The NFC West The NFC West was full of surprises in the 2025 season. The first surprise was the demise of the San Francisco 49ers who became decimated with injuries. This bad luck started right away when they hid Christian McCaffery’s injury in the preseason, thus screwing over fantasy football fans all around the globe. The Seattle Seahawks were much better than expected, while the Arizona Cardinals had some growing pains with their young group of guys. The Rams stole the division, and literally were a few plays away from beating the Eagles in the playoffs in the snow. This season, the schedule works out quite well with this division getting to play the NFC South, and the AFC South which are widely considered the two worst divisions in football. The Market seems to think that the 49ers are the team to beat, but I am just not so sure of that. Let’s dig in and find out why.
Divisional Futures: 49ers +150, LA Rams +195, Seahawks +475, Cardinals +475
1. LA Rams –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -140
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 7.97
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Philadelphia, @ Baltimore, vs Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Cooper Kupp, DT Bobby Brown, OLB Michael Hoecht, WR DeMarcus Robinson, LB Christian Rozenboom
Key additions: WR Davante Adams, DT Poona Ford, C/G Coleman Shelton
Key Draft Picks: TE Terrance Ferguson, Edge Josaiah Steward and a bunch of hope.
Summary: After making the playoffs and winning this division in the 2025 season, I am pretty frustrated with this Rams team as they didn’t do jack in this offseason. I feel like they are the west coast Packers. Great coaching with a bad front office. Maybe they are still celebrating their super bowl from a few years back. Anyways, this Rams team was quite lucky to achieve 10 wins last year with their Pythagorean win total showing just below eight. This team ranked a modest 15th in offensive EPA, and only 23rd on defensive EPA. The clear reason for these wins was just some great coaching by Sean McVey and clutch performances by quarterback Matthew Stafford. Now this team loses a big leader in Cooper Kupp. Don’t get me wrong, he was already on the senior slide with a ton of regression to the mean, but he at least was a great sideline and locker room guy. Signing Davante Adams feels a lot like that could be very good or just very bad. I never thought of him as a good leader, and the complaining could start as early as week one. The only bright spot on this defense was edge rusher Jared Verse. The rest of the guys are very mid-to lower end talent. Quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t getting any younger, yet he probably still has some left in the tank. Some good news with the schedule is that the Rams net +10 days rest which ranks third in the league. I will tread cautiously for the first few weeks with this Rams team, but it certainly won’t surprise me if this team takes a step back.
My Number: 8.99
Action – No Play
LA Rams power rating: 2
2. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.07
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Green Bay, @ Dallas, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Roy Lopez, DT Khyiris Tonga, DT Naquan Jones, OLB Kyzier White, G Will Hernandez
Key additions: DE Josh Sweat, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, QB Jacoby Brissett, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, DE Calais Campbell, OLB Mykal Walker
Key Draft Picks: DT Walter Nolen, CB Will Johnson, Edge Jordan Burch, LB Cody Simon, CB Denzel Burke
Summary: I like the outlook for this team! These Arizona Cardinals only took third place in their division, yet they had the highest Pythagorean win total out of all of their rivals at 9.07. Rich Gannon is building a program there that I think can at least get this team to the playoffs, if not win the whole division. Arizona literally didn’t lose anyone to free agency that was worth a whole lot to the team. One might think that their run game takes a hit from losing their defensive tackles, but they were already well below average in that category ranking 25th in opponent rush EPA. Signing guys like Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson should more than fill in that gap. The draft pick of defensive tackle Walter Nolan was a great move. Getting cornerback Will Johnson late in the second round was a steal in my opinion. Hopefully, newly acquired linebacker Baron Browning can have a solid year and stay healthy. The offense that ranked 10th in EPA per play should take a step forward now with healthy running backs, and a more seasoned offensive line. We also have to remember that the Cardinals have a top three tight end in Trey McBride as well as a huge talent in Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver, who should take a step forward. Quarterback Kyle Murray knows that it’s his time to shine. I like Rich Gannon, and this team should win enough games to make the playoffs if not win the division.
My Number: 10.25
Action – Cardinals win NFC West +475 – .5 stars & over 8.5 wins +100 – 1.5 stars (DK)
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: 2
3. San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 7.28
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ NY Giants, @ Browns, vs Bears
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Deebo Samuel, LB Dre Greenlaw, G Aaron Banks, CB Charvarius Ward, DT Javon Hargrave, LT Jaylon Moore, S Talanoa Hufanga, Edge Leonard Floyd, DT Maliek Collins, RB Elijah Mitchell, ILB De’Vondre Campbell, G Jon Feliciano
Key additions: DC Robert Saleh, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, WR DeMarcus Robinson, S Siran Neal, S Jason Pinnock, ILB Luke Gifford, CB Tre Brown
Key Draft Picks: Edge Mykel Williams, DL Alfred Collins, LB Nick Martin
Summary: Are we sure that the 49ers are the best team in the NFC West? Was last year a bunch of bad luck? It’s hard to turn against Kyle Shanahan, but this team lost a ton in the offseason, and has had maybe the worst draft out of all of the NFL teams. If money only grew on trees, this team could keep all of their talent. The 49ers lost some of their best guys at every section of their defense. General Manager John Lynch decided to pay Fred Warner which was maybe warranted, yet comes with an opportunity cost of losing LBs Dre Greenlaw and De’Vondre Campbell. Greenlaw didn’t play much anyways due to injury, but he was still a big part of their 11.5 win projection as of last season. Christian McCaffery comes back healthy, but how long can that last? He isn’t exactly a spring chicken himself. Losing Deebo Samuel in that trade didn’t exactly get them back any real value minus a money grab. The 49ers, last season, mistakenly paid Brandon Aiyuk which in turn, forced Deebo Samuel out. Deebo has his own issues, but he was also a great gadget guy who was great running the ball and very hard to tackle. The 49ers do not have a real number one wide receiver in my opinion. Jauan Jennings is every bit as good as Aiyuk, and I feel that they are really the same type of guy. Maybe the great coaching of Kyle Shanahan, and Robert Saleh, who is back as defensive coordinator can make up for what they lost. The 49ers finally paid their quarterback Brock Purdy. I don’t love this situation either. I like Purdy, but I honestly think that he was a product of great coaching similar to what we see in Green Bay. This team was in much better shape when they had more money to spread around. Mac Jones might even be a better quarterback if he gets his Alabama type confidence back. Now for the good. The 49ers have by far the easiest schedule in football. The good thing about having bad injury luck and taking fourth place in your own division is getting a fourth place schedule. Not only that, the 49ers net a +9 days of rest which is much different than what we saw last season. We also much remember that coaching is huge. Kyle Shanahan can make an average player look great. At the end of the day, this 49ers team is very top heavy. If they can stay healthy, they will a bunch of games and maybe the division. If they once again have some rough injury luck, they can be in a lot of trouble due to depth issues. I can only look under the win total at 10.5.
My Number: 9.14
Action: Under 10.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 2
4. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -140
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.7
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Pittsburgh, @Washington, vs Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, DE Dre’Mont Jones, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, G Laken Tomlinson, WR Tyler Lockett, CB Tre Brown, S Rayshawn Jenkins, RT George Fant
Key additions: OC Klint Kubiak, QB Sam Darnold, WR Cooper Kupp, DE DeMarcus Lawrence, QB Drew Lock, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, T Josh Jones, DT Jonathan Hankins
Key draft picks: T Grey Zabel, S Nick Emmanwori, TE Elijay Arroyo, QB Jalen Milroe, DL Rylie Mills, WR Tory Horton
Summary: I do not quite know what some teams are thinking. After last season, It became clear to everyone that Geno Smith wasn’t in the plans going forward for coach Mike McDonald. So instead they bring in Sam Darnold? This is a lot like trading your old golf cart for an old moped. Last season, according to the Pythagorean win total of 8.7 wins, the Seahawks over-achieved winning ten. I do think that MacDonald has had a very good start to his coaching career, especially on the defensive side, but I do not understand the moves in free agency. Let’s start with the quarterback. New quarterback Sam Darnold only looked great last year because he had a great coach, with having the best pass catchers in football. The real Darnold came out in crunch time at the end of the season. I do not think that new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is going to get nearly the same production. Next, the Seahawks sign two washed up players in WR Cooper Kupp, and DE Demarcus Lawrence. For the amount that these two guys were paid, I do not think that we see nearly the same production as they had in the past. Kupp has been rendered with injuries after his super bowl run with the Rams. He is now average at best. DeMarcus Lawrence is so checked out of the NFL game that the Seahawks will be lucky if he even shows up to practice. My other big concern is Seattle’s offensive line. Moving on from George Fant is a big statement, but do we know that their first pick in the draft in North Dakota State’s Tackle Grey Zabel can even play in the NFL? Another concern is who will be catching the football. The Seahawks lost their top wide receiver in DK Metcalf, and their most trustworthy wide receiver in Tyler Lockett. This with the new quarterback is such a big change to the offense. I like JSN a lot, but he is also quite injury prone to be considered at all reliable. The good thing for the Seahawks is that their defensive line should be solid. I like the draft pick of Riley Mills and I think that he can become a starter. The defense on this team looks solid and the Seahawks will have to rely on that phase to win most of their games. The schedule looks ok, but that also depends on your thoughts on the rest of this division. I remain somewhat bearish to neutral on this team.
My number: 8.35
Action – Lean under 8.5
Seattle’s Power Rating: -1
