NFC North 2026 Preview
The NFC North once again enters the season as one of the NFL’s premier divisions. Much like 2024 and 2025, all four teams remain competitive, and remarkably, no team finished below .500 last season. That level of parity is rare in a 17‑game schedule and speaks to the depth and coaching quality across the division.
For 2026, Vegas projects another tight race: the lowest win total is Minnesota at 8.5, meaning every team is expected to contend. These teams will beat each other up, but the scheduling gods were relatively kind. The division draws the AFC East (two strong teams, two weak ones) and the NFC South, which is favorable. The gap between a first‑place and last‑place schedule remains meaningful, and as always, health and turnover luck will shape the final standings.
Interestingly, Pythagorean win totals from 2025 paint a different picture than the standings, flipping the order to Lions / Vikings / Packers / Bears. Coaching matters, but so do turnovers—and the NFC gets the extra home game this season, which could help.
🧠 2025 NFC North Advanced Metrics (With Full NFL Rankings)
(Based 100% on the table you provided — no guessing, no old data)
🐻 Chicago Bears — 2025 Advanced Rankings
| Metric | Value | Rank (of 32) |
|---|---|---|
| Off EPA/play | 0.076 | 8th |
| Def EPA/play | 0.035 | 21st |
| Off Success Rate | 45.7% | 13th |
| Def Success Rate | 47.2% | 26th |
| Off Pass EPA | 0.122 | 12th |
| Def Pass EPA | 0.088 | 20th |
Profile: Above‑average offense (top‑12 EPA), average defense, below‑average pass defense.
🧀 Green Bay Packers — 2025 Advanced Rankings
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Off EPA/play | 0.122 | 4th |
| Def EPA/play | 0.042 | 22nd |
| Off Success Rate | 48.1% | 6th |
| Def Success Rate | 45.2% | 19th |
| Off Pass EPA | 0.273 | 3rd |
| Def Pass EPA | 0.116 | 22nd |
Profile: Top‑5 offense, elite passing efficiency, average defense, weak pass defense.
🦁 Detroit Lions — 2025 Advanced Rankings
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Off EPA/play | 0.071 | 9th |
| Def EPA/play | 0.012 | 15th |
| Off Success Rate | 45.0% | 15th |
| Def Success Rate | 42.6% | 11th |
| Off Pass EPA | 0.167 | 9th |
| Def Pass EPA | 0.040 | 14th |
Profile: Top‑10 offense, slightly below‑average defense, solid pass defense.
🟣 Minnesota Vikings — 2025 Advanced Rankings
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Off EPA/play | -0.094 | 28th |
| Def EPA/play | -0.087 | 3rd |
| Off Success Rate | 43.3% | 22nd |
| Def Success Rate | 41.6% | 6th |
| Off Pass EPA | -0.115 | 28th |
| Def Pass EPA | -0.088 | 2nd |
Odds to Win the Division
- Lions +180
- Packers +215
- Bears +310
- Vikings +500
1. Chicago Bears
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 2025 Wins: 11 Pythagorean Wins: 8.04 Schedule Difficulty: Medium‑Hard At‑Large Games: vs Eagles, @ Seahawks, vs Jaguars Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC Declan Doyal, WR DJ Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Kevin Byard, S Jaquan Brisker, S Chauncey Gardner‑Johnson, CB Nayshon Wright, DL Andrew Billings
Key Additions
S Coby Bryant, DL Neville Gallimore, CB Cam Lewis, WR Kalif Raymond
Draft Class
S Dillon Theineman, C Logan Jones, TE Sam Roush, WR Savion Thomas, CB Malik Muhammad, LB Keyshawn Elliott
Summary
The Bears were one of the league’s biggest stories in 2025. Nicknamed the Cardiac Bears, they repeatedly played poorly for three quarters only to storm back in the fourth. That late‑game magic helped them overperform dramatically: 11 wins vs. 8.04 expected wins, driven by +22 turnover differential, strong coaching from Ben Johnson, and clutch play from Caleb Williams.
But sustainability is a concern.
Chicago suffered major losses in the secondary and at linebacker. First‑round pick Dillon Theineman will be asked to fill big shoes immediately. DC Dennis Allen returns to a defense that ranked 21st in EPA, struggling against both the run and pass. Getting TJ Edwards healthy helps, but depth remains thin.
Offensively, losing DJ Moore hurts, but the WR room is still talented with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden. The offensive line is solid, though LT remains a worry with Braxton Jones and Ozzy Trapilo.
From a scheduling standpoint, Chicago faces the 6th‑hardest slate based on opponent win totals and the worst schedule against opposing pass efficiency. The silver lining: they have +15 net rest days, the best in the league, and avoid opponents coming off byes or mini‑byes.
Projection: 9.02 wins Action: Lean Under
2. Green Bay Packers
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 (Under -140) 2025 Wins: 9.5 Pythagorean Wins: 9.31 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Cowboys, @ Rams, vs Texans Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
DC Jeff Hafley, QB Malik Willis, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Quay Walker, C Elgton Jenkins, LT Rasheed Walker, CB Nate Hobbs, CB Trevon Diggs
Key Additions
DC Jonathan Gannon, DT Javon Hargrave, CB Benjamin St‑Juste, QB Tyrod Taylor
Draft Class
CB Brandon Cissee, DL Chris McClellan, Edge Dani Dennis‑Sutton
Summary
The Packers once again fell short of expectations, and frustration is growing—especially with repeated postseason failures against the Bears. The blockbuster Micah Parsons trade cost them significant draft capital, leaving their first pick at No. 52. Parsons’ health will be a major storyline.
The offensive line took major hits with the departures of Jenkins and Rasheed Walker. The secondary also lost key contributors, and replacing Quay Walker won’t be easy. Jonathan Gannon takes over as DC; while he excelled in Philadelphia, his Arizona tenure was rocky.
The good news: the skill positions remain loaded with Matthew Golden, Jayden Hicks, and Christian Watson. Jordan Love continues to develop, and the team’s floor remains high.
Green Bay is still an above‑average team with a strong coaching staff, but the roster is thinner than in previous years.
Projection: 9.41 wins Action: No Play
3. Detroit Lions
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.96 Schedule Difficulty: Easiest in NFL At‑Large Games: @ Cardinals, vs Titans, vs Giants Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC John Morton, LB Alex Anzalone, CB Amik Robertson, DL DJ Reader, DL Roy Lopez, LT Taylor Decker, C Graham Glasgow, multiple edge rushers
Key Additions
OC Drew Petzing, C Cade Mays, RT Larry Borom, CB Rock Ya‑Sin, Edge DJ Wonnum
Draft Class
T Blake Miller, Edge Derrick Moore, LB Jimmy Rolder
Summary
Detroit’s competitive window is narrowing—not because of talent, but because the roster is now expensive and difficult to maintain. The offense still boasts elite playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon‑Ra St. Brown, but the offensive line suffered major losses.
Hiring Drew Petzing as OC is questionable; his track record doesn’t inspire confidence.
Defensively, losing Alex Anzalone and several key linemen weakens a unit that already struggled. Regression is likely.
The saving grace: Detroit has the easiest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals. If they stay healthy, they can still contend for the division, but the margin for error is shrinking.
Projection: 9.48 wins Action: Lean Under 10.5
4. Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.37 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Colts, vs 49ers, vs Washington Power Rating: 1
Key Losses
DL Jonathan Allen, WR Jalen Nailor, DL Javon Hargrave, S Harrison Smith, CB Jeff Okudah
Key Additions
QB Kyler Murray, CB James Pierre, WR Jauan Jennings, DL Isaiah Loudermilk
Draft Class
DL Caleb Banks, LB Jake Golday, DL Domonique Orange, T Caleb Tiernan
Summary
The Vikings enter 2026 with one of the strangest quarterback transitions in recent memory—moving on from a QB who went on to win a Super Bowl elsewhere. Yet Minnesota quietly became one of the league’s most underrated teams late last season, winning five straight and leapfrogging Detroit for third place.
Unfortunately, that success saddles them with a tougher schedule, including the 49ers instead of the Cardinals.
The biggest question is at quarterback:
- Can Kyler Murray recapture his early‑career form?
- Is JJ McCarthy just average, or something more?
If either answer is positive, this roster has upside.
DC Brian Flores engineered a top‑3 defense in EPA, while the offense ranked 28th. Even modest offensive improvement could make Minnesota a playoff contender. They didn’t lose much outside the defensive line, and if their draft picks contribute early, this team could surprise.
Projection: 8.87 wins Action: Vikings to Make Playoffs +166 (0.5 stars)
