Florida State vs Gonzaga -7.5 O/U 147
A lot can be said about Gonzaga’s amazing season this year. Some say they are the best team on paper. Some say that their schedule and conference was too easy. I think that I am someone more in the middle. The Zags had an amazing year averaging 52.3 % shooting away from home and outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points. Saying all of that doesn’t sound so great when looking at the full slate of competition but they did beat a healthy Duke on a neutral court. Florida State on the other hand had a real man’s schedule ranking 29th on Kenpom beating non-conference opponents like LSU, Purdue and Florida while playing in the ACC. The Seminals average 43.4 shooting percentage on the road outscoring opponents by 4.6 Their only losses have been to Duke and North Carolina since that little hick-up that they had in mid-January. My biggest concern for the Seminals is that Gonzaga is a faster paced team and that is the only profile that Florida State seems to struggle against when you saw them play Duke and UNC. On the other hand, Florida State is very tall and that is something that Gonzaga doesn’t see every day. The Seminols are also very deep team and should be able to rotate guys in like Chris Koumadje and PJ Savoy when their team gets a little gassed or in foul trouble against the Zags which I think will be key. Florida State has a 10 player deep rotation. The only top 25 teams that the Zags have faced is North Carolina, Tennessee and Duke and they only won 1 of those games. Florida State also plays a bit slower which we saw Gonzaga struggle against that profile vs St. Mary’s. I think the height and the stingy Seminals defense should be enough to not only cover this spread but to actually have a shot at winning this game.
Florida State +7.5 and ML
Purdue vs Tennessee -1- O/U 146.5
This should be a great game! Both of these teams are less than 250 miles away from Louisville and you can expect a 50/50 fan split. Purdue in the past has been a bad NCAA tournament team. Matt Painter has taken a lot of crap for it in the past but this year looks more promising. I like Purdue a lot this year. They have an NBA player in Carson Edwards, they have some serious height down low, they rebound the ball very well ranking 18th in offensive rebounds. The big problem that I have against Purdue is that they supposedly shoot bad on the road ranking only 41.2% and outscoring their opponents by only .6 points. Seeing what they have done in the tournament against Villanova and Old Dominion shows differently. Tennessee on the other hand is one of my play-on teams ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and a huge 49.6% road shooting percentage outscoring opponents by 5.8 points. The problem with the Vols is that they have had some hot and cold spells and falter against the good 3 point shooting teams. Their coach Rick barns also has a bad tournament record and seems unable to ever get bast the sweet 16. Tennessee is great at everything offensively but can’t seem to rebound the ball well and they only rank 207th in defending the 3. Purdue relies on the 3 and it makes up about 45% of their shots led by Ryan Cline and Carson Edwards. With Purdue’s height and 3 point shooting ability there are some clear mismatches in this game that if the Boilermakers are on, the Vols could be in for some serious trouble. As long as Purdue can step it up on defense I think that they have a better shot than Tennessee in winning this game.
Lean Purdue ML
Texas Tech vs Michigan -2 O/U 126
Well I know what everyone is thinking here. Under right? These 2 teams rank number 1 and 2 on Kenpom in defensive efficiency. Well the problem with the under is that both of these teams, even though they play very slow, are able to put up some serious points if need be. Michigan has a top 20 offense on Kenpom and Texas Tech hasn’t scored under 70 points since February 9th at Oklahoma. Michigan shoots 44.6% on the road and outscores opponents by 9 points while Texas Tech shoots 43.9% on the road outscoring opponents by 4.9. Michigan has for sure had the harder schedule and the proven coach but don’t sleep on Chris Beard.. The Red Raiders have beaten some very good teams this year and that defense looked unstoppable vs Buffalo. Both of these team have played very well on neutral floors this year. My raw numbers have this game Michigan 64.5 to Texas Tech 64. I think that this game is going to go down to who wants it more and being that Michigan was a final 4 team last year, I have to think that Tech could be more motivated but I am not convinced on a side or total at these numbers.
Lean Texas Tech and lean over
Oregon vs Virginia -8.5 O/U 119
Well this is certainly a low total for a high spread. This game has the most variance on what could happen here. Sharp money is on Oregon and the under. On paper, Oregon was a fade team shooting only 42.1% away from home and only outscoring opponents by 1.6 points in a weak Pac-12. Well they proved a lot of people wrong this year winning their last few games by about 20 points or so. The Ducks are certainly the hottest team in College Basketball and that top recruiting talent has finally come to fruition over the last few weeks. Teams have really seemed to struggle scoring against the Duck’s match-up zone defense. Virginia on the other hand is more experienced and still feels the sting of that first round loss as a 1 seed from last year. The Cavaliers have the largest variance of road points scoring 74.1 on the road and only allowing 57.5. They shoot 47.7% away from home. Raw numbers have Virginia by about 9.5 points but I think you have to look at just the last 3 weeks to cap this game correctly. I think after watching what Oregon’s huge front court did to Wisconsin which is supposedly the number 3 defense in the league tells me that they should be able to put some points up vs Virginia here. I think this large of a spread with the small size of this total warrants a small play but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Virginia come out hot and blow this team out either….
Oregon +8.5 and small ML
