🍺 Weekly Recap
Best Bets sit at 4‑4‑1 after a 1‑1‑1 week, and once again the board taught us a few things. First: UTSA still doesn’t play defense, but it flat‑out doesn’t matter in the Alamodome. That offense is a runaway train. They spotted Colorado State 14 points, shrugged, and still nearly covered the 14‑point spread. And credit to CSU — they’re way ahead of schedule. Their win total was 3.5, they’re on the road with a backup quarterback, and they’re still throwing punches.
Then there’s UConn. UConn, UConn, UConn. They jumped out 14‑0, let Miami back in, traded haymakers, and somehow landed right where the number said they should. Neither team has a pass defense, so it turned into a track meet. We were a little lucky, sure — but these teams are damn near equals, and if you grabbed the hook, you cashed.
Auburn… yeah, that one hurt. Every week I convince myself Byrum Brown and that offense are about to wake up, and every week they hit the snooze button. They should’ve cruised past 9.5, but the second half was a brick wall. If they can’t move the ball against that Vandy defense, I don’t see them being very competitive in the SEC this season.
🔥 Best Bets
Temple Owls (1-3) at USF Bulls (4-0)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: USF -6.5
Current Line: USF -6.5
Analysis: Temple is catching 6.5, and as I’m writing this those numbers are starting to disappear. The Owls have blown two straight games — a late lead against Toledo that slipped away in overtime, and then another late collapse against Army. They’re due for something to finally break their way.
USF, meanwhile, keeps doing the same thing every week: playing down to their competition. I mentioned it a few weeks ago, and last week was the perfect example. They squeaked by one of the worst teams in FBS and didn’t score a single point until the fourth quarter. This team has talent, but they cannot pull away from anybody.
So here’s the theory: Temple is due for a win. USF is due for a loss. And even if USF manages to survive again, it’s hard to see them winning by margin when they haven’t shown the ability to separate from anyone.
With the 6.5 still hanging around — barely — I’ll take the points.
Pick: Temple (+6.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) at Georgia State Panthers (3-1)
Location: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: Old Dominion -1.5
Current Line: Georgia State -2.5
Analysis: Georgia State and Old Dominion have opened the season heading in completely opposite directions. Georgia State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Sun Belt, while Old Dominion has been one of the biggest disappointments. And unlike the Temple–USF matchup, I don’t expect that trend to flip here.
ODU should get their starting quarterback back this week, but this is also their first time leaving the state of Virginia all season. Now they have to go down to Atlanta and deal with a Georgia State team that’s playing with confidence and rhythm. The Monarchs’ offense still hasn’t found its footing, and while they should improve as the season goes on, this is not the spot — not on the road, not against a team that’s clicking early.
Georgia State should be able to keep the momentum rolling and control enough of this game to win by at least a field goal.
Pick: Georgia State (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 11:00 PM EST
Channel: FOX
Opening Line: Arizona -7.5
Current Line: Arizona -6.5
Analysis: If you live in the Midwest, you’ve probably never walked out your front door at 11:00 PM into a brisk 90‑degree evening — and then tried to play a football game in it. That’s exactly what Cincinnati is about to deal with in Tucson.
Cincy’s had a great start to the season, but this matchup is a problem. They’ve been feasting on shitty run defenses, bullying teams they physically outmatch. Now they finally have to leave home, fly across the country, and run into an Arizona front that actually knows how to stop the run — all while baking in desert heat that doesn’t cool off at night.
The way to beat this Arizona defense is over the top, and I don’t trust JC French to do that for four quarters. If Cincinnati can’t dominate on the ground, they’re going to be stuck in long passing downs, and that’s where Arizona’s defense thrives.
I’ll take the Cats under a touchdown, holding down home field and handing the Bearcats their first loss of the year.
Pick: Arizona (-6.5)
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