After a crazy start to the season we’ve leveled off a bit here in MLB. We are still well up for the year with a 244-235-12 overall record putting us at +55.38 Units on MLB for the season. Hoping to get us back on track this week and grow the number. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX where the Rangers (30-32) will host the Cleveland Guardians (36-28 ) at 8:15 ET. The current line sits with the Guardians as slight favorites at -119 (Rangers +109) with an Over/Under of 7.5 juiced over -115. Game time temp is whatever they set the indoor field thermostat at as the roof will be closed.
The Rangers will roll out Kumar Rocker tonight who is finally putting up some decent ERA figures in his third MLB season sitting at 3.54 across 54 IP. He hasn’t really lived up to the hype of being a third overall pick. He currently has a K-rate at 7.07 per 9 innings and a walk rate at 4.02. Not a great ratio. He has been a little lucky with opponents sporting a .268 BABIP against him and a HR/FB% of only 8.5 compared to 13.0% for his career. That lands his xFIP almost a full run higher than his actual ERA checking in at 4.48.
Parker Messick will start for the Guardians and he has been nothing short of fantastic in his first full season in the Bigs. He is currently sporting a 2.21 ERA with 9.61 strikeouts per 9, and a 2.73 BB/9. His xFIP is also a full run higher at 3.21, which is still very good as he has been lucky so far on strand rate (85.6%) and BABIP against (.276).
Both of these teams have struggled offensively with the Rangers holding a .694 OPS and the Guardians a .693 which is good for 25th and 26th in MLB. They are also both worse against the pitching side they are facing today with the Guardians at .677 against Righties and the Rangers an awful .636 against Lefties. Cleveland is 21st at 4.13 runs per game and Texas is 24th at 4.02.
Both bullpens have been solid with the Rangers holding a slight edge sitting with a bullpen ERA of 3.33, but they struggled the last few weeks. Cleveland has a bullpen ERA of 3.72. The Rangers bullpen has fresher key pieces with none of their top three guys pitching the last two days The Guardians have Cade Smith fresh only pitching once in the last week, but three of their top guys pitched on Tuesday and Wednesday. That being said they should all be available today.
So what’s the handicap? Quite frankly I believe in Kumar Rocker regression coming on quick. His K/BB ratio isn’t going to continue to hold up producing the results they have thus far. His slider and fastball pitch values are both much improved vs his career numbers, but he isn’t fooling anyone with them. His Outside zone swing percentage is below league average at 29.6% as is his whiff rate at 10.1%. Messick hasn’t gone super deep in most of his games only completing 6+IP four times in twelve starts, but has only allowed more than two earned runs twice and it hasn’t happened since May 3rd. Both the times it happened were against teams who hit lefties very well in the Astros and A’s. The Rangers also haven’t faced a lefty starter in almost two weeks and the last one they did was Reid Detmers who mowed down 14 Rangers allowing one run over 8IP.
Guardians -119, 2 Units. Guardians RL -1.5 +140 1 Unit.
