🏈 NIU vs Iowa -31.5 O/U 44.5
— Full Game Preview (with advanced stats)
📍 Game Info
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Date: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026
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Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City
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Kickoff: 4:15 PM ET
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TV: BTN
🔍 Team Statistical Profiles (2025)
Northern Illinois (3–9 in 2025)
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Offense: 285.9 YPG (130th)
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Passing: 98.8 YPG (132nd)
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Rushing: 187.1 YPG (29th)
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Scoring: 17.1 PPG (127th)
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Defense: 357.3 YPG allowed (56th)
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Pass defense: 173.9 YPG allowed (12th — legitimately strong)
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Rush defense: 183.3 YPG allowed (112th — major weakness)
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QB situation: Wide‑open competition. Western Carolina transfer Taron “Tyger” Dickens (3,508 yards, 38 TD, 74.3% completion in FCS) is the upside play, but Brady Davidson and Jalen Macon are still in the mix.
Key skill players:
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RB Telly Johnson Jr. — 712 yards, 4 TD
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WR DeAree Rogers — 506 yards, 3 TD
Iowa (9–4 in 2025)
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Offense: 320.1 YPG (117th)
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Passing: 143.2 YPG (127th)
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Rushing: 176.9 YPG (42nd)
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Scoring: 29.3 PPG (54th)
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Defense: 280.4 YPG allowed (9th)
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Pass defense: 172.7 YPG allowed (10th)
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Rush defense: 107.7 YPG allowed (17th)
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QB situation: Kirk Ferentz will play both Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown. No starter named. Expect a scripted rotation.
Key skill players:
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RB Kamari Moulton — 878 yards, 5 TD
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RB L.J. Phillips Jr. — 1,921 yards, 19 TD at South Dakota (FCS leader)
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WR Tony Diaz — 875 yards, 11 TD
📊 Matchup Breakdown
When NIU has the ball
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NIU averaged 4.6 yards/play, but Iowa allowed 4.6 yards/play — a brutal matchup for the Huskies.
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NIU’s run‑heavy approach runs directly into Iowa’s top‑20 rush defense.
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NIU’s passing game is extremely limited at the FBS level.
Outcome: Sustaining drives will be extremely difficult. Red‑zone chances may be nearly nonexistent.
When Iowa has the ball
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Iowa’s run game (Moulton + Phillips) should exploit NIU’s 112th‑ranked rush defense.
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Iowa’s passing game is the question, but NIU’s strong pass defense won’t matter much if Iowa controls the ground game.
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Expect Iowa to keep the offense simple while rotating QBs.
🔮 Prediction
- I like the total here. Iowa has scored 34 or more points seven times last season. They scored 40+ points three times.
- NIU has a terrible defense, but they fixed their offense and will speed it up with new OC Rob Harley from Western Carolina.
- QB Taron Dickens transfer in from Western Carolina where he was 5th in passing yards last year in the FCS while playing only 9 games. Oh, and he threw 38 TDs.
- I think we get points here and Iowa might be able to do it by themselves.
Over 44.5 – 2 stars
Louisville vs Ole Miss -6.5 O/u 54.5
🏈 Louisville vs Ole Miss — Full Game Preview
Date: Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET (ABC) Rankings: Ole Miss #9, Louisville #24
📊 Team Statistical Profiles (2025)
🔴 Louisville Cardinals
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Offense: 384.5 YPG (69th)
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Passing: 220.6 (75th)
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Rushing: 163.9 (59th)
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Scoring: 29.9 PPG (46th)
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Defense: 303.1 YPG allowed (16th)
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Pass: 188.8 (24th)
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Rush: 114.3 (23rd)
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Key players:
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QB Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State transfer)
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RB Isaac Brown — 884 yards, 7 TD
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RB Keyjuan Brown — 704 yards, 6 TD
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WR Dacari Collins — 974 yards, 6 TD
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DE Clev Lubin — 59 tackles, 8.5 sacks
🔵 Ole Miss Rebels
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Offense: 489.7 YPG (10th)
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Passing: 313.3 (3rd)
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Rushing: 176.3 (44th)
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Scoring: 36.9 PPG (10th)
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Defense: 348 YPG allowed (48th)
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Pass: 198.9 (37th)
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Rush: 149.1 (69th)
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Key players:
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QB Trinidad Chambliss — 3,937 yards, 22 TD, 527 rush yards, 8 TD
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RB Kewan Lacy — 1,567 yards, 24 TD (Doak Walker finalist)
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WR Deuce Alexander — 684 yards
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LB TJ Dottery — 98 tackles
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LB Suntarine Perkins — 81 tackles, 4.5 sacks
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
When Louisville has the ball
Louisville’s offense is balanced, but the rebuilt offensive line is a concern. Ole Miss’ defense isn’t elite statistically, but Dottery and Perkins give them a disruptive second level.
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Louisville’s best path: run game + play‑action
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Ole Miss’ weakness: rush defense (69th)
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Louisville’s risk: Kienholz facing pressure behind a new OL
When Ole Miss has the ball
Chambliss + Lacy is one of the nation’s best QB/RB duos. Louisville’s defense is strong, but Ole Miss’ vertical passing game stresses even good secondaries.
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Louisville’s strength: top‑25 pass defense
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Ole Miss’ advantage: explosive passing + returning production
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Key battle: Louisville’s two‑high shells vs Ole Miss’ wide‑split vertical game
📈 Model & Prediction Insights
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FPI: Louisville win probability 26.4%
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SP+: Louisville win probability 36%
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Sagarin: Louisville win probability 31%
These models consistently favor Ole Miss by roughly one score.
🔮 Prediction
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Can we trust Pete Golding as a new coach yet? Not sure. I love Trinidad Chambliss, but I also like Louisville’s quarterback Lincoln Kienholz coming from Ohio State.
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This team Cardinals ranks 4th in the net transfer portal rankings and they are the real team that can push Miami in the ACC.
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Louisville was 10th in defensive EPA last season. Decent returning production.
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Jeff Brohm is 37-15 ATS as an underdog for his career as a head coach (WKU, Purdue, Louisville). That’s about 71%.
Louisville +6.5 – 2 stars
