The John Deere Classic Preview & Picks

July 7, 2021

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Cam Davis at 125-1 captures the Rocket Mortgage Classic after defeating Joaquinn Niemann and Troy Merritt in a playoff. Niemann was eliminated after the first hole but, it took Davis 5 holes to close out Merritt. We were obliviously rooting for Niemann as we had him outright at 25-1. Regardless of missing the outright winner, we still had a solid tournament finishing at +0.46 units.

The John Deere Classic is a tournament that is constantly overlooked with as it’s the week before The Open. This tournament comes back after it was postponed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The John Deere Classic was originally Quad Cities Open but changed it’s name in 1999. It has been held at TPC Deere Run since 2000 and is a major part of the local community as it raised over $20 million for local charities in 2020 despite the event being cancelled. Most of the top players have already left the states which leaves us with a weaker field. To try an attract some of these bigger name players, the John Deere Classic has sponsored a charter flight which leaves the local area from Silvis on the Sunday night and arrives in Britain the following morning. Some may complain about this weaker field but, this is where you’re able to find some value and try to cash in on a longshot.

Tournament Information:

Dates: July 8, 2021- July 11, 2021
Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
Course: TPC Deere Run
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,268 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Purse: $6,200,000 / Winner $1.16 Million

Course History/ Guide:

D.A. Weibring and Chris Gray of PGA Tour Design Services turned a 386-acre horse and cattle-breeding farm, into a strategically handsome parkland layout on the sylvan bluffs above the Rock River without disturbing much of what glacial ice had left behind. D.A. Weibring was an Illinois native and three-time champion of the Quad Cities Classic. A fun fact about this course location is that roughly 70 miles upstream, a John Deere started his plow company. All of the holes on the course have names but, the signature hole on the course is the 16th Par 3. “Mother Earth” is set along the Red River and plays roughly 160 yards.

TPC Deere Run is historically an easy course, that fails to present much challenge. The winner of this tournament is usually around the -20 mark. Four of the last five winners at the John Deere Classic have picked up their first career victory here. TPC Deere Run has been won on approach shots and putting. Bogeys should try to be avoided at all costs here. The fairways are larger than PGA average which should allow some forgiveness off the tee. Two of the Par Five’s (2 and 17) are reachable in 2 for most players. A key stat for this weeks tournament is birdie or better conversion as it is with most resort style courses. However, this tournament will ultimately come down to who has the hottest putter and can take advantage of these bentgrass greens.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: D.A. Weibring
Comparable Courses:
- TPC Four Seasons
- TPC Craig Ranch
- TPC River Highlands
- TPC Twin Cities

Weather:

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 67 F, 9 mp/h N, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Friday: Thundershowers 67 F,8 mp/h ESE, 82% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Showers 69 F, 10 mp/h E, 82% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Showers 69 F, 13 mp/h NE, 80% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, July 8, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, July 9, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, July 10, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, July 11, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Tournament Trends & Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Birdies or Better Percentage
Par 4s Gained 400-450 Yards
Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie to Bogey Ratio
Strokes Gained: Total
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Par 5

Stokes Gained Skill Averages based off Previous Winners:

2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21)
- SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 60th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2018, Michael Kim (-27)
- SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 47th, SG Tee to Green: 16th, SG Putting: 1st.
2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
- SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2016, Ryan Moore (-22)
- SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.