The AFC South
The AFC South was a pretty tricky division last year. The Colts looked like clear frontrunners until they lost their quarterback, which spun them straight into chaos. The Texans started out looking like the worst team in football, but somehow had the best defense in the NFL — a combination that kept them relevant and pushed them into a wildcard spot and two playoff wins. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were probably the most complete team in the division, but they managed to choke away their playoff hopes on that final drive against Josh Allen and the Bills. And then there were the Titans, who were once again embarrassed until former coach Mike Vrabel kindly took the spotlight off them during the offseason and put it squarely on himself. If you want to revisit that drama, the Vrabel fallout is still something.
For 2026–2027, I expect more fight from this division. The AFC South draws the AFC North and the NFC East for its conference schedules, which I’d call a medium difficulty — not a gauntlet, but definitely not a vacation. The interesting part is that the top three teams all feel like they have an equal shot at winning this division. No true favorite, no true doormat, just a cluster of flawed but dangerous teams. If you want to explore that parity, the AFC South balance is one of the most intriguing storylines.
Best Bet: Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Odds to win the division:
- Texans +110
- Jaguars +245
- Colts +380
- Titans +800
AFC South – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
| Team | EPA/play (Rank) | Success Rate (Rank) | Dropback EPA (Rank) | Rush EPA (Rank) | Dropback SR (Rank) | Rush SR (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 0.083 (7) | 46.7% (7) | 0.104 (11) | 0.052 (3) | 47.9% (15) | 44.9% (10) |
| JAX | 0.039 (12) | 44.5% (15) | 0.110 (10) | -0.073 (21) | 47.9% (15) | 39.3% (24) |
| HOU | -0.008 (22) | 41.7% (28) | 0.083 (17) | -0.149 (31) | 45.7% (26) | 35.6% (31) |
| TEN | -0.148 (30) | 37.9% (31) | -0.165 (31) | -0.117 (27) | 38.0% (32) | 37.5% (27) |
AFC South – Full Defensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
| Team | EPA/play (Rank) | Success Rate (Rank) | Dropback EPA (Rank) | Rush EPA (Rank) | Dropback SR (Rank) | Rush SR (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | -0.108 (2) | 39.5% (2) | -0.097 (2) | -0.129 (3) | 40.6% (2) | 37.7% (7) |
| JAX | -0.079 (5) | 42.4% (9) | -0.067 (6) | -0.106 (7) | 45.0% (12) | 36.4% (6) |
| IND | 0.013 (16) | 45.7% (16) | 0.078 (17) | -0.101 (8) | 48.0% (20) | 41.6% (20) |
| TEN | 0.106 (28) | 45.4% (15) | 0.201 (28) | -0.043 (20) | 49.7% (26) | 38.7% (10) |
1. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -125
2025 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 11.36
Schedule: Medium – at large @ The Broncos vs The Patriots, @ The Bears,
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: LB Devin Lloyd, RB Travis Etienne, CB Greg Newsome, S Andrew Wingard, Edge Emmanuel Ogbah
Key additions: RB Christian Rodriguez Jr., RB Ammeer Abdullah, CB Dane Jackson
Key Draft Picks: TE Nate Boerkirchner, DT Albert Regis, G Emmanuel Pregnon
Summary:
Going from four wins to thirteen was the story of the Jaguars last year. I was plenty happy myself, considering I bet them to make the playoffs and go over 7.5 wins. The problem, of course, was running into the Bills in the postseason, where experience mattered and Jacksonville learned that lesson the hard way. Even so, this Jaguars team was quietly top five in my power ratings. For this season, I’m torn — regression is possible, but they also have the pieces to take another step forward. If you want to revisit that leap, the Jaguars rise still stands out.
The Jaguars definitely felt the ripple effects of the Travis Hunter trade from 2025 when they entered the 2026 draft without a first‑round pick. Their first selection didn’t come until the late 50s, and I still don’t know what they were thinking. Hunter is basically just a decent cornerback at this point. Will he be used more at wide receiver this year? Maybe — but that’s also tied to the fact that Brian Thomas Jr. took a huge step back from his impressive rookie season in 2024. For more on that uncertainty, the Hunter experiment is worth watching.
The Jaguars also lost Trevor Lawrence’s longtime running mate, Travis Etienne, to free agency. I don’t mind that as much because Byahshul Tuten was an absolute beast last season, but the depth behind him is thin. In general, I like the playmakers on this roster. No massive names, but a bunch of guys who can get the job done. The offense should be fine after ranking 12th in EPA per play last year. If you want to dig deeper, the Jaguars offense remains one of the more balanced units in the league.
Defense is where things get tricky. The money wasn’t there to keep everyone, and losing linebacker Devin Lloyd and cornerback Greg Newsome could sting. They also cheaped out replacing Emmanuel Ogbah, leaving them with almost no depth at edge. I expect this defense to regress from its fifth‑place EPA ranking, while the hope is that the offense improves enough to offset it. The good news is that I really like coach Liam Cohen, and there’s continuity with Grant Udinski at offensive coordinator and Anthony Campanile running the defense. For more on that stability, the Jaguars coaching staff is a real strength.
One thing to keep in mind: the Texans were the number‑one team in fumble luck last year, giving away only three fumbles while taking ten from opponents. That kind of swing tends to regress. The Jaguars’ schedule isn’t exactly easy either, with the Broncos, Patriots, and Bears as their at‑large opponents. It could be worse — at least they avoided the Seahawks — but it’s still a tough draw.
All in all, I like the players and the coaching staff. The Jaguars will be in my top six or seven teams to start the season, but I’ll be monitoring them closely.
My Number: 10.68
Action – Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: 3.25
2. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -125
2025 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.67
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Bills, @ LA Chargers, @ Packers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Tim Settle, WR Christian Kirk, LB Christian Harris, S Jimmy Ward, Edge Denico Autry, RB Joe Mixon, DT Mario Edwards, Edge Derek Barnette, DT Foley Fatukasi, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: RB David Montgomery, S Reed Blankenship, T Braden Smith, G Wyatt Teller, DT Logan Hall, TE Foster Moreau, LB Jake Hummel, Edge Dominique Robinson, G Evan Brown
Key Draft Picks: G Keylan Rutgledge, DT Kayden McDonald, TE Marlin Klein, G Febechi Nwaiwu
Summary:
The Texans were absolutely in the mix at the end of last season, thanks to having the best defense in the league next to the Seahawks. The problem was that their offense was putrid, and it all started with the offensive line. The good news for 2026 is that they finally ponied up and signed actual grown‑ups who can block, like tackle Braden Smith from the Colts and guard Wyatt Teller from the Browns. At running back, David Montgomery comes in to try and make the Texans’ run game great again. If you want to dig into that overhaul, the Texans offensive rebuild is one of the biggest storylines.
The defense did take a small hit in free agency, losing some depth, but I like the way they drafted Kayden McDonald out of Ohio State to keep the trenches intact. This team could be very good if the wide receivers show up — and that’s my only real issue. Nico Collins and Tank Dell seem to always be injured, and this offense ranked 31st in rush EPA and 26th in passing success rate. They retained offensive coordinator Nick Caley, which might have been a mistake. CJ Stroud has proven he’s an NFL quarterback, but this team still has to prove it can function on offense. For more on that challenge, the Stroud–Caley dynamic is worth watching.
If they stay healthy, the Texans could easily win the division. The biggest issue is the schedule, which did them no favors: Bills, Chargers, and Packers as their at‑large opponents. That’s a rough trio for a team still trying to fix its offense. If you want to explore that difficulty, the Texans schedule is one of the tougher draws in the AFC.
I have the Texans power‑rated just a bit below the Jaguars to start the season, but not by much. This is a team with real upside — as long as the offense finally decides to participate.
My Number: 10.34
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.75
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140
2025 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Chiefs, @ Vikings, vs Dolphins
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Michael Pittman, Edge Kwity Paye, T Braden Smith, S Nick Cross, DT Neville Gallimore, Edge Samson Ebukam, C Danny Pinter, CB Kenny Moore, Edge Tyquan Lewis
Key additions: Edge Michael Clemons, Edge Arden Key, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, DT Derrick Knadi, DT Jerry Tillery
Whom they drafted: LB CJ Allen, S AJ Haulcy, G Jalen Farmer, LB Bryce Boettcher, Edge George Gumbs Jr.
Summary:
The Colts were the best team to miss the playoffs last season, underachieving by a massive 1.93 games according to their Pythagorean win total. They should have won at least nine. Instead, a brutal injury to Daniel Jones and a complete meltdown down the stretch — losing all seven of their final games — sent them spiraling. To be fair, the Colts had it pretty easy early in the year thanks to a cake schedule, but everything fell apart once Jones went down. If you want to revisit that collapse, the Colts late‑season slide tells the whole story.
Looking at Daniel Jones, he may be ready for the regular season after the Achilles injury, but the offense took major hits. They lost left tackle Braden Smith and their top wide receiver Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce stepped up last year, but life is different when defenses start treating you like a WR1. Jonathan Taylor is back and ready to roll, but I’m concerned he can replicate last year’s hot start behind a downgraded offensive line. Last year’s top draft pick, Tyler Warren, should see more targets and hopefully score more than four touchdowns. For more on that offensive reset, the Colts skill positions are worth tracking.
Defensively, I’m just as concerned. They lost key edge rushers, a good safety, and multiple defensive tackles. The draft will have to hit for this team to maintain even a mediocre defensive rating. The Sauce‑Gardner trade has looked bad so far, but we’ll see if that changes this season. The Colts need to get to the quarterback, and they’ll need big games from their edge rushers — something I’m skeptical about. The good news is that DeForest Buckner returns, and he can both stop the run and generate pressure. If you want to dig deeper, the Colts defensive outlook is full of question marks.
The 2026 schedule ended up fine overall, aside from the brutal ‑6 net rest days. If the Colts can get the offense rolling again like it was before Danny Dimes got hurt, they’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot. But they’ll need health, defensive improvement, and a little luck — three things that haven’t exactly been their specialty.
My Number: 8.97
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -.5
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 6.5
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.87
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs NY Jets, @ Lions, @ Raiders
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach Brian Callahan, TE Chig Okonkwo, Edge Arden Key, DT Sebastian Joseph, CB Kalir Elam, G Kevin Zeitler, S Xavier Woods
Key additions: Coach Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll, DC Gus Bradley, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, DT John Franklin-Myers, CB Alontae Taylor, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, QB Mitchell Trubisky, LB Jake Martin, DT Jordan Elliot, CB Joshua Williams, C Austin Schlottman, S Tony Adams
Key Draft Picks: WR Carnell Tate, Edge Keldric Faulk, LB Anthony Hill Jr., G Fernando Carmona, RB Nicholas Singleton
Summary:
The Titans were the second‑worst team in the league by the numbers last season, ranking 30th in offensive EPA and 28th on defense. Big changes followed, with Robert Saleh brought in to try and set things right. Let’s start with the offense. I see some improvement as Cam Ward enters his sophomore season. Drafting Carnell Tate should help, even though I personally think he was picked too high, and Wan’Dale Robinson could be useful out of the slot. My problem is that this offensive line is still well below par, which will make it tough for the skill guys to get open. Another big question mark is Brian Daboll being brought in as offensive coordinator. Whatever mojo he built in Buffalo evaporated during his time coaching the Giants — and we saw that clearly with his ex‑quarterback Daniel Jones suddenly thriving in Indianapolis. Calvin Ridley will also need to play motivated, as he feels firmly in the twilight of his underwhelming career. If you want to dig deeper into this unit, the Titans offense is still a major work in progress.
On defense, I actually love the moves they made. Saleh chose to fix that side of the ball first, and most of the money went there, with a few draft picks sprinkled in. The interior defensive line will be upgraded, and the secondary should improve. The edge rushers and linebackers, though, may still be a work in progress. This feels like a team that will play slow, avoid mistakes, and try to drag opponents into low‑scoring games — meaning unders might be the way to bet them early. For more on that identity shift, the Titans defensive rebuild is worth watching.
If the offensive line develops, we can reassess where this team belongs in 2026. But for now, I rate them about six points worse than the average team. Saleh’s presence helps, the defense should stabilize, and the offense has young talent — but until the trenches improve, this team is stuck in the mud.
My Number: 6.44
Action: Lean under
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6
