Welcome back to all our loyal TheOddsbreakers.com readers. We are winding down the college basketball season as tournament time is right around the corner.
We’re still holding our own with our high volume of plays in college basketball. All our plays are 3 units and under and typically 1-2 Units. Even after an awful start we’ve battled back and are now 255-229-1 on the season +17.49 Units. I should wait to play more until I get more data as we are 234-181-1 +65.63 Units since December 15th.
Today we look to Indianapolis, Indiana and the Horizon League tournament Semi-finals where Detroit Mercy will take on Robert Morris at the Corteva Coliseum at 8:30 CT. The Line is currently at Robert Morris -5 with a total landing at 147.5.
Robert Morris comes in 22-10 overall and finished second in the Horizon going 13-7 in conference play. They’ve gone 11-2 down the stretch and have been winning games by imposing their defensive might against weaker offenses in the Horizon. Detroit finished tied for third in conference finishing one game back of Robert Morris at 12-8, and are at 16-14 overall. They have also played well down the stretch winning eight of their last ten.
First off, the Horizon was very balanced this year with the second through seventh seeds finishing within three games of each other. There are certain trends that pop-up in repeat match-ups, and I see some in this game as well.
They say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, and while that may be true there’s a reason Robert Morris holds an advantage in this one. His name is Ryan Prather and he is in the Top 10 in the country in individual offensive ratings for his percentage of possessions used. Last time out against Detroit he put up 29. He is averaging 15.8 ppg and 35.7% from deep on the season.
He’s just part of what Robert Morris does well on offense which is shoot the three ball. They are 13th in the country hitting 38.5% from distance. When they do miss, they crash the boards hard as they are also 13th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. They snagged 15 offensive rebounds in both match-ups against Detroit this season and I expect more of the same tonight. If they have a large weakness it is at the free-throw line which is the only thing scary as a backdoor cover could be open. Detroit also has shot the three-ball well and is tops in Horizon league conference play. They do however have a big home/road split from distance shooting 39.3% at home and only 32.1% away from Calihan Hall.
Detroit will look to win this game by pushing tempo, and Robert Morris has been beaten by up tempo teams in conference this year including a bad loss to IU Indy. Robert Morris is 7-3 however against the top tempo teams in the Horizon. On the flip side Detroit has struggled against the slower paced teams in conference only going 3-7 in those contests. Even pushing tempo Detroit doesn’t turn teams over on defense rankings 332nd in the country. Robert Morris hasn’t protected the ball well, but only turned it over only 19 times combined in the two games with Detroit earlier this season.
Robert Morris is going to win the possession battle and barring a three-point extravaganza from Detroit those extra possessions should be enough to cover this number on a neutral floor.
Robert Morris -5, 2 Units
