The 2027-2028 college basketball season is once again marked by a wave of coaching changes. For sports bettors and college hoops fans alike, we understand just how pivotal coaching is when it comes to forecasting game outcomes. One of the most influential factors? Pace of play.
Pace directly impacts point differentials and total scoring, making it a key metric in evaluating team performance. To help make sense of it all, I’ve categorized each team’s projected pace into five tiers: Very Fast, Medium Fast, Medium, Medium Slow, and Very Slow. Teams with insufficient data are marked as NA.
These projections are based on coaching affiliations and historical trends—not guarantees, but informed estimates. Below are the coaching changes along with my pace-of-play projections for the upcoming season.
If I put a color on the team name, it means a pretty substantial change. Red means faster and blue means slower. Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.
Pace Rankings:
0 – 40 Very Fast
41 – 130 Medium Fast
131 – 240 Medium
241 to 320 Medium Slow
321 to 365 Very Slow
College Coaches: Out / In
Schools: 49 new coaching changes
Air Force: Joe Scott / Joe Crispin – Medium Slow to Medium – going from a pace ranking 242nd, I think Joe Crispin’s time under Mike Rhoades puts him at a medium pace around the 170s.
Akron: John Groce / Dustin Ford – Very Fast to Very Fast – As John heads over to Charleston, Dustin Ford get’s a promotion from long time assistant and I do not expect any pace changes ranking in the 30s.
Alabama State: Tony Madlock / Chris Wright – Medium Fast to Very Slow – Chris Wright comes from Division 2 Langston where their games averaged 132.5 points per game. I think very slow ranking in the 330s.
Arizona State: Bobby Hurley / Randy Bennett – Medium Fast to Very Slow – Randy Bennett has entered the Big 12 after over 23 years at St Mary’s. Expect his style of play to be SUPER SLOW ranking in the 340s!
Ball State: Michael Lewis / Chris Capko – Very Slow to Medium Fast – From Very slow play ranking 345 in pace, Chris comes from the Andy Enfield tree of knowledge that is known for a pretty fast Tempo ranking in the 90s.
Belmont: Casey Alexander / Evan Bradds – Medium Fast to Medium – Big promotion to Kansas State for Casey and well overdue. Evan Bradds comes in from a 1 year stint at Duke. He played for Belmont, but I expect him to start out at a medium pace. in the 150s.
Boston College: Earl Grant / Luke Murray – Medium Slow to Very Slow – It’s not like Boston College wasn’t bad, but they also played slow. Luke Murray comes from being an assistant at UCONN who also plays pretty slow. I think pace in the 320s.
Butler: Thad Motta / Ronald Nored – Medium Fast to Medium – Ronald comes from the NBA and it’s been way too long since he assisted in Northern Kentucky to get a good grasp of projected tempo. I default to Medium with low confidence.
Cal Baptist: Rick Croy / Kyle Getter – Medium Slow to Medium Slow – Kyle spent time under Micah Shrewsberry at Notre Dame which also had a low pace ranking int he 260s. I expect the same.
Cal State Bakersfield: Mike Scott/ Todd Lee – Medium Fast to Medium – Mike had a fast tempo ranking 43rd in the nation. Todd Lee used to coach South Dakota where he was all over the place in tempo ratings. I expect them to slow down to medium with tempo ranking in the 120s.
Campbell: John Andrzejek / Jimmie Williams – Medium Fast to Medium – The Fighting Camels ranked 58th in pace. Jimmie Williams was at Furman back in 2018 to 2022 as an assistant when Furman had a medium pace, but I expect it a little faster yet still medium with tempo ranking in the 140s.
Charleston: Chris Mack / John Groce – Medium to Very Fast – This is a no brainer as John Groce was burning it up at Akron and will have pace at Charleston ranking in the 20s.
Charlotte: Aaron Fearne / Wes Miller – Very Slow to Medium – From pace ranking 349th, Wes Miller comes in from Cincinnati was was 167th in tempo. I expect a big speed upgrade to medium.
Cincinnati: Wes Miller / Jerrod Calhoun– Medium to Medium Fast – Jerrod had Utah State at a medium pace, but his seconds per possession were pretty high as his defense slowed down the Mountain West conference. I think Tempo might hit the 120s.
Creighton: Greg McDermott / Alan Huss – Medium to Medium – Alan Huss played pretty fast the first year in his two year stint at High Point, but he slowed it down the second year to a 230th ranking. Medium pace is the prediction in the 170s.
Dartmouth: David McLaughlin / Brett MacConnell – Medium Fast to Medium – Brett Spent most of his assistant years at Princeton before a one year stint at Stanford. During those years, they had a medium pace averaging in the 160s.
Eastern Michigan: Stan Heath / Billy Donlon – Medium to Very Slow – From a pace ranking 229th which was medium ish, Stan gets canned for Billy Donlon who coached slowly at Kansas City and was an assistant at Clemson who was also very slow.
Florida International: Jeremy Ballard / Joey Cantens – Very Fast to Medium Fast – From pace ranking 12th in the nation, Joey Cantens comes in from Daytona State who had an average total of 151. I will call that Medium Fast ranking in the 60s.
Georgia State: Jonas Hayes / Jon Cremins – Medium to Medium Fast – Jon Cremlins last few years was behind Mark Byington at Vanderbilt who had a pretty fast pace. I think this year it’s faster for the Panthers in a weaker conference. Pace projected in the 60s.
Georgia Tech: Damon Stoudamire / Scott Cross –Very Fast to Medium Slow – Damon couldn’t hack it kinda like in the NBA, but his pace was a lighting 25 ranking in the nation. Scott Cross comes from Troy who will slow it down a ton. I project tempo in the 290s.
Jackson State: Mo Williams / Trey Johnson – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – This is a promotion situation as Mo Williams resigned for Trey Johnson to take over. Medium Fast pace in the 90s is what they are.
Kansas City: Marvin Menzies / Mark Turgeon – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – From Tempo ranking a speedy 56th in the nation, Mark Turgeon rises from the dead. His time in Maryland played pretty slow, but that is what the big 10 does in general. I expect a slower pace, but ranking in the 250s.
Kansas State: Jerome Tang / Casey Alexander – Very Fast to Medium Fast – Jerome Tang was canned last year in February, but at the time he had a blazing ranking of 6th in tempo. As discussed earlier, Casey Alexander had belmont ranking in the 90s in pace. I project the 70s.
Lamar: Alvin Brooks / Jordan Fee – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – From Tempo ranking 275th in the nation, Jordan Fee comes in from an assistant role at FAU under Dusty May and John Jackus who had some pretty fast pace over the past few years. I expect tempo all the way up to ranking in the 90s.
Little Rock: Darrell Walker / Travis Ford – Medium to Medium Fast – From pace ranking 223rd, Travis Ford comes in from the Billikens as a demotion to bring this team up.
Louisiana-Monroe: Phil Cunningham / Ryan Cross – Very Fast to Medium Fast – Phil Cunningham had this team blazing ranking 38th in Tempo. They will not slow down much as Ryan Cross comes in from an assistant role at UAB under Andy Kennedy who ran them medium fast. I project pace in the 70s.
LSU: Matt McMahon / Will Wade – Medium to Medium Fast – Will has Waded his way back into LSU. His teams play pretty fast so I project tempo ranking in the 70s from being 222nd with Mike McMahon.
Mississippi Valley State: George Ivory / Mike Davis – Medium to Medium – The Delta Devils were one of the worst teams in basketball and nobody wanted to coach them until March when Mike Davis came in. He coached at Detroit for a while before this. He will not change a medium type pace I project in the 210s.
NC State: Will Wade / Justin Gainey – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – I project a pretty big change here as Justin Gainey comes from being an assistant under Rick Barnes at Tennessee. Pace goes from ranking 85th to about the 290s from my estimations.
North Carolina: Hubert Davis / Michael Malone – Medium to Medium – Michael Malone comes from the NBA which means that this could go any direction. Surprisingly enough, Hubie’s last year slowed the pace down to Medium and UNC was a huge “unders” team. I think medium pace ranking in the 170s with a low confidence.
Northern Illinois: Rashon Burno / Matt Majkrzak – Medium to Medium Fast – From pace ranking 177th, Matt Majkrzak comes in from coaching at Northern Michigan where the average final score went to about 148. I expect tempo to rank in the 110s.
Northern Iowa: Ben Jacobson / Kyle Green – Very Slow to Medium – Northern Iowa was a HUGE unders team ranking 364th in tempo. Kyle Green comes in from an assistant role at Iowa State who had a medium-ish pace over the last two years. I expect the same.
Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle / Justin Joyner – Medium Slow – Medium Fast – The Beave’s ranked 301st in Tempo last season, but Justin comes in from a history of being an assistant at St Mary’s who played very slow, and then Michigan who ranked 22nd in Tempo. I will guess his tempo will be in the 100s with a low confidence as his last stop won a Natty.
Pepperdine: Ed Schilling / Griff Aldrich – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – From Tempo ranking 109th, Griff took a year off after coaching at Longwood. His Tempo last ranked 81st, so the tempo ranking in the 80s is the best prediction here.
Providence: Kim English / Bryan Hodgson – Very Fast to Very Fast – The Friars ranked 18th in pace which is slippery fast, but Bryan Hodgson comes from South Florida who last season ranked 16th in pace. I expect the same in pace in the 20s.
Saint Mary’s: Randy Bennett / Mickey McConnell – Medium Slow to Very Slow – Last year was Randy Bennett’s fastest slow team at 310th in Tempo. That happens when defenses in the WCC completely suck. Either way, I expect a super slow tempo ranking in the 340s under Mickey who was under Randy since 2019.
San Diego: Steve Lavin / JR Blount – Medium to Medium – From Pace ranking at 140th, JR Blount comes in from an assistant role at Iowa State. He will slow it down some, but preach defense first. I expect Tempo to rank in the 190s.
Siena: Gerry McNamara / Nevada Smith – Medium Slow to Medium Fast– Gerry goes back home to Syracuse after ranking a slow 320th in tempo. Nevada Smith comes from an assistant role under Shaka Smart at Marquette who plays up-tempo ball. I expect a huge jump in tempo to the 90s.
South Florida: Bryan Hodgson / Chris Mack – Very Fast to Medium Fast – As we know, Hodgson had this team cooking ranking 16th in Tempo. While Chris Mack played slower last season, most of his time had Charleston ranking in the 50s in Tempo. I will assume rankings in the 60s.
St. Bonaventure: Mark Schmidt / Mike MacDonald – Medium to Medium Slow – Mark retires with his last year’s tempo ranking 183rd. Mike MacDonald comes from Canisius and didn’t play very fast and I suspect rankings in the 230th in Tempo.
Syracuse: Adrian Autry / Gerry McNamara – Medium to Medium Slow – Gerry McNamera played in that old school 2-3 zone under Jim Boeheim. I expect him to slow it down like Jim did and play great defense. Gerry had Siena playing pretty slow over the last two seasons as well.
Tarleton State: Billy Gillispie / Eric Haut – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – From pace ranking a pretty fast 78th in the nation, Erick Haut comes in from an assistant role at Utah State and before that, a role at Northern Kentucky. These teams tended to play a bit slower. I have pace projected in the 210s.
Tennessee Tech: John Pelphrey / Tobin Anderson – Medium to Medium Fast – John had his tema ranking 231th in Tempo. I expect Tobin to speed it up some like he did at Iona.
Texas Rio Grande Valley: Kahil Fennell / Brandon Chambers – Medium Slow to NA – Last season, UT Rio had pace ranking 234th. I have no idea what Brandon Chambers will do as he comes from an assistant NC State who played pretty fast, yet right before that an assistant at McNeese State who played slow.
Troy: Scott Cross / Adam Howard – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – From tempo ranking a slow 313th, Adam Howard comes in from an assistant role at NC State under Will Wade, and before that, an assistant role at Nebraska under Fred Hoiberg which makes me think that the tempo will speed up to the 100s.
UNC Greensboro: Mike Jones / Jarod Haase – Medium to Medium – From Tempo ranking 163rd, Jarod Haase come from Stanford who had his team all over the board, yet medium makes the most sense for 2026/2027. I expect tempo ranking in the 150s
Utah State: Jerrod Caloun / Ben Jacobson – Medium to Very Slow – Calhoun’s team was awesome on defense enough to slow the Utah State tempo down to a ranking of 169th last year. They used to play up-tempo, but now with Ben Jacobs from Northern Iowa, this team is going to crawl ranking in the 350s in tempo.
Weber State: Eric Duft / Kaleb Canales– Medium Fast to Medium – From tempo ranking at 117th in the league, Kaleb Canales comes in from Troy who played pretty slow. The truth is that Kaleb has been all over the place including the NBA, so it’s hard to tell his motives. I project medium pace ranking in the 230s.
Western Michigan: Dwayne Stephens / Kahil Fennell – Medium to Medium – From Tempo ranking 160th, Kahil Fennell from may slow it down some as he comes from UT Rio Grande. The pace drop will not be significant ranking in the 220s.
Largest changes – Slow to Fast:
Ball State: Michael Lewis / Chris Capko – Very Slow to Medium Fast – From Very slow play ranking 343 in pace, Chris comes from the Andy Enfield tree of knowledge that is known for a pretty fast Tempo ranking in the 90s.
Charleston: Chris Mack / John Groce – Medium to Very Fast – This is a no brainer as John Groce was burning it up at Akron and will have pace at Charleston ranking in the 20s.
Cincinnati: Wes Miller / Jerrod Calhoun– Medium to Medium Fast – Jerrod had Utah State at a medium pace, but his seconds per possession were pretty high as his defense slowed down the Mountain West conference. I think Tempo might hit the 120s.
Lamar: Alvin Brooks / Jordan Fee – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – From Tempo ranking 275th in the nation, Jordan Fee comes in from an assistant role at FAU under Dusty May and John Jackus who had some pretty fast pace over the past few years. I expect tempo all the way up to ranking in the 90s.
Northern Iowa: Ben Jacobson / Kyle Green – Very Slow to Medium – Northern Iowa was a HUGE unders team ranking 364th in tempo. Kyle Green comes in from an assistant role at Iowa State who had a medium-ish pace over the last two years. I expect the same.
Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle / Justin Joyner – Medium Slow – Medium Fast – The Beave’s ranked 301st in Tempo last season, but Justin comes in from a history of being an assistant at St Mary’s who played very slow, and then Michigan who ranked 22nd in Tempo. I will guess his tempo will be in the 100s with a low confidence as his last stop won a Natty.
Siena: Gerry McNamara / Nevada Smith – Medium Slow to Medium Fast– Gerry goes back home to Syracuse after ranking a slow 320th in tempo. Nevada Smith comes from an assistant role under Shaka Smart at Marquette who plays up-tempo ball. I expect a huge jump in tempo to the 90s.
Troy: Scott Cross / Adam Howard – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – From tempo ranking a slow 313th, Adam Howard comes in from an assistant role at NC State under Will Wade, and before that, an assistant role at Nebraska under Fred Hoiberg which makes me think that the tempo will speed up to the 100s.
Largest Changes – Fast to Slow:
Alabama State: Tony Madlock / Chris Wright – Medium Fast to Very Slow – Chris Wright comes from Division 2 Langston where their games averaged 132.5 points per game. I think very slow ranking in the 330s.
Arizona State: Bobby Hurley / Randy Bennett – Medium Fast to Very Slow – Randy Bennett has entered the Big 12 after over 23 years at St Mary’s. Expect his style of play to be SUPER SLOW ranking in the 340s!
Eastern Michigan: Stan Heath / Billy Donlon – Medium to Very Slow – From a pace ranking 229th which was medium ish, Stan gets canned for Billy Donlon who coached slowly at Kansas City and was an assistant at Clemson who was also very slow.
Georgia Tech: Damon Stoudamire / Scott Cross –Very Fast to Medium Slow – Damon couldn’t hack it kinda like in the NBA, but his pace was a lighting 25 ranking in the nation. Scott Cross comes from Troy who will slow it down a ton. I project tempo in the 290s.
Kansas City: Marvin Menzies / Mark Turgeon – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – From Tempo ranking a speedy 56th in the nation, Mark Turgeon rises from the dead. His time in Maryland played pretty slow, but that is what the big 10 does in general. I expect a slower pace, but ranking in the 250s.
NC State: Will Wade / Justin Gainey – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – I project a pretty big change here as Justin Gainey comes from being an assistant under Rick Barnes at Tennessee. Pace goes from ranking 85th to about the 290s from my estimations.
Utah State: Jerrod Caloun / Ben Jacobs– Medium to Very Slow – Calhoun’s team was awesome on defense enough to slow the Utah State tempo down to a ranking of 169th last year. They used to play up-tempo, but now with Ben Jacobs from Northern Iowa, this team is going to crawl ranking in the 350s in tempo.
