I finished in the green each day last weekend(as well as Monday), and I’m looking to keep it rolling this weekend. I’ve got 3 plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+115) vs Diamondbacks–7:15 PM CT
Veteran righty Adam Wainwright will take the hill at Busch Stadium tonight in a role he’s excelled in for almost two decades. At home last year, Wainwright held a brilliant 2.74 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and allowed just 0.8 HR/9. His numbers are a bit inflated this year, but 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road; he twirled 6 shutout innings in his lone home start on Opening Day. The Diamondbacks rank just 25th in runs/game this season and are slugging at the 2nd lowest rate in the league. Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for Arizona tonight, but the lefty has really lost his stuff in recent seasons. He recorded a mere 4.67 ERA last season and also allowed 1.5 HR/9. While he has started off this season nicely, a 1.20 WHIP indicates that his ERA(currently sitting at 1.00) is anything but sustainable. There is not an offense in the league that has performed better than the Cardinals against lefties this season(.849 OPS), and the guys in this order have a great history against Bumgarner. It’s also worth noting that the Diamondbacks bullpen holds the second worst WHIP in the league and is easily one of the bullpens I love going against most. The stars seem to be aligned for a comfortable Cardinals win, so getting +115 on the run line made this an easy decision for me.
*MLB(1u): Rockies ML(-120) vs Reds–7:40 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Rockies -1.5(+160) vs Reds–7:40 PM CT
If you’ve been following the betting lines for the past few days, you’ll notice that the books are throwing out some fishy lines on Reds games. The logic seems to be that: “A 3-17 team has to turn things around at some point, right?”. I’ll say this: The Orioles lost 19 straight games at one point last season, and this does not set up as the spot(or maybe even the series) that the Reds turn things around. The Rockies might’ve just gotten swept on the road in Philadelphia, but they are an absolute juggernaut hitting at Coors Field. Reds SP Hunter Greene is a dazzling prospect and big name, but this is also just his 4th major league start. He’s given up 3 home runs through his first 3 starts, and his velocity was down 4-5 mph in his last start. The Rockies trailed only the Red Sox in home OPS last season, and given they made significant improvements to their lineup in the offseason, I expect that trend to continue. This goes without saying, but I have zero trust in the Reds bullpen given they’ve received a lot of usage in recent days and aren’t good even with rest. Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela coughs up more hits than you’d like, but he had a sub 4.00 ERA at Coors Field last year and allowed just 0.5 HR/9. The Reds play at one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league, yet they still rank 28th in OPS vs righties this season. The Rockies bullpen is slightly more fresh than Cincinnati’s and have performed well at Coors this season. I know this seems fishy, but the logic behind this line is dead wrong, especially in a sport like baseball. Just because a team needs to turn things around doesn’t mean they will. I like Rockies ML as the stronger play but will also sprinkle on the run line at a dream +160 price.
