The AFC North – Somehow got two teams into the playoffs last year after this division faced a lot of adversity. The Steelers had an aging quarterback and a bad offensive line, the Ravens pretty much injured everyone trying to win preseason games, and the Browns… Well, they turned back into the Browns with some bad coaching and a banged up Baker Mayfield. The Bengals really benefited from all of this turmoil, but should we expect them to repeat as division winner this year? We shall see. One thing that I know is that this division has had no coaching changes and it will be very interesting to see who comes out on top. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC South which I would call a medium type setup for their schedule. Let’s not forget that the whole AFC plays the extra at large away game vs the NFC.
- Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.94
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ New York Giants, @ Jacksonville, vs Denver
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: S Deshon Elliott, CB Athony Averett, C Bradley Bozeman, WR Sammy Watkins, DT Brandon Williams, DE Justin Houston, IL LJ Fort
Key additions: FS Marcus Williams, RT Morgan Moses, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Davis
Key Draft Picks: S Kyle Hamilton, C Tyler Linderbaum, EDGE David Ojabo, TE Charlie Kolar, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis, TE Isaiah Likely and a bunch of dudes
Summary: This team started the year in shambles last year due to John Harbaugh’s stubborn ways of wanting to win in the preseason and going through tough practices. This technique is a double edged sword because it does prepare you better for the regular season when you are hitting hard, but it does open you up to more injuries and the Ravens started the season without some Offensive lineman and without their top two running backs in JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. I have to give the Ravens back some love for all the injuries last year, but they also have a very interesting schedule going through the AFC East the first four games of the season. The good news for this team is that they have an easy 4th place schedule coming into this year and they also have added more to their team than subtracted through a ton of draft picks and some good free agency moves. This team will look great coming into the season and you can see how much the Market likes them at a highly juiced 9.5 to the over in their season win total. My only issue with this team is that I do not completely trust Lamar Jackson when teams take away the middle of the field, and he is held into contain. More and more teams had figured that out and one has to wonder if Lamar can start throwing more accurately to the sidelines when needed.
My Number: 11.47
Action – Play the over
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 4.5
2. Cincinnati Bengals –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to under -120
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 10.45
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Dallas, @ Tennessee, vs Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: TE CJ Uzomah, CB Darious Phillips, CB Trae Waynes, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key additions: G Alex Cappa, RT La’el Collins, C Ted Karras, TE Hayden Hurst
Key Draft Picks: S Daxton Hill, CB Cam Taylor-Britt, DL Zachary Carter and some dudes
Summary: Looking at my last year preseason thoughts on the Bengals makes me want to kick myself. Lean under 5.5 wins? What the hell was I thinking? Well, I guess that Joe Burrow proved that he really didn’t need an offensive line to make things happen. This team won 10 games and went to the super bowl last year. Heck, they could have won game 17 vs Cleveland had they not benched their players. Once thing that I will say is that things really turned out well for the Bengals with massive injuries within the division and some big last minute wins not only during the regular season, but in the playoffs as well. Now the Bengals were very fortunate to have an easy schedule last year but this year they will be now punished with a first place schedule and some very hard at large games added to playing a healthier division. Due to this schedule, I am not going to be in the market to bet over the 10 wins, but I will say that at least their Pythagorean win total last year was 10.45. I also absolutely love how this team paid for their offensive line with some guaranteed studs instead of relying on more of a crap shoot in the draft. I expect the Bengals to be in contention for the division at some point, but in no way to I feel that they will run away with it.
My Number: 9.23
Action: Lean Under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 3.75
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the under -130
2021 Wins: 9.5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.91
Schedule: Hard – At large vs @ Philadelphia, @ Indianapolis, vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, G Trai Turner, CB Joe Haden, ILB Joe Schobert, C BJ Finney
Key additions: QB Mitch Trubisk y, ILB Myles Jack, C Mason Cole, CB Levi Wallace, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key Draft Picks: QB Kenny Pickett, WR George Pickens, Edge DeMarvin Leal and some dudes
Summary: Mike Tomlin just can’t seem to get out of the playoffs and I am sure that this Pittsburgh team burned some folks money last year with nine wins and a playoff appearance. What I will say is that this Steelers team was certainly fortunate to get the Ravens and the Browns so banged up last year and their Pythagorean win totals shows that they over achieved by a massive 2.5 games. My biggest issue with the Steelers is that they didn’t do enough in my opinion to fix their offensive line. Believe it or not, I do not think that going from an elderly, immobile Big Ben down to a very talented yet non-confident Mitch Trubisky isn’t a huge downgrade, but what I will say is that if Tomlin doesn’t use Mitch properly and allow him to run for chunks of yards, it could be a long season for the Steelers. The optimistic side of Mitch is that he played for a terrible coach in Chicago, and he looked great last year in the limited games and the preseason on the Buffalo Bills. If not Mitch, maybe Kenny Pickett turns out, but he wasn’t a top 10 pick for a reason. I will say that I do see a lot of variance with this Steelers team and it would not shock me to see something good happen in Pittsburg.
My Number: 7.21
Action – No Play
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: PULLED
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.05
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs @ Atlanta, vs LA Chargers, @ Washington
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: QB Baker Mayfield, QB Case Keenum, TE Austin Hooper, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Richard Higgens, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, CB MJ Stewart, C JC Tretter, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Malik Jackson
Key additions: QB DeShaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Taven Bryan, DE Stephen Weatherly and a bunch of low class bums
Key Draft Picks: WR David Bell and a bunch of no names
Summary: According to Wikipedia, Baker Reagan Mayfield is an American football quarterback for the Shanghai Sharks of the National Football League. Seriously, look it up. Even though he is still a Brown, I can’t see any possible way that he stays with this team. My god did he cost himself some money. Maybe even around 100 million. We shall see the fallout soon. Now the jury is completely out on DeShaun Watson after they traded for him and lost some top draft picks in doing so, but that just makes this whole situation that much more uncertain. We don’t even know what kind of suspension the NFL will instate on Watson when this is all said and done. All that I see is that this team didn’t do much in the offseason as well as in the draft, and they lost a ton of production. I am going to assume that Jacoby Brissett starts this season which doesn’t look good for the Brownies. Another thing that sucks for this team is that two of their three at large games aren’t all that easy. If there is anything good to talk about, they still have a ton of talent all over the place, and a great offensive line that they paid for last year.
My Number: 6.03
Action: Lean under for now
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -2
*Blue Means not signed
*Red Means in danger of not playing for the team
