I have my eyes on a matchup in the Southland Conference where Abilene Christian is on the road tonight taking on LAMAR. The current line has Abilene Christian favored by 1. This is worth a look in my opinion. KenPom rates Abilene Christian as the 162nd adjusted offense and 189th ranked adjusted defense. These rankings out of 353 teams are noteworthy given that the Southland Conference is not one that catches most of our eyes.
Abilene Christian has a 52.7% effective FG% (EFP) as compared to LAMAR at 46.9%. I consider that gap to be statistically significant with a -1 pt spread. Additionally, take LAMAR’s relatively mediocre offensive efficiency and match it up against Abilene Christian’s defense who gives up an average of 66.8 ppg whereas LAMAR is surrendering 75.9 ppg and opponents shoot 53.2% EFP. Abilene Christian outscores their opponents on the season by 4.5 pts, compared to LAMAR with a -3.2 score margin.
I use a blended composite power rating system, where I blend several solid CBB power rating systems, and weight them according to my confidence in their numbers and further now add special weight to in-conference play. My power rating line has Abilene Christian favored by almost 9 pts on a neutral, and it is up to each sports bettor to determine what kind of home court advantage you would provide a specific team, from a specific conference, in any specific matchup. Even if you take the so-called average home court advantage of 3/3.18/3.5 pts here, there is line value. Given LAMAR’s lackluster defensive statistics and their tempo, this has a slight potential for an over consideration with the total currently sitting at 141. There is some correlation in my opinion when we get to conference play with teams of above average tempo and small spreads to overs. The theory here is that there could be some back and forth action with lead changes which tends to support higher scoring affairs than average statistics.
PLAY: Abilene Christian -1
LEAN: Over 141
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