My Super Bowl Story –
Under 58 – 3 star – I think that the last few super bowls going to 72 and 75 points along with New England’s recent scoring rampage really drove this line up however, this will be the Patriots best defense that they have faced pretty much all year. I do not see both of these teams taking big risks the first half of this matchup and neither does Vegas. You can easily tell this just by looking at the Vegas line for Tom Brady’s total passing yards for the full game at 294 and for the first half at about 110. This discrepancy is pretty evident with the other players as well. Now just because I like this under a bunch does not mean that I won’t hedge it by halftime if the score is under 27.
Under 28 1st half – From the last podcast why would you not take the first half under if that’s the way you think the game will be played out.
Goff MVP +250 1.5 star – Too much value not too. Now this is a much better way in betting the Rams rather than betting them +120 to win the game. I also think Belichek will make Goff beat him and try and stop the running game.
Donald MVP +2000 .5 star – Just in case 🙂
Tom Brady over 294.5 passing yards 1.5 star (-120) – Goff/Donald MVP Hedge
Tom Brady over 2.5 TD Passes .75 star +155 – Goff/Donald MVP Hedge – Brady for MVP at +100 is not really good value. Instead I like this hedge because literally all 3 of these can happen. Goff MVP, Brady over 2.5 touchdowns and 294 yards. You saw this happen last year when Foles won the MVP.
First Score by Rams FG or Safty .5 star +150
First Score by Patriots FG or Safty .5 star +160
– narrative on both teams being careful and not forcing anything the first half.
Todd Gurley rushing yards under 60.5 +100 1 star Love it (2 back system now and injury) What the Hell has been up with Gurley? He seems like he is either being punished or not trusted during these playoffs. He barley touched the ball the first 2 playoff games.
Brandon Cooks receiving yards under 75.5 .5 star – Belichek wants to stop Cooks to keep him from embarrassment. Last year benching Malcolm Butler was embarrassing when they lost the game to Philadelphia
Robert Woods receiving yards over 70.5 .5 star – He should be open in the middle of the field when they are keying in on Cooks.
Robert Woods rushing yards over 6.5 .75 star (-120) The last 5 Rams games Woods had at least 1 carry and mostly it was 2. The Jet sweep and end around is a high yardage return.
Sonny Michelle rushing yards under 79.5 1 star Love it– narrative on both teams being careful – nobody for Pats rushed over 45 yards the last 2 Super bowls and Rams shut down the running game very well. Nobody has rushed over 47 yards against them in the playoffs.
James Develin rushing + receiving yards over 3.5 .5 star Love it. You know Belichek won’t be able to live with himself if he didn’t do one of those, “this is the patriot way” plays where everyone contributes. I also am thinking about a touchdown prop for him if I can find one.
Gronk scores a TD .5 star +180 – hes such a big target and you know they will draw up a RedZone play for him. The rest of the Patriot Wide Receivers are small. Gronk scored twice in the last super bowl and that is another high paying prop I am thinking about.
Julian Edelman – I am not going to take his over 80 yards receiving and over 7.5 completions because I think Wade Phillips is smart enough to either Jam him at the line or put a safety over him every play. I thought a lot about this one and I could be wrong so that is why I am not going under either. Instead look at Hogan and Dorsett
Chris Hogan over 42.5 receiving yards .5 star
Phillip Dorsett over 28.5 receiving yards .5 star
Tyler Higbee scores a TD +365 1 star – Love this – So we already saw this play during the Saints game. A miss direction goal line play action pass on the right to Higbee. He is left wide open a lot and without Cooper Kupp in the Rams lineup, I love this even more.
James White over 50.5 receiving yards .5 star (-115) I think that the Rams will do whatever it takes to slow down Edelman and Gronk and make the other players beat them. I saw Corey Littleton fail when he tried to guard Kamara and I think Belichek may see that too.
Runners up:
James white over 7 or 8 catches – That is a lot for a running back
Littleton over 8.5 tackles. That is a lot for a Line Backer
Not sure if many of you have a Betonline.ag account but under “super bowl specials” they are pretty much giving away $50 for letting them hold on to $50 bucks until next season. I checked with Dave Mason on this as well.
The prop is that as long as the super bowl winner scores in the first game of the 2019 regular season. (I think that’s a 99% chance)
