Baseball season is out of the gates and we’re not smashing anything yet. 13-15 overall +1.7 Units as we’ve hit a couple nice big plus money winners so far. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO. where the Cardinals (2-2) will host the New York Mets (3-1) at 7:45 ET. The current line sits with the Mets as favorites at -150 (Cardinals +140) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the under at -115. Game time temperature will be 83 degrees under mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for storms and the wind blowing out moderately to center at roughly 10-15 mph.
The Cardinals will start Andre Pallente today in his first action of the season. In 2025 he went 6-15 with a 5.31 ERA. His xFIP was almost a run better at 4.16, but sometimes all the metrics in the world can’t get around the fact that Pallente walks way to many batters compared to bats he misses. The career K/9 is a paltry 6.28 with a BB/9 sitting at 3.52. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher which should help with the wind blowing out tonight. That being said when he does get elevated he gives up plenty of hard contact and Home Runs with a career HR/FB% checking in at 15.3%. All of his pitch values in 2025 were in the negative.
New York will roll out Kodai Senga who appears to be fully healthy for the first time since 2023. He had a shoulder issue in 2024 that cost him the whole season and in 2025 he faced shoulder, calf and hamstring issues. In that 2023 season however where he was consistently touching the upper 90s he finished with a 2.98 ERA and was striking out 10.93 hitters per 9. He is the master of The “Ghost Fork” which is a devastating low-spin pitch characterized by its rapid, sudden drop, causing it to seemingly “disappear” from batters’ sight. It acts as a hybrid of a splitter and a gyro ball, usually thrown at 80–85 mph, creating a massive velocity gap from his nearly 100 mph fastball. Now that he’s healthy that velocity is back up where it was in 2023 as he touched 98.9 mph this spring. He was very effective overall in Spring Training allowing only two runs in 9.2 IP and struck out 11 batters.
In limited action so far both these teams are generating roughly the same amount of Offense, with the Mets rocking a better OBP and the Cardinals with a stronger slugging number. The Cards have gotten a nice early season boost from rookie JJ Wetherholt, but even with similar offensive numbers so far the Mets clearly have a stronger top to bottom lineup and feature two of the top players in baseball atop the lineup in Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.
Finally the bullpen for St. Louis has been brutal to open the season with a 7.94 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. The Mets is sitting pretty so far with a 2.00 ERA.
Again, it’s early so you have to play historical data a little more than normal and taking that into account I made this game Mets -170. Getting a price twenty cents cheaper is a play for me.
Mets -150 to win 1.5 Units.
