Another NFL season is here, and wow does time fly.
We’re looking to cash in on some strong opportunities in the preseason market. Betting preseason football is a different animal than the regular season. Coaching changes, preseason goals, quarterback competitions, new coordinators, rule tweaks, and—most importantly—motivation all reshape the landscape.
Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping preseason games. To predict results accurately, we need to know how these coaches have approached the preseason in the past. Some are highly motivated to win certain (or all) preseason games. Others treat them as glorified practices and couldn’t care less about the final score.
Since last season, there have been ten head coaching changes—nearly one-third of the league. A few of these coaches come with useful track records from previous stops:
- John Harbaugh (the preseason GOAT) moves to the Giants
- Kevin Stefanski (a regular-season disappointment) heads to the Atlanta Falcons
- Robert Saleh takes over the Titans after his time with the Jets
- Mike McCarthy returns from the dead with the Steelers
We’ll lean on this historical data to try to build a profitable preseason approach. Sample size still matters—I personally want at least eight games or three full preseason campaigns before drawing firm conclusions about a coach’s tendencies.
The split is clear:
Bullish coaches (those who care about winning) typically play a heavy dose of their 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-stringers. They evaluate depth players more during training camp and OTAs, stick to basic, non-revealing play designs, and treat the games as real contests.
Bearish coaches (those who don’t care) often throw their worst players into the fire to decide roster spots during the games themselves. They’re freer with experimental plays, new schemes, and offseason concepts that may never see the light of day in September.
Understanding which camp a coach falls into is the foundation of sharp preseason handicapping.
Unfortunately, coaches come and go and every year we seem to lose at least one money maker. After last season we had to say goodbye to coach Mike Tomlin who was a huge 43-24 in the preseason at 64%. Mike cared so much about winning meaningless games that he was just happy to finish around .500in the regular season for almost every year of his life. On the other side of things, we had to say goodbye to fade candidate Raheem Morris who was 5-13 at 27%. Rumor has it that Raheem secretly was trying to win all of these games. Ok, but on a serious note, the good news is that Robert Saleh is back who left the Jets with a strong 10-2 preseason record at 83%. Show me the money!
For 2026, some of the most winning coaches who will be paying our bills will be:
- Demeco Ryans at 7-3 at 70% – Creeping into my pending bets.
- Robert Saleh at 10-2 at 83% – Guess who’s back? Back again.
- John Harbaugh at 48-16 at 75% – He has moved to the Giants for the sol purpose of winning preseason games.
Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:
- Dan Quinn at 7-20 at 26% – losing is the best offense.
- Kevin O’Connell at 4-8 at 33% – No more JJ McCarthy memes please.
- Zac Taylor at 4-14 at 22% – It is better to get Joe injured during the regular season.
There also is a lot of up and comers with coaches like Dave Canales at 1-5, as well as Kellen Moore at 0-2.
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. We must be cognizant enough to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Looking in the past for many of these coaches, they use to have four preseason games rather than three. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 16-2 in game one but only 10-8 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Another look is Dan Quinn who is 1-11 in the middle weeks or what is now looked at as week 2, yet 4-3 in the final week. Another coach to look at Sean Payton who is 20-11 in the middle weeks yet 6-11 in the final. Mike McCarthy is only 6-12 in week one yet 19-11 in the middle weeks. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2026.
The preseason schedule remains just three games. Even though this format is still relatively new, I don’t believe it meaningfully changes how coaches approach the first, middle, or final game based on their historical tendencies.
Other factors still drive preseason outcomes: quarterback competitions, player age, new coaching staffs, and injuries. The biggest line moves usually revolve around which quarterback is starting and what the coaching staff signals through comments and in-game decisions.
Teams like the Browns will feature multiple motivated quarterbacks battling for the starting job. Teams like the Packers may limit Jordan Love to just a few drives. Veteran players often see little or no preseason action—sometimes due to a minor (or soft) injury designation, and sometimes because neither the team nor the player wants to risk anything unnecessary. We saw this with Matthew Stafford last season.
New coaches tend to be more motivated to win their first preseason game, aiming to set an early tone. I disagree with the philosophy, but it’s human nature to want to start on the right foot.
Injuries also play a major role. If a key veteran or high draft pick goes down, a coach may pull the remaining starters and finish the preseason with players who have little chance of making the roster.
Finally, when betting preseason football, avoid laying points in most cases. Stick primarily to plus-dogs or moneylines. There is no overtime in the preseason, so teams rarely push hard to force a late tie or a high-percentage field goal in extra time. Laying points can be dangerous unless something is clearly and significantly off.
In summary, preseason football can be profitable if you understand how coaches approach these games and what each team is truly trying to accomplish.
Questions? Feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
