East. This isn’t exactly easy by any means, but still much better than what they had to deal with last year. The good news for this division is that they get to play each other twice.
Best Bet: Saints under 6.5 wins -180 – 1 star
Divisional Futures: (DK) Buccaneers 100, Falcons +240, Panthers +400, Saints +1000
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 juiced to the under -115
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 11.3
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Houston, vs Philadelphia, @Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: C Robert Hainsey, S Jordan Whitehead
Key additions: OLB Hassan Reddick, P Riley Dixon, RT Charlie Heck, ILB Anthony Walker Jr
Key draft picks: WR Emeka Egbuka, CB Benjamin Morrison, CB Jacob Parrish, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: If anyone over the past two seasons underestimated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then they most likely paid for it. This Bucs team continues to be very solid, but I also think that they are getting a little bit older. Mike Evans continues to be the go-to receiver there while Chris Godwin can’t seem to stay healthy. The question is how much longer can these guys be productive? I do like some of the things that this team did in free agency and the draft. The Bucs focused on defense where they found some dudes that can step it up. In saying that, I do not think that this team did enough to beat the top teams in the NFC. If injuries, unlike last year go their way, the Bucs may have an opportunity for the 1 seed in the playoffs. That’s right. A 1 seed! That should be the goal for these guys with a very favorable schedule. Tampa Bay finished the season ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 17th on defense. This is why this team focused their offseason on that side of the ball. This defense ranked 27th in opponent pass EPA, making that the reason that the organization went cornerbacks in this draft. I like the moves. This Bucs team didn’t have good injury luck yet with all of the injuries that they have sustained on offense & defense, yet still won 10 games. A big question mark for me is how the Bucs will do without starting center Robert Hainsey. Graham Barton was a high draft pick who steps on in. I think that the Buccaneers should win quite a few games this season.
My number is: 10.65 wins
Action: Over 9.5 wins – .5 stars (FD)
Tampa Bay’s Power Rating: 2.75
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.61
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Minnesota, vs Washington, vs Indianapolis (neutral in Berlin Germany)
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: DT Grady Jarrett, DT Eddie Goldman, OLB Lorenzo Carter, C Drew Dalman, WR Rondale Moore, OLB Matt Judon, S Justin Simmons
Key additions: LB Divine Deablo, Edge Leonard Floyd, DE Morgan Fox, CB Michael Ford, QB Easton Stick
Key draft picks: Edge Jalon Walker, Edge James Pearce, S Xavier Watts, S Billy Bowman, T Jack Nelson
Summary: Last year, I was pretty upset with the Falcons for signing Kurt Cousins and Drafting Michael Penix. Strange how it worked out for them, yet still quite costly. Now, we get to watch this team pay a backup north of 140 millions dollars. Michael Penix Jr hasn’t played in a lot of games, but for what he accomplished, he looks the part of a starting quarterback in the national football league. I thought that this team certainly lost some big men in the trenches, but I also think that they did wonderful in free agency and in the Draft. The diry-birds drafted two beast edge rushers from the SEC as well as, maybe, the best safety in in the draft in Xavier Watts. My biggest problem with the Falcons is the coaching. Raheem Morris has been less than adequate as he always seems to make the wrong decision in the critical moments of each game. This year, Atlanta does benefit from a schedule that removes an away game and puts it in Berlin Germany for a neutral venue vs the Colts. I expect the Falcons to have a solid run game utilizing Bijan Robinson better now that Michael Penix Jr. should be able to open up the passing game. Their biggest hole will be the defense against the run. Losing defensive tackles Grady Jarrett, Eddie Goldman, and Lorenzo Carter at linebacker, could be rough when going against some of the better running backs in this division like Bucky Irving, and Alvin Kamara. In saying that, the Falcons upside is high. They could be be very good, and steal this division from Tampa Bay, I just can’t trust this coach enough to bet it.
My Number: 8.81
Atlanta’s Power Rating: .5
Action: Lean win division, lean over 7.5 wins and lean make the playoffs
3. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -125
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 4.08
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Jacksonville, vs Dallas, @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: S Xavier Woods, CB Linnie Johnson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Shaq Thompson
Key additions: S Trevon Moehrig, DT Tershawn Wharton, DT Bobby Brown, OLB Patrick Jones
Key draft picks: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Edge Nic Scourton, Edge Princley Umanmielen, RB Trevor Etienne, S Lathan Ransom, WR Jimmy Horn and some dudes
Summary: last season, I found it somewhat amusing watching the Carolina Panthers win two of their last three games to sneak into third place in the division, and to crush any of those under 4.5 season win totals that were so popular before the 2024 NFL season began. My apologies if that was one of you readers. This team took the division rival Atlanta Falcons straight out of the playoffs during the final game, and I think that this was quite rewarding to this organization. In saying that, the Panthers Pythagorean wins were the league lowest at 4.08 and this team was worse on paper than their lowly five wins had shown. One thing that I do believe is that quarterback Bryce Young still may have some life in him. He knows that everyone looks at him as a bust, but I have noticed that he works hard and I think that he may be able to turn it around. The pressure is off and he is now playing with house money. I like how this team signed some defensive help in the trenches as well as drafting some pass rush. My big concern remains on the offensive line, that last season, was quite below average. My secondary concerns basically are IN the secondary as well as the back end of the defense. The linebackers are basically unproven, and the passing defense ranked dead last in drop-back-EPA and success rate. The Panthers have a lot of growing to do, but they at least have a schedule that isn’t too daunting.
My Number: 5.54
Carolina Power Rating: -5.5
Action: Lean under
4. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 Juiced Towards the under -180
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.82
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs NY Giants, @ Chicago, @ Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key Losses: Coach Dennis Allen, QB Derek Carr, CB Paulson Adebo, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, S Will Harris, DE Payton Turner, ILB Willie Gay, RB Jamaal Williams
Key additions: Coach Kellen Moore, S Justin Reid, WR Brandon Cooks, CB Isaac Yadom, T Dillon Radunz
Key draft picks: T Kelvin Banks, QB Tyler Schough, DL Veron Broughton
Summary: The Saints make me think of the song “won’t get fooled again”. After this team blew away the Cowboys inking a 2-0 start, they managed to lose six games in a row. It got worse as the season progressed with losses to the Panthers, The Raiders, and the Falcons. This team is in total rebuild mode as two of their impact players in offensive Tackle Ryan Ramcyzk and quarterback Derek Carr retired. So what do they do? They reach for a low rated quarterback in Tyler Shough in the second round. Say what you want about Shedeur Sanders, but I do know that he is certainly a better prospect then Shough. The biggest change was obviously the hiring of Kellen Moore, who proved to be a pretty good offensive coordinator with the Cowboys and the Eagles. The big question is, how will Kellen be as a head coach with low talent? I mean, it can’t be good. The Saints get a fourth place schedule which is listed as the third easiest in football, but when you diver deeper, you notice that the Saints have the second worst net rest advantage at -14 days getting three times coming off of bye weeks. OUCH. Two good things I will say about the Saints is that they had a large Pythagorean win total last year of 6.82. This means they were a lot better than their five wins. I will also say that they had the second worst injury luck behind the Lions, but the fact that they have no decent quarterback in a rebuilding year is very glaring. Kellen Moore will be on his honeymoon in his first head coaching year, and this team won’t win seven games. Heck they may not win five.
My number is: 5.41 wins
Action: Under 6.5 wins -180 – 1 star
New Orleans Power Rating: -7.5
*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team
