*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(+125) @ Giants–8:45 PM CT
These are two of the top teams in the league, so you might be wondering why I’d be willing to lay a run-and-a-half with the road team. Well, the Brewers obviously have a significant advantage on the mound, but it’s their offense that could be the difference tonight. This Brewers lineup excels at hitting on the road; since July 1st, the Brewers are hitting .278(best in baseball) with 41 HR’s away from Miller Park. They’ll get a manageable matchup tonight facing Johnny Cueto(1.30 WHIP), and the hitting conditions in the Bay Area are much more hitter-friendly than the Brewers are accustomed to in the Midwest. Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is easily my favorite pitcher to bet on; to go along with a 2.30 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season, his 1.64 FIP indicates that he’s actually pitched better than his numbers indicate. The Giants handle righties well(especially at home), but I think they’ll be fatigued tonight coming off a 9 game road trip with zero days rest heading into tonight’s game. Burnes is allowing just 0.3 HR/9 this season, and quite frankly, he has the ability to overmatch much of this Giants order. The Brewers back-end of the bullpen is steady and can be trusted to hold a lead. This is a situational play, but the success that Burnes and this Brewers lineup(on the road) has had is too hard to ignore.
