Take a trip with me to Seattle, Washington tonight and consider backing the short 3.5 point road favorite in Utah Valley University (19-8) as they face Seattle University (15-12). ATS trends support this play significantly. For UVU, they are covering the number with a record of 16-9 on the season, 8-4 in conference play, 5-0 L5, 8-2 L10, and 10-5 on the road. Conversely, while Seattle has cashed some tickets on the season (12-13), they are just 2-10 in conference play, 1-4 L5 and 2-8 the L10.
Trends, typically, are never enough to support a play for me. I took a look at both teams’ strength of schedule (SOS) and efficiency matrices on KenPom. UVU has the 71st ranked offensive efficiency (OE) compared to 246 for Seattle. What is more striking about these comparisons is the fact that Seattle’s meager 246th ranking comes against opponents whose defensive efficiency (DE) rank 313th in the country! UVU has faced opponents on average who rank 58 spots higher in KenPom’s SOS rating on the season than opponents which Seattle has played.
This time of the year, conference statistics are very important. In conference play, UVU’s offense scores at a rate of 112.9/100 possessions. They play a tempo that provides more possessions per game than Seattle, who is only scoring at a rate of 95.6/100 possessions. UVU has the 4th ranked defense in the conference, and the margins here are such that make me confident in UVU when asked this one question: Given these statistics, which team has a potential to play at or worse/better than their average production thus far? The answer is clearly UVU here, and with a 3.5 point spread, it is worth a play to me. UVU ranks first in the conference in 3pt %, 2pt %, FTA/FGA, effective FG%, and OE.
KenPom provides player states with offensive ratings. I like to look at the total numbers from the top 6 players in percentage of contribution. If the numbers are significantly different, I tend to feel more confident in the other statistics that favor my play. Here, the top six players for UVU outrank the top six from Seattle by 40 points. 10 or more to me is worth considering.
My blended power rating has UVU favored by 9 without home court factored in. How much home court do you give in a situation like this? That is up to you to decide, but is Seattle’s home court worth 4.5 points? I personally don’t bet on it having that much significance tonight.
The market reaction also supports this play. When I looked at the information provided by The Action app, it showed that 64% of the tickets are on UVU, but 80% of the money. I asked myself: How many members of the general public have their eyes set on this match up tonight? The fact that 80% of the money this early in the market is on UVU here but not an equivalent percentage of the pick percentage leads me to this conclusion: Early action is likely the sharp action here and the fact that more money than the ticket percentage has been laid can usually mean sharp action has laid a higher percentage of the money.
Play: Utah Valley University -3.5 (2 units)
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