Baseball season is out of the gates and we’re slowly getting it rolling. Had a rough last seven days to give some back, but we’re still starting off well at 60-55-1 overall +15.93 Units as we’ve hit a couple nice big plus money winners so far. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Daikin Park in Houston, TX. where the Astros (8-12) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (10-8) at 7:45 ET. The current line sits with the Astros as favorites at -133 (Cardinals +123) with an Over/Under of 9 juiced to the under at -115.
The Astros will start recently called up former Rockies top pitching prospect Peter Lambert to make the start tonight as they deal with rotation injuries and issues. Lambert spent last year playing in Japan where he had a 4.26 ERA and a 3.19xFIP. The hitting isn’t quite as good over there and he struggled albeit playing half his games in Denver for the Rockies primarily working as a long reliever after his first season. He has had control issues in both Japan and Colorado with his last two seasons featuring walk rates north of four walks issued per nine innings. He has struggled to limit hard contact and opposing hitters have a lifetime .327 BABIP against him.
The Cardinals start Kyle Leahy who had worked as a reliever in his first three seasons in the bigs. He hasn’t had much success so far this season as a starter allowing a 5.14 ERA over three starts with a 5.47xFIP. He has struggled to miss bats and with walks early on this season with only seven strikouts over 14 innings pitched while walking eight hitters. The biggest strength for Leahy has always been his ability to keep the ball in the park as he has a career .65 HR/9 innings ratio.
On Offense the Astros have been one of the best early on in 2026 with a .790 OPS good for third in MLB averaging 5.35 runs per game. The Cardinals sit at 16th in OPS at .695 and are scoring 4.44 runs per contest. Jordan Walker has had some posy-hype success to start the year as he is tied with Aaron Judge for the league lead in home runs with eight.
My handicap on this one really looks at the limited success Leahy has had as a starter to begin the season and Lambert making his return to the bigs where even if he starts off okay I can’t see him going more than five innings. The biggest struggle for both these teams has been in the bullpen where St. Louis ranks 25th with a 5.35 ERA and Houston is 28th with a 5.85 ERA. I see both teams having to get into those bullpens early and I think that leads to some offensive fireworks tonight in Houston. I got this over early at 8.5, but I still like it where it is now at 9.
Over 9 Runs -105 to win 2 Units.
