Aqueduct Preview & Picks – G2 Red Smith Stakes – November 20, 2021

The NYRA circuit is now onto Aqueduct Race Course for the Fall/ Winter meet. The racing season dies down a bit during the next few months so there won’t be as many “big” races. However, we do have one Grade II Stakes this week with the Red Smith Stakes taking place. This is the final graded turf stakes of the New York season for males. Check out my preview and picks below:

Red Smith Stakes

Race Information:

• Track: Aqueduct (Queens, NY)
• Event Grade: Grade II
• Race: 9
• Post Time: 3:43 PM
• Length: 1 3/8 Furlongs
• Purse: $200,000
• Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Upward
• Surface: Turf
• Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers

Field:

Horse Preview:

(1) Tide of the Sea, a 5 year old Colt and son of English Channel has not had the same same success as his father did. He’s had 9 starts this year, competing in four G2 Stakes Races, failing to win any. His two wins this year came in the G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes and Japan Turf Cup Stakes. He got out to a lead early in his last race but, failed to close as he looked tired. In that race he was only coming off a few weeks of rest and will have a similar recovery period here which isn’t an encouraging sign.

(2) Value Engineering, a 5 year old Colt and son of Lemon Drop Kid has been in the money in all four of his starts this year (4-1-0-3). All four of those races have been Allowance Optional Claiming (AoC) races. He’s had some good speed figures in those races but, will lengthen out a bit here against some tougher competition. This will be his first Graded Stakes race so we’ll see how he handles the step up.

(3) Soldier Rising, a 3 year old Gelding has made the switch to the US Racing circuit earlier this year. He has raced six times this year, three times in Europe and three in the US. His first race in the States was back in August at Saratoga where he finished 2nd in the G1 Saratoga Derby. After that he finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Derby Inv. Stakes, and 5th in the G2 Hill Price Stakes. He struggled in the G2 Hill Prince Stakes getting forced wide after going off as the heavy favorite.

(4) Serve the King, a 5 year old Colt is the morning line favorite in this race at 3-1. This Colt has raced four times this year coming off a 2nd Place finish in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes. Out of those four races, his only win comes back August in the John’s Call Stakes at Saratoga. He’s used to longer distances on the Turf so he sets up well for this race given his past performances. Another thing to note is that his speed figures have significantly improved in his last two races which is encouraging.

(5) Shamrocket, a 4 year old Colt and son of Tonalist, has had 10 starts this year. He’s coming off a win in his last start in the Point of Entry Stakes at a similar distance. His other starts this year are highlighted by a 3rd place finish in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes and a 4th place finish in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. Those have been the only two graded stakes races he’s entered so we’ll see if he can get his first win here.

(6) Corelli, a 6 year old Colt and son of Point of Entry has had six starts on the year. His best win comes back in August at Woodbine in the G3 Singspiel Stakes. He’s tried his luck in three other G3 Stakes but has failed to finish better than third. Corelli also entered in the G1 Pattison Canadian International Stakes in September but, finished 6th. He’s coming off a 4th place finish in the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran a 104 speed figure. I’m not sure how he’ll do here given his age and the class of horse’s he’s up against.

(7) Channel Cat, a 6 year old Colt and son of English Channel as well, has over a million dollars in career earnings. This 6 year old Colt is a big race horse competing in Graded Stakes races his last 17 starts. He’s gone winless in his last three starts with his last victory coming back on May 8th in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. This Colt has struggled as of late not getting great trips but has still had solid speed figures in those races. He’s not in great form so we’ll see if he can grab a win here.

(8) Sanctuary City, a 4 year old Colt is a horse I really just don’t see competing here given the strength of the field. His only two wins this year come in AoC’s as he hasn’t much success in the G3 Stakes he’s entered. For me this horse is a toss.

(9) No Word, a 4 year old Colt, is another horse that I think won’t have much of an impact on this race. He’s not a front runner so he won’t have an impact on the pace and will struggle to compete down the stretch. Two races ago, he finished 2nd in the G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap which is a bit misleading as it was only a four horse field. His most recent race was the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran 6th behind Corelli.

(10) Price Talk, another 4 year old Colt is the son of Kitten’s Joy has some impressive pedigree. This will be his first Graded Stakes test after winning back to back races. This horse looks to be in great form but will be tested here. Another thing to note is that he’s coming off a two month layoff which could affect him. He’ll also lengthen out a it from his last two races but, will be well rested. This horse is certainly a factor given his form and recent speed figures.

Race Preview:

Front Runner(s): Tide of the Sea, Channel Cat

Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Value Engineering, Serve the King, Sanctuary City, No Word

Closer(s): Soldier Rising, Shamrocket, Corelli, Price Talk

Picks:

WIN: 4 SERVE THE KING

This horse is in great form and is taking a class drop here so it’s hard tp stay away from the favorite. I’m hoping he stays around the 3-1 range before post time but it’s unlikely. Irad Ortiz stays on the irons after having two successful trips prior.

EXACTA: 4 / 2, 3, 10

Value Engineering has been in great form as of late with the only knock against him being his lack of experience. I’m not sure he’ll have enough to win this race but should be competitive. Soldier Rising is another horse that merits strong consideration with the drop in class. While he did struggle his last time out he seems to be stretching out to a more favorable distance here. Price Talk, like Value Engineering, doesn’t have the experience in grades stakes but has had impressive wins in his last two starts.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.