Illinois (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 3.5 wins)
Head Coach Brent Bielema is back in college football taking over for Lovie Smith, who was fired during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. When he took over in December, he recruited 21 super seniors to stay for their additional year due to COVID-19. Belilema and his experience staff have their work cut out this season as they try to revamp an offense that averaged only 20.1 PPG and a defense that allowed 34.9 PPG.
Bielema’s offenses have been built around running the ball effectively behind strong offensive lines and a pro- style quarterback. The Illini will depend on veteran OT’s Vederian Lowe and Alex Palczewski to anker the edges of the O-line with Center Doug Kremer to man the middle between 2 new starting guards. RB Chase Brown was the leading rusher for Illinois in 2020 and expects to duplicate that effort this coming season. The big question mark for the Fighting Illini is their receiving corps who lost their top receiver to the NFL draft and their 2nd leading receiver last year was TE Daniel Barker who only pulled in 19 receptions for 268 yards.
Ryan Walters comes into his first season as Illinois defensive coordinator and will try to revitalize a defense that hasn’t finished better than 10th in the Big Ten in total defense since 2015. Though the starters are experienced, depth remains an issue at most positions, particularly at cornerback and outside linebacker. The strength of this defense is senior linebacker Jake Hansen, who led the team with 68 tackles, had 2.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. A breakout candidate for this side of the ball is senior defensive lineman Roderick Perry, who did not struggle like others did against elite talent.
I don’t see the Illini winning more than 2 or 3 games in 2021. Take UNDER 3.5 wins.
Iowa (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 8.5 wins)
The Hawkeyes started off slow last season losing the first 2 games but followed that up with 6 straight wins. They were the best team in the West but their early loss to Northwestern hurt their chances of playing for a title.
In one of their highest scoring seasons, the Hawkeyes averaged 31.8 PPG which was 40th in the nation. They will have to replace a decent number of starters, however. Iowa will return only 5 starters including starting QB Spencer Petras and 1st Team All-Big Ten RB Tyler Goodson. At tight end, Sam LaPorta is the latest in a long tradition of great tight ends at Iowa. He led the team last season with 27 receptions and will most likely need to do the same this season with inexperienced receivers. The Hawkeyes will be moving or replacing several positions on the offensive line but the one constant will be C Tyler Linderbaum, who looks like a future 1st round draft pick.
On defense, the Hawkeyes held their opponents to just 4.3 YPP, which led the nation. They also allowed only 16 points per game which was 6th best. However, the defensive line only returns one starter, Zach VanValkenburg, and they will have to piece together the rest. The line will be inexperienced but the opposite goes for the back 7 where they return all but one player and will be led by LB Jack Campbell and S Dane Belton.
I have the Hawkeyes winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. Take UNDER 8.5 wins
Minnesota (+3000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7 wins)
2020 was not what anyone expected but especially in Minnesota where PJ Fleck went 3-4 after an impressive 2019 season when they went 11-2. Minnesota had 2 games cancelled for COVID-19 and they also played another with 33 players out. The Gophers lost WR Rashad Bateman and CB Benjamin St-Juste to the NFL in the offseason but returns 18 starters from 2020. They are one of the most experienced team in the Big Ten this coming season.
Offensive Coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has a decent amount of talent to work with this season including an offensive line that has 160 combined starts (best in the nation), and Big Ten Running Back of the Year Mohammed Ibrahim. Veteran QB Tanner Morgan also returns for his 3rd year as Gophers starter. Morgan will have WR Chris Autman- Bell, who looks to be to new go-to receiver. The rest of the receiving corps looks to be a work in process and will need someone to step up opposite of Autman-Bell. Minnesota averaged 27.3 PPG and 391 YPG in 2020, which were both drop offs from their impressive 2019 season.
The Golden Gophers defense was the biggest downfall of the 2020 season. They will be led by freak rush end Boye Mafe who had his best season last year finishing with 27 tackles and 4.5 sacks and DB Coney Durr who led the team in passes defended. The secondary had 5 interceptions combined but not one player had more than 1. The Gophers only need to replace one starter and have some transfers coming in to boost the defense. To help Mafe on the D-line, Nyles Pinckney from Clemson and Val Martin from NC State will give them added depth in the middle of the line.
I see 8 wins a strong possibility with this squad. Take OVER 7 wins.
Nebraska (+4000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6 wins)
Scott Frost enters year 4 as Nebraska’s head coach and will look to improve off a disappointing 3-5 season in 2020. Two of the teams top offensive players, Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred in January but Frost said he was happier about the culture for the 2021 season. He also kept all of the assistant coaches from last year which shows confidence in what they are doing in Lincoln.
Nebraska’s offense has declined each of the past 3 years, which doesn’t make Frost look like the offensive guru he was brought in to be. Adrian Martinez returns to run the offense in his senior year but he needs to clean up the turnovers to keep his job. Martinez lost 5 fumbles and threw 3 interceptions in their 8 games last year which contributed to their, 123th ranked, -11 turnover margin. NU looks to have an exciting group of receivers while the running back position looks to be thin as a true freshman, #35 RB recruit Gabe Ervin, is set to open the season as the starter. Other the receiving corps, the big guys up front should have a solid group constructed by returning starters and a top 100 recruit from 2020.
Opposite of the offense, the defense has actually improved each of the past 3 years. The Huskers defense will welcome 8 starters back from 2020 with CB Cam Taylor-Britt and LB JoJo Domann leading the way. Every key contributor on the D-line is back, all but two contributors at linebackers and the secondary only need to replace one starter. Saying that, the defense will look to improve again and has the ability to become one of the best units in the Big Ten in 2021.
This will be Frost’s 1st season above .500 and the Cornhuskers will win at least 7 games. Take OVER 6 wins
Northwestern (+5000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6.5 wins)
Coming off an impressive 2020 season, Pat Fitzgerald will be coaching the Wildcats in his 17th season at the helm. Northwestern was in the Big Ten Championship last season and held powerhouse Ohio State to their lowest total of the year. However, the Wildcats offense was only able to score 10 points in the matchup. 2021 could be somewhat of a rebuilding year since they are only bringing back 8 starters.
Northwestern will open the season with a new starting QB for the 4th straight year as South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is the favorite to win the job. The highlight of Hilinski’s career was in 2019 when he threw for 2357 yards, 11 TDs and 5 interceptions while helping the Wildcats take down the #5 Georgia Bulldogs. RB Cam Porter led the team in rushing and he is the only skill position leading yard gainer back this season. The receiving corps will be a work in progress as will the offensive line who returns 3 starters but will have to piece together the rest.
In what was a definite strength of the Wildcats, the defense ranked 5th in the nation in points scored with only allowing 15.9 PPG. Like the offense, there will be a lot of new faces on the defense with only 3 starters returning from last season. However, there will be some talent coming back highlighted by sophomore S Brandon Joseph who was tied for most interceptions in the nation. DE Andetomiwa Adebawore and LB Chris Bergin are the other two returning starters but it is also worth mentioning DE Samdup Miller (sat out 2020) and CB AJ Hampton who will play large roles this season as they piece together the D.
I have the rebuilding Wildcats winning 6 games so take UNDER 6.5 wins.
Purdue (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5 win)
After starting the 2020 season 2-0, the Boilermakers had their next game cancelled and then lost their last 4 games of the season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm will be entering his 5th year and will need to show improvement to keep him off the hot seat.
The offense that averaged 27.2 PPG and owned a 16th ranked passing game will most likely play both Jack Plummer and Aiden O’Connell at QB since it worked so well last season. Zander Horvath returns as the bell cow and leading rusher on the Boilers in 2020 but lead a running game which finished last in the Big Ten. This should be the best offensive line in Brohm’s tenure even without LT Grant Hermanns, who was drafted by the Jets, and the best player on the field should be junior wide out David Bell.
For the 3rd year in a row, Purdue will have a different defensive coordinator. Brohm brought in Brad Lamber from Marshall where he was co-coordinator/linebackers coach. First round prospect George Karaftis is back and should be motivated after being limited to only 3 games in 2020. The defensive end should be better than ever operating in a four man front. Other than Karlaftis, the Boilermakers will return 7 starters from what was a respectable defense last season ranking 56th overall in yards allowed. They will build the secondary around CB Cory Trice who looks to be the best NFL prospect in the secondary. Purdue also brought in a couple transfers that will be thrown into the mix. Will it be enough?
5 wins is exactly where I have Brohm’s squad. No play here.
Wisconsin (+600 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9.5 wins)
Wisconsin started the 2020 season with 2 blowout wins and 2 cancellations. After that, it all went downhill for the Badgers, losing the next 3 and barely beating the struggling Golden Gophers in OT. Head coach Paul Cryst will have 17 starters returning and will be looking to bounce back in 2021.
With all of the challenges and setbacks in 2020, Wisconsin had its worst offense since 2004 averaging 25.1 PPG and 345.6 YPG. QB Graham Mertz returns for his 2nd year under center after completing 61% of his passes. The return of sixth year receivers, Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, can only help. Both WR’s 2020 seasons were ruined by injury. Senior tight end Jake Ferguson, a first-team All-Big Ten performer last season, has 99 career catches for 1168 yards and 10 touchdowns in his Badgers career and looks to be the best NFL prospect on the team. Freshman RB Jalen Berger looks to improve upon last season after he was the leading rusher and looks to be the primary tailback in 2021 behind an offensive line that returns 4 out of 5 starters.
In 2020, the Badgers defense led the league but only allowing 299.8 yards per game and their 17.4-point average was 9th best in the country. Eight starters return from that defense highlighted by LB Jack Sanborn and S Scott Nelson. Sanborn led the team in 2020 with 52 tackles and Nelson led the team in interceptions. Look for the Badgers defense to be tough again in 2021.
I have the Badgers winning at least 10 games and winning the West and will be in the Championship vs Indiana. However, I have the Hosiers winning the Big Ten title. Take OVER 9.5 wins.
