Happy NFL regular season to all those who celebrate. After all the build up since the draft in April we’ve finally reached the season opener. In the past I’ve had time to break down every division in depth and give you predictions, but this year I’ve just got time to get you my season win totals for each team. We’ve done well in these articles and hopefully can get you some winners again. I’ll show each division with Over/Under Season win total odds and then give you my Win/Loss Predictions and bets. Without further ado here is my NFL full season predictions
AFC East
Buffalo 11.5 Over -155/Under +125.
Miami 8.5 Over +175/Under -205
New England 7.5 Over -145/ Under +115
New York Jets 5.5 Over -165/Under +135
Buffalo 14-3/Miami 8-9/New England 6-11/New York Jets 5-12
The AFC East gets cross conference games against the NFC South which makes it a little easier on all these teams. I think these are the two weakest divisions in football after the teams at the top with the AFC South coming in next.
AFC East Bets – Buffalo Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. New England Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit.
AFC West
Kansas City 11.5 Over +110/Under -140
Denver 9.5 Over -125/Under -105
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 Over -115/Under -115
Las Vegas 7.5 Over +125/ Under -145
Kansas City 11-6/Denver 9-8/Los Angeles Chargers 9-8/Las Vegas 8-9
I expect this to be a very tough division, and it’s possible this could be the year someone knocks the Chiefs off the pedestal. Everything here lands right on the number for me.
AFC West Bets – Nothing
AFC North
Baltimore 11.5 Over -145/Under +115
Cincinnati 9.5 Over -130/ Under +100
Pittsburgh 8.5 Over -125/Under -105
Cleveland 5.5 Over +115/Under -145
Baltimore 13-4/Cincinnati 11-5/Pittsburgh 9-8/Cleveland 5-12
My numbers say I should be on Baltimore and Cincinnati here. The Bengals defense can’t be awful early in the year again can it? I’ll probably regret it, but I’m in.
AFC North Bets – Baltimore Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. Cincinnati Over 9.5 Wins 1 Unit.
AFC South
Houston 9.5 Over +110/Under -140
Jacksonville 7.5 Over -130/Under +100
Indianapolis 7.5 Over -115/ Under -115
Tennessee 5.5 Over -170/Under +140
Houston 10-7/Jacksonville 7-10/Indianapolis 6-11/ Tennessee 5-12
The Indy defense could keep them in some games, but do you trust Daniel Jones with that offense especially when Taylor gets hurt? Plus if they don’t get a win at home against Miami or Denver and find a way to lose at Tennessee this team could mail it in early.
AFC South Bets – Indianapolis Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit
NFC East
Philadelphia 11.5 Over 11.5/Under 11.5
Washington 9.5 Over -110/Under -120
Dallas 7.5 Over +105/Under -135
New York Giants 5.5 Over -125/Under +105
Philadelphia 11-6/Washington 10-7/Dallas 9-8/ New York Giants 7-10
The Parsons trade dropped the Cowboys some on the board, I bet them early and I am hitting them again late here. I am also higher on the Giants than most people are, but it’s possible with how Dart has looked if they start out poorly against a brutal opening schedule things could go sideways. I think the front seven on defense could be real good for New York however and am sticking with my guns here that they will be improved. If you don’t like that maybe bet the over later on if they start poorly.
NFC East Bets – Dallas Over 7.5 Wins 1 Unit. New York Giants Over 5.5 Wins 1 Unit.
NFC West
San Francisco 10.5 Over -125/Under -115
Los Angeles Rams 9.5 Over -135/Under +105
Arizona 8.5 Over -140/ Under +110
Seattle 8.5 Over +105/Under -135
San Francisco 11-6/ Arizona 10-7/ Los Angeles Rams 10-7/Seattle 8-9
My numbers say play Arizona, but I don’t trust Murray to stay healthy so I am staying away in what be a very good division.
NFC West Bets – Nothing.
NFC North
Detroit 10.5 Over +105/Under -135
Green Bay 9.5 Over -165/Under +135
Chicago 8.5 Over +105/ Under -135
Minnesota 8.5 Over -155/ Under +125
Detroit 11-6/Green Bay 11-6/Chicago 5-12/ Minnesota 4-13
The Parsons trade moved the Green Bay number to the point where it may not be worth betting, but I am still on it. I am not high on Chicago taking a step forward or Minnesota and JJ squared to find success in his first full season. Lots of action here.
NFC North Bets – Green Bay Over 9.5 1 Unit. Chicago Under 8.5 1 Unit. Minnesota Under 8.5 1.5 Units.
NFC South
Tampa Bay 9.5 Over -115/Under -115
Atlanta 7.5 Over -175/Under +145
Carolina 6.5 Over -125/Under -105
New Orleans 5.5 Over -125/Under -105
Tampa Bay 12-5/Carolina 6-11/Atlanta 5-12/New Orleans 4-13
Somehow everyone loves Atlanta to be a sleeper here and I just don’t see it. Penix has solid talent around him, but only threw three TDs in three starts to close the year. He has the arm to make the throws, but I don’t trust the reads watching him thus far. Plus the schedule is brutal for them to start the season. Could be a good over hedge after week 8. New Orleans needs Arch Manning right? I can’t see them playing to win at any point this season.
NFC South Bets – Tampa over 9.5 2 Units. Atlanta Under 7.5 1 Unit. New Orleans Under 5.5 1.5 Units
Conferences and Super Bowl Bets
I don’t see a lot of value plays on the board this year. Teams like the Bengals and Chargers around +2000 might be worth a shot. I’m putting a small ticket in on the Bills +600, but that’s it. Yes, they are the favorite, but I think this is the year. Getting out of the AFC playoffs will be brutal though for everyone.
Other Bets – Sprinkling a little bit on these. Don’t go crazy, but I like the numbers here.
Las Vegas Raiders to win AFC West +1600. They’ve got the easiest schedule and crazier things have happened when a bunch of teams are beating up on each other.
Defensive player of the year – Maxx Crosby +1600. To go along with the above bet why not take a look at him. Hutchinson is only at +625 and their comeback player of the year odds are Crosby +2200 and Hutchinson +250. You could bet both small.
NFL Coach of the Year -Todd Bowles +6000. – I mentioned this one on the Vegas Podcast. Why does the NFL hate him? What happens if the big dogs in the NFC beat up on each other and goes 12-5 and get the top seed in the NFC?
That’s it folks. Quick and to the point? Want any other thoughts or info hit me up on X @TheGreatKnoche. Good Luck to everyone with their bets this football season!
