Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June was less than stellar to start dropping 13 units the first two weeks, but we’ve rallied back and had a seven day winning streak end yesterday. For the season we currently sit at 77-79 +3.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH where the Cleveland Guardians (40-39) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) at 6:10 ET. The current line sits with the Cardinals as slight favorites at -124 (Guardians +114) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -115. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees with a chance for light rain. The wind blowing out slightly to right center at roughly 5-10mph.
The home Guardians will start Luis Ortiz who is coming off his best outing of the year Saturday in Sacromento where he held the Athletics scoreless over six innings with 10 Ks and 2 BBs. He currently sits with a 4.30 ERA, but just a 3.64 xFIP. His K-rate is way up this season as he is striking out over 10 batter per nine innings. The walks and home runs have been the major issue as his 14.3% HR/FB rate.
On the other side of the diamond we will see Sonny “Pickles” Gray taking the hill for the Cardinals. Gray is very all or nothing as most of his damage to his ERA has come in just three of his fifteen starts. He holds a 3.72 ERA with a minuscule 3.11xFIP. He is striking out 9.57 per nine innings and walking only 1.81. That’s a greater than 5/1 ratio which is elite stuff.
So what’s the angle?
Well on the offensive side of things the Cardinals have been far superior against right handed pitching featuring a .738 OPS and they strike out 21.9% of their at-bats while the Guardians hold a .691 OPS with a 24.1% whiff rate. The Cardinals were shutout the last two days by really good Cubs pitching and should be ready to bounce back here to the their form of the prior ten days when they averaged 6.4 runs per game. The Guardians are averaging just 2.7 runs per game over that same stretch.
While both pitchers can fix problems with the strikeout Gray creates many less for himself than Ortiz does via the walk, and he has a much lower HR rate against him.
Both teams feature similar bullpen ERAs with the Cards sitting at 3.85 and the Guardians at 3.80. Neither pen used there key pieces yesterday so everyone should be rested and ready to go.
With the wind blowing out I want the better offense with the guy that keeps the ball in the park better on my side at this short of a price. I have this closer to Cards -145 so I’m taking the value here and playing the favorite.
Cardinals ML -124 for 1.5 Units
