Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we’ve gotten it all back in May plus a little. For the season we currently sit at 36-38 +1.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some very rare 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Target Field in Minneapolis, MN where the Minnesota Twins (27-22) will host the Kansas City Royals (28-23) at 8:10 ET. The current line sits with the Twins as heavy favorites at -183 (Royals +168) with an Over/Under of 7.5 juiced to the over at -125. Game time temperature will be 62 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing in slightly from left at roughly 5mph.
The Twins have been on an absolute tear since the calendar turned to May going 14-4 this month including a 13 game win streak. They’ve done it mostly with great pitching allowing just three runs per game over that stretch.
Tonight they start Pablo Lopez who has been great so far this season. He boasts a 2.40 ERA with a 3.08 xFIP. He’s striking our 9.8 batters per nine innings while only allowing 1.80 BB. His BABIP against is only .261 so that is due for some regression as is his HR/9 which sits at .60 and is well below his major league average of 1.08. He faced the Royals early in the season allowing one unearned run in 4.2 IP with 3 hits, 6 Ks, and 1 BB.
The Royals have also been getting it done with pitching and defense. Also allowing just three runs per game since the calendar turned to May. They are tied in the AL central for second place with the Guardians and Twins five games back of the division leading Tigers.
They’ll trot out rookie Noah Cameron for his third career start. He has looked good in his first two outings only allowing one earned run so far in 12.1 IP. His xFIP is high sitting at 5.08, but he also has not struck out many batters in his two starts and it is a very small sample size. In the minors last year across two levels he struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings while only allowing 2.5 BBs on average. Right now he is rolling with five pitches in the repertoire all of them with plus values in his limited MLB time. He is certainly due for some regression and a not so warm welcome at some point coming up. I’m betting it won’t be tonight against the Twins.
So what’s my angle? Well both teams here are struggling on offense. The Twins are 21st in runs scored and OPS, while the Royals are 26th and 25th respectively. The difference I am going to hone in on tonight and why I think there is an edge is how the Twins have struggled versus left handed pitching. While they’ve been better or late, they hold only a .650 OPS against southpaws and are striking out 28.1% of their ABs. The Twins are also still without Byron Buxton who is still dealing with concussion effects. He is one of their best hitters vs lefties with a .393 OPS.
Should the Twins be favored? Absolutely. Should they be -180 with a line as low as 7.5 against a very similar teams profile with a lefty on the bump? Nope. I have this one with the Royals at +140 so I’ll take the extra $.28 and try and cash a decent size dog tonight.
Royals +168 1 Unit
