An 0-1 Monday brings my overall MLB record to 148-138-6, +3.67u. It’s been a suboptimal 4 day stretch, but I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to get us back on track! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 3.5(-120) vs Dodgers–6:10 PM CT
Dodgers SP Andrew Heaney has started out hot this year, but context matters. The heavy fly-ball lefty has fared well at Dodger Stadium, but he’s shown the same signs of leakiness on the road, allowing 1.7 HR/9 away from home this year. Considering he allowed 2 HR/9 in 2021, this is a theme I expect to continue. You might not think of Citi Field as a “hitters park”, but it will certainly play like one tonight. A wind of 13-14 mph expects to be blowing out by the time this one starts, giving hitters a significant edge. The Mets offense has been steady against lefties in this role(112 wRC+ since June 1st) and are equipped to take advantage of Heaney’s fly-ball nature in this spot.
The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in the game, but I was priced out of isolating this TT in the first 5 innings. The reality is that, if Heaney were being priced according to his true value on the road and his career numbers(4.55 ERA), this number would be at 4.5. I feel comfortable firing on this at a low number and reasonable price.
*MLB(1u): Pirates/Brewers OVER 9(-105)–7:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Jason Alexander is simply not a major-league caliber arm. The righty brings a 5.26 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into tonight’s start, is striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings, and is allowing an astounding 32% of balls to be hit 95+ mph. The Pirates are… the Pirates, but they have scored 5 runs in each of their past 2 ballgames. This is a AAA caliber arm that I expect them to get after.
Pirates SP Mitch Keller is the exact type of righty that the Brewers have crushed this season. Keller brings a 4.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP into tonight’s start and is in poor current form having allowed 9 ER across his last 11 innings. The Brewers had a well-documented poor start to the month of August, but this is an offense that’s turned a corner; they’ve scored nearly 6.5 runs/game over their last 5 games. You can’t trust Milwaukee against a good arm, but these are the spots they feast in and pad their numbers.
Milwaukee has needed to dig deep into their bullpen each of the past 2 nights. Closer Devon Williams will be unavailable today, which is a huge hit to a very shallow bullpen. Given Alexander doesn’t figure to go deep in this game, I absolutely want my money against these set of Milwaukee middle-relievers that have boggled down their bullpen numbers all year. The Pirates rank 27th in bullpen WHIP and are still without Closer David Bednar, making them a very easy unit to fade.
