I am starting to see a trend. South Florida, Missouri State, and Memphis all lost and failed to cover after their coaches left. And good news for us every game this week has a team whose head coach has already left or been fired. Has Christmas come early?
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State Cougars (6-6, 1-1 Pac 2) vs Utah State Aggies (6-6, 4-4 Mountain West)
Location: Boise, ID
Date, Time, Channel: December 22nd, 2:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 45 degrees, Wind 3mph, Cloudy
ATS Trends: WSU (8-4, 5-2 Underdog) USU (10-2, 4-1 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Utah State offense (46th Pass YPG, 54th Rush YPG) vs Washington State Defense (13th Pass YPG, 39th Rush YDS PG)
Key opt outs: WSU: Starting RB Kirby Vorhees USU: Starting WR Braden Pegan (Top Receiver)
Line: Open: USU ( -1.5) O/U (57.5) Current: USU (-1) O/U (49.5)
Analysis: For the second year in a row the Cougars head into a bowl without their head coach. Last season Syracuse really took it to them in the Holiday Bowl with the skeleton crew Jake Dickert left behind when he took off to Wake Forest. I do not anticipate a complete beat down considering the Cougars will allow players in the transfer portal play in this game. Even with that considered, I am not sure I am ready to buck the trend of the coachless teams in bowl games especially when coaching against a great coach on the other sideline in Bronco Mendenhall. Coaching has really mattered in these games and the staff for the Aggies has been preparing for this game while the interim coach for the Cougars Jesse Bobbit is just biding his time until he can join the staff at Iowa State. I like the pig farmer Bryson Barnes to get the W in his last collegiate game.
Pick: Utah State (-1)
- Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo Rockets (8-4, 6-2 MAC) vs Louisville Cardinals (8-4, 4-4 ACC)
Location: Boca Raton, FL
Date, Time, Channel: December 23rd, 2:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 76 degrees, Wind 14 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: Tol (9-3, 1-0 Underdog) UL (4-8, 2-7 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Who knows! Louisville has no idea who will be available at RB, WR and Toledo will most likely start a freshmen at QB and has several players in the transfer portal.
Key opt outs: Tol: 4-5 starters and also have an injured starting QB UL: Several starters including their Top wideout and running back preserving themselves for the draft. The roster for the Cardinals is up in the air!
Line: Open: UL (-8.5) O/U: 45.5 Current: UL (-6.5) O/U (44.5)
Analysis: I have no idea what to expect in this game. Louisville has their head coach but, not many playmakers left. Toledo does not have their coach and is going to missing a few players. Should we bet this game? Hell no! Will I bet this game? Probably but, I shouldn’t. The Cardinals will have their quarterback Miller Moss along with their Head Coach Jeff Brohm. This could be enough with a couple weeks of prep. I have faith in Brohm to scheme up a game plan to beat a MAC team by a measley touchdown. It is just a lean for me personally and anyone’s guess is as good as mine
Pick: Lean Louisville (-6.5)
- New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date, Time, Channel: December 23rd, 5:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: Indoors
ATS Trends: WKU( 9-3, 6-2 Favorite) USM (5-6-1, 1-2 Underdog)
Key Matchups: WKU Pass Offense (23rd YPG) vs USM Pass Defense (79th YPG). USM Pass offense (27th YPG) vs WKU Pass Defense (69th)
Key opt outs: Nothing significant as of now. WKU coach Tyson Helton lets player in the portal play. USM is worth keeping an eye on as their head coach Charles Huff has moved-on to Memphis.
Line: Open: WKU (-3) O/U (55.5) Current: WKU (-2.5) O/U (57.5)
Analysis: Well, well, well, what do we have here? It has been too long since we had a Sun Belt vs Conference USA matchup. Shockingly, CUSA is up 2-1. We also have our third bowl game in a row with a head coach out, although this is one a little different as Southern Miss has promoted their Offensive Coordinator Blake Anderson to be the new Head Coach. Two teams with explosive offense and lackluster defenses should provide for a lot of fireworks and I will be looking to bet the over on this one. It has gotten a little high but, as long as Southern Miss does not have a lot of opt-outs it is worth a play. The Golden Eagles really fell apart down the stretch. They needed one win in their last three games to clinch a Sun Belt championship game appearance and they could not get it done. It is a little contrarian but, I also lean towards the Hilltoppers to get this one done. I love their Coach Tyson Helton and I think the continuity here will give them an edge.
Pick: Over (57.5)/ Lean WKU (-2.5)
- Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: UNLV Rebels (10-3, 6-2 Mountain West) vs Ohio Bobcats (8-4, 6-2 MAC)
Location: Frisco, TX
Date, Time, Channel: December 23rd, 9:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 68 Degrees, 10 MPH gusts up to 20 MPH, Clear sky
ATS Trends: UNLV (7-6, 6-4 Favorite) Ohio (5-6-1, 1-3)
Key Matchups: UNLV Offense (10th nationally Yards per play) vs Ohio Defense ( 98th nationally Yards per play). Ohio Offense (33rd nationally yards per play) vs UNLV Defense (125th nationally yards per play)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: UNLV (-4.5) O/U: (62.5) Current: UNLV (-6.5) O/U (65.5)
Analysis: If you have watched any UNLV games this year you know you can count on scoring. The Bobcats are no slouch on the offensive side either. The Rebels are carrying a lot of momentum into this bowl game with Dan Mullen staying at the helm with commitments from his star quarterback Anthony Colandrea and star running back Jet Thomas to return next season. The same cannot be said about this Ohio Bobcats as the future of the program is shrouded in uncertainty after the departure of their head coach. Not all is lost as the Bobcats offensive stars running back Sieh Bangura and quarterback Parker Navarro are still with program. I expect a max effort here from the Bobcats but, I think the momentum the Rebels are carrying they will be looking to make a statement on what we can expect from them next season. I like the Rebs anything under a touchdown.
Pick: UNLV (-6.5)
- Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5, 4-4 ACC) vs Hawai’i Warriors (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)
Location: Honolulu, HI
Date, Time, Channel: December 24th, 8:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 76 degrees, Wind 15 MPH gusts up to 27 MPH, clear sky
ATS Trends: Cal ( 5-7, 3-3 away, 4-3 Underdog) HAW: (8-4, 6-1 home, 3-0 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Cal pass Offense and Defense (OFF: 24th YPG DEF: 37th YPG) vs Hawai’i Pass Offense and Defense ( OFF: 10th YPG DEF: 62nd YPG)
Key opt outs: HAW: leading received Jackson Harris. CAL: Best defensive player Cade Uluave (situation to monitor)
Line: Open: Cal (-1.5) O/U: (55.5) Current: HAW (-1.5) O/U: 52.5
Analysis: This might be the most Hawaiian Hawai’i bowl in the history of the game. Both starting quarterbacks are from Hawaii, Michael Alejado (HAW) and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL) and the head coaches both played quarterback at Hawai’i Timmy Chang (HAW) and Nick Rolovich (CAL). Rolovich of course being an interim coach, there had to be one! I love the matchup and all parties will be amped to play in this one so the lack of motivation will not be a factor. The O/U has come down due to the wind but, you would expect all the Hawaiians will know how to handle it. I am going to bet the over but I am going to patien as the line is moving down. I expect both quarterbacks to really show out. The loss of Warriors top receiver will certainly hurt but, getting a home game on the island against a power 4 team is a position the Warriors love to be in. I am torn on the side right now. I love the Warriors and I love Cal’s young quarterback. I could see this game going either way. If the lines keeps moving toward Hawai’i I might be inclined to take the Bears but for now I will take the over.
Pick: Over 52.5
My favorite bets for the early week slate:
Utah State (-1.5) vs Washington State
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss O/57.5
UNLV (-6.5) vs Ohio
Hawai’i vs Cal O/52.5
