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2025 The Sentry Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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The 2025 FedExCup season tees off this week in Hawaii with the “Opening Drive” at The Sentry, held at the iconic Plantation Course at Kapalua. Featuring 60 of the TOUR’s top players, The Sentry serves as the first event of the 2025 FedExCup Regular Season and Playoffs schedule. This year’s field includes four FedExCup Champions, 31 PGA TOUR winners (15 of whom earned their first TOUR title in 2024), and 29 players who finished inside the top 50 of the 2024 FedExCup standings. As the first of eight Signature Events on the schedule, The Sentry brings together PGA TOUR winners from the previous calendar year and the top 50 members from the 2024 standings.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler withdrew from The Sentry earlier this week after sustaining a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand during Christmas dinner preparations. According to his manager, Blake Smith, “Scottie suffered the injury from a broken glass, which left small fragments in his hand and required surgery.” Scheffler’s recovery is expected to take three to four weeks.

Viktor Hovland

Viktor Hovland is playing through an unusual holiday mishap of his own, having broken his pinky toe on a bed frame. Despite the injury, Hovland remains in the field and is set to compete in this season-opening event.

Chris Kirk

Defending champion Chris Kirk is making his sixth appearance at The Sentry. He will look to become the first player to successfully defend his title at the event since Geoff Ogilvy accomplished the feat in 2010.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: January 2nd – January 5th, 2025
  • Location: Lahaina, Hawaii, United States
  • Course: Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
  • Course Type: Coastal
  • Par: 73 (3x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,596 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
  • Fairways: Celebration bermudagrass .375”
  • Rough: Celebration bermudagrass 2.5”
  • Bunkers: 93 (145,731 sq. ft / 3.34 acres)
  • Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 11.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$3,600,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 700
  • Field: 60 Players
  • Cut: No Cut
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2024: 68.37 (-4.63), Rank 51 of 51
    • 2023: 68.92 (-4.08), Rank 49 of 49
    • 2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Rank 50 of 50

Social Media:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (1991)
  • Renovations: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (2019)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Augusta National – Masters Tournament – RESULTS
    • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • Congaree Golf Club – The 2022 CJ Cup in South Carolina – RESULTS

  • Comparable Location (Lahaina, Hawaii):
    • Waialae Country Club – Honolulu, Hawaii, United States – Sony Open in Hawaii
  • Designer Link (Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (1991)):
    • Riviera Country Club – Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw Renovation (1992)  – The Genesis Invitational

  • Comparable Yardage (7,596 Yards):
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 7,533 Yards – the Memorial Tournament
    • Quail Hollow Club – 7,521 Yards – Wells Fargo Championship

  • Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermudagrass .110”):
    • Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) – Tif Eagle bermudagrass .090” – RSM Classic
    • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – The Honda Classic
    • Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – Arnold Palmer Invitational
    • Port Royal Golf Course – Tif Eagle bermudagrass .125” – The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
    • Albany – TifEagle bermudagrass .085” – Hero World Challenge

  • Comparable Average Green Size (8,722 sq. ft.):
    • El Cardonal at Diamante – 8,300 sq. ft. – World Wide Technology Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, January 2nd, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:30 PM – 6:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, January 3rd, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:45 PM – 6:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, January 4th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
    • NBC/ Peacock – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, January 5th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
    • NBC/ Peacock – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sentry Tournament of Champions is a prestigious PGA Tour event that brings together winners from the previous calendar year. It was first established in 1953 and initially held at the Desert Inn Country Club in Las Vegas, Nevada, where it remained until 1968. In 1969, the tournament moved to La Costa Resort and Spa in Carlsbad, California, where it was played for nearly three decades. Seeking a more picturesque and unique setting, the tournament relocated in 1999 to its current home, the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Known for its breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean and its challenging yet scenic layout, the Plantation Course has since become synonymous with the event. The tournament traditionally kicks off the PGA Tour calendar year, offering a relaxed yet competitive atmosphere as champions from the previous year compete against each other. In 2018, Sentry Insurance became the title sponsor, further solidifying the event’s stature on the tour.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of Maui, Hawaii, is one of the most iconic golf courses in the world, renowned for its stunning ocean views and challenging design. Opened in 1991, the course was co-designed by legendary architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, who aimed to create a layout that harmonized with Maui’s natural landscape. Set on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains, the course features dramatic elevation changes, expansive fairways, and wide greens, making it both a strategic challenge and a breathtaking experience for players. The Plantation Course has been the home of the Sentry Tournament of Champions since 1999, hosting PGA Tour winners in a celebrated start to the calendar year. Its distinctive design encourages risk-reward shot-making, with trade winds adding an unpredictable element. Among its most famous holes is the par-5 18th, where players can experience one of the longest drives on the tour thanks to its downhill layout. Over the years, the course has undergone enhancements to maintain its status as one of golf’s premier destinations, most notably in 2019, when Coore and Crenshaw led a major renovation to update its playability and agronomy while preserving its unique character.

Previous Tournament Venues:

DurationCourseLocation
1953-1966Desert Inn Country ClubLas Vegas, Nevada, United States
1967-1968Stardust Country ClubLas Vegas, Nevada, United States
1969–1998La Costa Resort and SpaCarlsbad, California, United States
1999 – PresentKapalua Resort (Plantation) Lahaina, Hawaii, United States

Previous Tournament Names:

DurationTournament Name
1953-1974Tournament of Champions
1975-1990MONY Tournament of Champions
1991-1993Infiniti Tournament of Champions
1994-2006Mercedes Championships
2007-2009Mercedes-Benz Championship
2010SBS Championship
2011-2016Hyundai Tournament of Champions
2017SBS Tournament of Champions
2018-2023Sentry Tournament of Champions
2024- CurrentThe Sentry

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (The Sentry):
    • 258, Cameron Smith (2022)
  • Largest Margin of Victory (The Sentry):
    • 13 Strokes – Gene Littler (1955)
  • Largest Margin of Victory (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
    • 9 Strokes – David Duval (1999)
  • Most Wins at Event:
    • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977)

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
    • 258, Cameron Smith (2022)
  • 18-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
    • 61, Jon Rahm (third round, 2022), Justin Thomas (third round, 2022), Matt Jones (final round, 2022), Justin Rose (final round, 2024)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour schedule and is a bomber’s paradise, stretching roughly 7,600 yards. It features four par 5s, each playing over 525 yards, including the 18th hole, which measures an astounding 677 yards. Despite the course’s length, elevation changes significantly impact how it plays, allowing some players to reach the 18th in two shots.

The course’s primary defense is its exposure to coastal winds and dramatic elevation changes, which create challenging blind approach shots. In fact, the Plantation Course has the most substantial elevation changes of any course on tour.

The three Par 3’s range from 161 to 219 yards. Last year, all of the par 3’s had a scoring average under par.

No. 2, 219 yards, Par 3: The second hole is a crossing downwind par three to a large green angled from left to right. The tilt of the green plus the direction and force of the wind favor shots that fade and are played with finesse. Running approaches are encouraged and rewarded here.

No. 8, 199 yards, Par 3: The eighth is a middle iron par three playing across a native canyon to a receptive green. The green that slopes back- to-front and right-to-left was built to hold and nurse the ball to the left, given the strong trade winds from the right.

No. 11, 161 yards, Par 3: The last par three of the course demands and rewards thought and finesse. The desired tee shot is a short iron that either “cuts” and “holds” into the wind blowing from the player’s right shoulder or one that allows for drift and uses the approach and slope of the green for assistance. A shot flown directly to the back left pin will not likely be tried more than once as holding the green is very tough due to the difficulty in holding the sloping green.

The Plantation Course has 11 par 4s, most of which measure between 400 and 450 yards. Last year, the toughest par 4—and the only hole to play over par—was the first, with a scoring average of +0.059.

No. 1, 520 yards, Par 4: The opening hole at The Plantation Course introduces the character, scale and drama of the course about to be played. It is a downhill, downwind par four of immense proportion. An adequate tee shot assisted by the wind and slope should leave a middle-to-long iron approach to an expansive and welcoming green that slopes from left to right. The difficulty of this hole is more psychological than physical.

No. 6, 424 yards, Par 4: Another hole representative of earlier architectural forms, the sixth is a spectacular and mysterious par four affording alternate routes to the green. Playing through strong crossing winds from the right, the ideal tee shot is one played more dangerously, powerfully and accurately across the cliffs to the right side of the fairway. From there, the player will be afforded an adequate view of the green. Those choosing the more conservative left-side route will have to play their approaches to a green unseen over the hill. Check the hole location as there is a spine that runs down the middle of the green, and if you are on the wrong side a 2 putt will be a premium.

No. 13, 383 yards, Par 4: One of the most difficult par fours on the course, the thirteenth is a long hole made longer and more difficult by the prevailing trade winds. Low, boring tee shots and long iron or fairway wood approaches are necessary to reach this deep and deceptive green in regulation. Putts numbering three or more will also be commonplace given the green’s size and slope and the wind’s effects.

The four par 5s—No. 5, No. 9, No. 15, and No. 18—are critical scoring opportunities, with all averaging under par in 2024.

No. 5, 526 yards, Par 5: The fifth hole of The Plantation Course is a natural and daring par five that slopes from left to right all the way. A bunker was added in the middle of the fairway during the 2019 refinement. An example of the classical “cape” concept of golf architecture, the fairway culminates at a green perched on a peninsula high above the canyon that borders the entire right side of the hole. The nature of the hole entices the player to “have a go” after a fine drive. Courage, but not foolhardiness, is rewarded here.

No. 18, 677 yards, Par 5: One of the most famous holes in all of golf, 18 is the hole around which the rest of the course was created. The eighteenth is an extremely long downhill, downwind par five. Despite its length, the hole is made reachable in two powerful blows by the assisting winds and slope. The fairway and green are large and receptive, yet difficult to judge, owing to the vast panorama and scale of the background. The eighteenth is probably the most scenic, spectacular and representative of all the holes at The Plantation Course. Its scale and drama are uncommon and its challenge is within reason, while its surrounding beauty is unparalleled.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

Kapalua Resort (Plantation) Course Guide

Key Statistics:

As The Sentry takes place at Kapalua Resort, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageKapalua Resort (Plantation)
Driving Distance (Yards)283.67293.10
Driving Accuracy62%72%
GIR Percentage66%79%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)29.0835.42
Scrambling Percentage58%58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.70

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset for the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort.

  • Driving Distance
    • The course’s wide fairways and downhill holes favor players who can hit long, high drives. The par-5 18th, for example, often produces some of the longest drives on the PGA Tour.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Byeong Hun An
      • Chris Gotterup
      • Wyndham Clark
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Taylor Pendrith
      • Max Greyserman
      • Stephan Jaeger
      • Ludvig Aberg
      • Jake Knapp
      • Justin Thomas

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • A strong iron game is crucial for success on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Tony Finau
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Nick Dunlap
      • Eric Cole
      • Aaron Rai
      • Taylor Pendrith
      • Harry Hall
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Sepp Straka

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
    • The large greens and sloping terrain mean missed approaches often leave challenging recovery shots. Players with strong short-game skills can save crucial pars.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Harry Hall
      • Tony Finau
      • Justin Thomas
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Adam Scott
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Cameron Young
      • Cam Davis
      • J.T. Poston

  • Strokes Gained: Total (Moderate Conditions)
    • The Plantation Course is exposed to trade winds, which can significantly impact ball flight. Players who can adjust to changing wind conditions and control their trajectory tend to perform well.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Adam Scott
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Sahith Theegala
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Will Zalatoris
      • Harry Hall
      • Sam Burns
      • Patrick Cantlay
      • Corey Conners

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
    • The Greens on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort are TifEagle bermudagrass. The greens at Kapalua are expansive and feature significant contours. Success often depends on mastering long lag putts and converting mid-range opportunities on the grainy Bermuda grass.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Thomas Detry
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Max Greyserman
      • Jason Day
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Davis Riley
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Taylor Pendrith
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Russell Henley

  • Par 4 Scoring
    • Par 4 scoring is crucial at Kapalua because the Plantation Course only features three par 3s and four par 5s, leaving a majority of the holes—11 in total—as par 4s. While the par 5s offer excellent scoring opportunities, the par 4s are where the tournament is often won or lost. Many of these par 4s are unique, featuring dramatic elevation changes, wide fairways, and challenging approach shots into large, undulating greens. Players who can consistently take advantage of the shorter par 4s while managing the longer, more difficult ones can separate themselves from the field.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Russell Henley
      • Adam Scott
      • Max Greyserman
      • Robert MacIntyre
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Patrick Cantlay
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Sungjae Im
      • Hideki Matsuyama

  • Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3)
    • Three of the four par 5s on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort range between 500 and 550 yards, making them reachable in two shots for longer hitters. Capitalizing on these scoring opportunities is essential for staying competitive.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Davis Thompson
      • Max Greyserman
      • Byeong Hun An
      • Adam Hadwin
      • Justin Thomas
      • Patton Kizzire
      • Brice Garnett
      • Matt Fitzpatrick
      • Aaron Rai
      • Denny McCarthy

  • Birdies or Better Gained
    • Low scores are a staple of the tournament, with winning scores typically around -25 or better. Players must capitalize on birdie opportunities, especially on the par 4s and par 5s.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Max Greyserman
      • Sam Burns
      • Harry Hall
      • Adam Scott
      • Taylor Pendrith
      • Nico Echavarria
      • Cam Davis
      • Austin Eckroat
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Viktor Hovland

  • Scrambling Gained
    • The course features wide fairways but places a premium on precision around the greens. The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is known for its undulating putting surfaces, deep bunkers, and coastal winds, all of which increase the difficulty of getting up and down when players miss greens.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Wyndham Clark
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Harry Hall
      • Max Greyserman
      • Eric Cole
      • Alex Noren
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Justin Thomas
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Christiaan Bezuidenhout

  • Proximity Gained: 75-100 & 200+ Yards
    • The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 75-100 yard and 200-225 yard ranges compared to the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Russell Henley
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Cam Davis
    • Davis Riley
    • Tom Hoge
    • Nico Echavarria
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Chris Gotterup
    • Wyndham Clark

  • Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Max Greyserman
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Eric Cole
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Justin Thomas
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    • Harry Hall
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Nico Exhavarria
    • Sam Burns

  • Comparable Courses and Event History
    • According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort has shown to be beneficial for players.
  • Leaders in this category (Scoring Average Per Round, Multiple Events Played):
    • Sungjae Im
    • Matthew Fitzpatrick
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Tom Hoge
    • Sepp Straka
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Cameron Young
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Brian Harman
    • Patrick Cantlay

The Field:

  • Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
    • Current Tournament Winners
    • Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
  • Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
    • Chris Kirk (2024), Justin Thomas (2020, 2017), Xander Schauffele (2019)
  • Debutants in the Field (Event):
    • Aaron Rai, Alexander Noren, Austin Eckroat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Rafael Campos, Robert MacIntyre, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry
  • Sponsors Exemptions:
    • None

  • Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
    • Scottie Scheffler (W/D – Hand)
Full Field

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

GolferOdds
Xander Schauffele+550
Justin Thomas+900
Collin Morikawa+1000
Ludvig Aberg+1600
Sungjae Im+1800
Patrick Cantlay+1800
Hideki Matsuyama+1800
Sam Burns+2500
Sahith Theegala+2500
Viktor Hovland+2500
Corey Conners+2800
Akshay Bhatia+3000
Adam Scott+3000
Tony Finau+3000
Russell Henley+3500
Robert MacIntyre+3500
Byeong Hun An+3500
Wyndham Clark+3500
Max Greyserman+4000
J.T. Poston+4000
Davis Thompson+4000
Si Woo Kim+4500
Maverick McNealy+4500
Keegan Bradley+4500
Jason Day+4500
Cameron Young+4500
Taylor Pendrith+5000
Brian Harman+5000
Alex Noren+5000
Matt Fitzpatrick+5500
Max Homa+6000
Chris Kirk+6000
Will Zalatoris+6000
Billy Horschel+6500
Nick Dunlap+7000
Eric Cole+7000
Denny McCarthy+7000
Austin Eckroat+7000
Harry Hall+7500
Sepp Straka+8000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+8000
Aaron Rai+8000
Stephan Jaeger+9000
Thomas Detry+9000
Nico Echavarria+10000
Matt McCarty+10000
Cameron Davis+11000
Kevin Yu+12000
Jhonattan Vegas+12000
Adam Hadwin+12000
Tom Hoge+12000
Patton Kizzire+15000
Nick Taylor+15000
Matthieu Pavon+17000
Jake Knapp+17000
Chris Gotterup+25000
Rafael Campos+50000
Peter Malnati+50000
Davis Riley+50000
Brice Garnett+70000
Odds via DraftKings
Current Odds

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

  • Will There Be a Playoff at The Sentry? (Yes +350 / No -500)

The last playoff at The Sentry occurred in 2021 when Harris English defeated Joaquin Niemann. Since the tournament’s move to the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in 1999, there have been a total of eight playoffs.

DraftKings – Playoff Prop

Hole-in-One:

  • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at The Sentry? (Yes +230 / No -320)

There have been only four holes-in-one in the history of The Sentry, with the most recent achieved by Patton Kizzire in 2019.

DraftKings – Hole-in-One Prop

Wire to Wire Winner:

  • Will There Be A Wire to Wire Winner at The Sentry? (Yes +800)

Since The Sentry moved to its current venue, there have been only two wire-to-wire winners.

DraftKings – Wire to Wire Winner Prop

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

The SentryThe SentrySentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at Kapalua
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20242023202220212020
Collin Morikawa567.8052577
Sungjae Im467.4451385–
Xander Schauffele768.5610WD1252
Patrick Cantlay668.6712164134
Justin Thomas868.84–2553WON
Matthew Fitzpatrick267.63147–––

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

The SentryThe SentrySentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at KapaluaPlantation Course at Kapalua
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20242023202220212020
Keegan Bradley570.684534–––
Russell Henley570.305230–––
Nick Taylor370.5052––29–

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

  • 2024: Chris Kirk (-29)
    • Price: 150-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Chris Kirk 26th6th14th1st11th
  • 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
    • Price: 7-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Jon Rahm2nd3rd32nd3rd1st
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
    • Price: 28-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Cameron Smith1st3rd7th7th1st
  • 2021: Harris English (-25)
    • Price: 33-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Harris English8th13th12th25th1st
  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
    • Price: 11-2
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Justin Thomas6th2nd2nd8th13th

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2024: Chris Kirk
    • T28 – RSM Classic (PGA)
    • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
    • T29 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • T16 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
    • MC – Wyndham Championship
  • 2023: Jon Rahm
    • T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
    • WON – DP World Tour Championship (EUR)
    • WON – acciona Open de Espana (DPWT)
    • T2 – BMW PGA Championship (DPWT)

  • 2022: Cameron Smith
    • T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
    • T15 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
    • T9 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • T14 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
    • T34 – BMW Championship (PGA)

  • 2021: Harris English
    • T5 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
    • T6 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
    • T28 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
    • 10 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)

  • 2020: Justin Thomas
    • T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • T17 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
    • WON – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • T4 – Safeway Open (PGA)
    • T3 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Chris Kirk

Hyundai Tournament of ChampionsHyundai Tournament of ChampionsHyundai Tournament of ChampionsHyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort
2016201520142012
Chris KirkT24T14T16T7

2023: Jon Rahm

Sentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
20222021202020192018
Jon Rahm2T710T82

2022: Cameron Smith

Sentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
20212018
Cameron SmithT24T17

2021: Harris English

Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2014
Harris EnglishT11

2020: Justin Thomas

Sentry Tournament of ChampionsSentry Tournament of ChampionsSBS Tournament of ChampionsHyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort		Plantation Course
at Kapalua Resort
2019201820172016
Justin Thomas3T22WONT21

Picks:

Outrights

Sungjae Im (+1800) – FanDuel/ DraftKings

Sahith Theegala (+2800) – FanDuel

Akshay Bhatia (+3500) – FanDuel

Brian Harman (+5500) – FanDuel

Nico Echavarria (+12000) – FanDuel

Top 20 (Inc. Ties)

Max Greyserman (+105) – DraftKings

Eric Cole (+150) – DraftKings

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

NFL Week 18 Betting Spots – Teams That Should Be Motivated & Teams That Should Rest

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Playoff Motivation:

  • Broncos will want to beat the Chiefs to make the playoffs.
  • Dolphins will want to beat the Jets hoping to get in if the Broncos lose.
  • The Bengals will want to beat the Steelers in hopes that the Broncos and the Dolphins lose.
  • Bucs will want to beat the Saints to get in the playoffs.
  • Falcons will want to beat Panthers i hopes that the Bucs lose to get in the playoffs.
  • The Ravens will want to secure the division with a win hosting Cleveland.
  • Steelers may be motived to at least get the 5 seed if not the Division if the Ravens lose.
  • Washington will want to avoid @ the Eagles in round 1 with a win at the Cowboys.
  • Vikings and Lions are playing for the number 1 seed, the division, and a bye in the playoffs!
  • If the Steelers lose, you will get full effort from the Chargers to help their seeding.   Maybe bet Chargers

Spoiler teams: 

  • Jets hosting the Dolphins
  • Saints at the Buccaneers
  • Panthers at the Falcons
  • Steelers hosting the Bengals.  The Steelers also will want the 5 seed, if not the Division.
  • Browns could technically hurt Ravens division and seed.
  • Cowboys could hurt the Commanders seed.

Teams that can’t improve their seed much or at all and should not be motivated:

  • Chiefs at the Broncos.
  • Bills at the Patriots (will Patriots want to lose the number 1 pick?)
  • Packers hosting the Bears.   The Packers could technically move to the 6 from 7, but Washington has to lose.
  • Texans are locked into the 4 seed at the Titans.  They will put starters out for a while.
  • The Eagles are locked into the 2 seed hosting the Giants.
  • Rams are locked into the three or 4 spot and it might be better to play the Commanders over the Packers, so they should not care.
  • If the Steelers win on Saturday, you might not get a big effort from the Chargers at the Raiders.  Prepare to bet Raiders.

College Football Playoffs & Bowls December 31st – January 2nd – Sports Betting – College Football

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.

PLAYOFFS (part 2)

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Penn State vs. Boise State +11 O/U 54
Location:  State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Penn State:

  • OL Anthony Donkoh may miss with injury
  • DT Alonzo Ford may miss with injury

Boise State:

  • None

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Boise State: Spencer Danielson, 0-1
  • Penn State: James Franklin, 8-5 

Net YPP:  Penn State +.92

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Penn State not only shows better than Boise State in all of the advanced metrics, they also had a harder strength of schedule ranking 44th to Boise’s 85th.   Boise State’s defense is pretty suspect when playing better teams, although they have improved throughout the season.  

Verdict:  James Franklin is great when he is a favorite of more than 7.  Strong lean to Penn State at this number, but I won’t get involved as my power ratings are right on.

Play:  Lean Penn State -11

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Texas vs. Arizona State +13 O/U 52
Location:  Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Time:  1 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  Texas will get two points in SEC/ACC Country

Key Guys Missing:

Arizona State:

  • Top WR Jordyn Tyson with a collar bone fracture

Texas:

  • WR Isaiah Bond is questionable with an ankle sprain.
  • OL Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle sprain.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 3-4
  • Arizona State:  Kenny Dillingham, 0-0

Net YPP:  Texas +1

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Arizona State’s weakness is definitely on defense where they rank 69th in success rate and 56 in opponent pass EPA.   Texas really doesn’t have a weakness minus their inconsistency in many games.   Texas’s offensive line yards only ranks 77th which doesn’t feel like championship caliber.  

Verdict:  Believe it or not, the strength of schedule doesn’t rank much differently on Sagarin with Texas at 20th and ASU at 39th.  The big injury to number 1 wide receiver Jordyn Tyson of the Sun Devils could play a factor here.   However, I also said that in their Iowa State game where ASU blew them out.  I think that ASU could score first here and I think a prop could make sense as Dillingham is such a great coach, especially in the first half.   Texas in theory should be able to stop Cam Skattebo on the ground, but they do have a weakness only ranking 52nd in defensive success rate.   My number on this game is Texas -12.25, but I will wait and play either the side on ASU or the total.   With Quinn Ewers inconsistency, I think the Devils could shock the Long horns here.

Play:  1st half over 26.5 looks good for a small play as I think both teams score.   I will also wait and play ASU +14 or better or ASU 1st half +7 or better.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential

Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon +2.5 O/U 55.5
Location:  Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Time:  5 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Ohio State:  

  • C Seth McLaughlin is out
  • OT Josh Simmons is out.

Oregon:

  • OL Matthew Bedford

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Oregon: Dan Lanning, 1-1
  • Ohio State: Ryan Day, 3-4

Net YPP:  Ohio State +1.08

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Ohio State should be able to run the ball against Oregon ranking 8th in rush EPA to Oregon ranking 88th, but we also have to keep in mind that most of these stats were accumulated before center Seth McLaughlin was injured.   Oregon plays a bend don’t break defense that tightens up in the red zone, so I won’t punish them for that.   Everything else on these teams are pretty equal.

Verdict:  The first game was really a coin flip game in Oregon.   I think this Rose Bowl feels the same way.  I have these teams equally power rated.   Maybe Ohio State gets the edge at running the football, but Oregon ain’t no slouch on defense ranking 25th in opponent EPA and success rate.   I would take a 3 on either side if one pops.   Where Oregon I think has the edge is that Danny Lanning has proven to be the more trustworthy coach.   I also think the quarterback edge goes to Dillon Gabriel.   I have no play right now, but might do something personal on Oregon.

Play:  Lean Oregon and lean the live over.   I also might look at a 1st half under as both teams will be quite careful with the ball.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Notre Dame vs. Georgia -2 O/U 44
Location:  Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time:  8:45 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  Slight for Georgia at -.5 vs Notre Dame

Key Guys Missing:

Georgia:

  • QB Carson Beck
  • DL Christian Miller is questionable
  • DL Joseph Jonay-Ajonye is out since Oct 31st

Notre Dame:

  • Team Captain DT Rylie Mills out for the season.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Georgia: Kirby Smart, 9-3
  • Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 2-0

Net YPP:  Notre Dame +1.12

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  There is nothing more key than Georgia losing QB Carson Beck to injury.  Even in saying that, I do not know how Georgia is favored here as Notre Dame beats them in all the main categories.  They rank 8th in offensive EPA, to Georgia ranking 28th.   The Irish rank 2nd in defensive EPA to Georgia ranking 35th.  

Verdict:  The injury to captain Rylie Mills is rough for the Irish, but it doesn’t compare to Georgia losing Carson Beck.   The Irish also have a lot of depth on their team.  Everyone in the SEC feels confident about backup Gunner Stockton, but let’s be real here.   The stage get’s much bigger come game-time, and I believe that he will make more mistakes than he even thinks he will at this time.   Coach Marcus Freemen and Defensive coordinator Al Golden will attack Georgia’s quarterback with many different blitz packages and looks.   Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been very poised over the past few months.  He isn’t making bad mistakes and that will be huge here.  I think the Irish win this game and It could be a blowout.  

Notre Dame +2 – 3 stars

Thursday, Jan. 2

 

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl:  Duke vs. Ole Miss -17 O/U 51.5
Location:  EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Network:   ESPN

Duke’s Motivation:  Medium – They get to play an SEC team, but they lost their quarterbacks to transfer.

Ole Miss’s Motivation:  Medium – Not a rewarding bowl for a team that should have made the playoffs, but Lane Kiffen might want to make a statement here for being snubbed in the playoffs.

Home:   None

Key Guys Missing:

Ole Miss Transfer Portal

  • Starting CB Jadon Canady
  • Starting RT Micah Pettus (committed to FSU)
  • S Louis Moore (297 snaps)
  • Third-string QB Walker Howard (committed to Louisiana)
  • RT Preston Cushman *(64 snaps)

Ole Miss Opt-Outs

  • LB Chris Paul Jr.

Ole Miss Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Juice Wells
  • WR Tre Harris (also dealing with injury)
  • DE Princely Umanmielen (plans to play)
  • DE Jared Ivey (plans to play)
  • DT Walter Nolen (plans to play)

CB Trey Amos confirmed he’ll play, as did QB Jaxson Dart.

Ole Miss Injuries

S Yam Banks and S Louis Moore didn’t play in the finale. RB Henry Parrish and WR Tre Harris finished the year injured.

Duke Transfer Portal

  • Starting RB Star Thomas
  • Backup QB Grayson Loftis

Duke Opt-Outs

  • Starting QB Maalik Murphy (committed to Auburn)
    • Henry Belin IV will start.

Duke Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Jordan Moore
  • CB Chandler Rivers

Duke head coach Manny Diaz said he doesn’t expect any opt-outs.

Duke Injuries

Starting CB Kimari Robinson and RB Peyton Jones didn’t play in the finale.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Duke: Manny Diaz, 0-2
  • Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin, 3-4

Net YPP:  Ole Miss +2.21

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  There is nothing more Key than Duke playing without a known quarterback.   Ole Miss is the best team that didn’t make the playoffs statwise ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 8th in defensive EPA.   Maybe this spread should be 30. 

Verdict:  I have no clue how good Duke backup Henry Berlin IV is, but I will say that if he is any good, then maybe he can keep Duke in this game.   Ole Miss is also an inconsistent team away from home.  In saying that, I might play Ole Miss as I think that this line gets to 20.

Play:  Lean Ole Miss -17

References:

https://www.si.com/betting/2024-bowl-season-every-college-football-head-coach-s-against-the-spread-record-in-bowl-games

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker

NFL Week 17 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The Cardinals out-gained the Rams 396 to 257 yet lost 13-9.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone got the Birds.

The Titans outgained the Jaguars 337 to 295 yet lost 20-13.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone got the Titans.

The Colts out-gained the Giants 446 to 389 yet lost 45-33.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible defense smoked the ponies right out of the playoffs.

The 49ers out-gained the Lions 475 to 439 yet lost 40-34.  A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Podcast 664-109-24 – NFL Week 17 Recap and Betting Spots – College Football Playoffs and Bowls – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a fast but great show for you today!  Kiev @OBKiev is on vacation and goes solo to break down some HUGE bowl games and talk about some NFL motivational spots!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good the bad in the ugly.  Next, he gets into some NFL box scores and motivational spots for week 18!  Then, we get into college football playoffs and bowls from December 31th to January 2nd with some Free Plays and some leans.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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NHL 1st Period Stats – Tuesday December 31

By
Kevin Rogers
-

The final slate of games for 2024 is an intriguing one, highlighted by the Outdoor Classic at Wrigley Field in Chicago between the Blackhawks and Blues. Here are the top numbers to look for from a first period betting standpoint on Tuesday in the NHL.

Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals – 12:30 p.m. ET

The Bruins are riding a 5-0-2 stretch in the first period in the last seven games, while not allowing a goal in the opening 20 minutes six times.

The Capitals fell behind at Detroit, 4-1 after the first period in a 4-2 defeat on Sunday. Washington has not trailed after the first period in consecutive games all season.

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs – 1:00 p.m. ET

Since November 27, the Islanders have compiled an ugly 2-10-3 mark in the first period. One of those victories came at Toronto on December 21 as New York jumped out for three goals in the first period of a 6-3 triumph.

The Leafs are on a 6-1 Over run in the first period in the past seven games, while allowing a first period goal in 11 consecutive contests.

Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights – 3:00 p.m. ET

The Habs head west winners of five of their last six games, including an impressive road sweep of the Panthers and Lightning. Montreal finally led after the first period on the road for the first time this season at Tampa Bay following an 0-9-7 start.

The Golden Knights put their six-game winning streak on the line in spite of leading after the first period twice in the past eight contests.

St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks – 5:00 p.m. ET

For the first time this season, we’ll see an outdoor game in the NHL as the Blues and Blackhawks head to the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field in Chicago.

There were four outdoor games last season in the NHL as the first period Over cashed in three of the four matchups. The Blackhawks are currently on a 4-0 Over run in the first but also own an 0-3-3 mark in the opening period in the last six games.

Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks – 8:00 p.m. ET

The Flyers have failed to lead following the first period in eight consecutive games, including each of the first three contests of their current road trip.

San Jose has allowed a first period goal in 11 straight contests, while leading only once through 20 minutes in this span.

Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild – 8:00 p.m. ET

In spite of Monday’s shutout loss at Winnipeg, the Predators were scoreless with the Jets after the first period, marking the 21st time in 23 games that Nashville led or was tied through 20 minutes of action.

The Wild haven’t led through the first period in consecutive games since early November after taking a 1-0 advantage on Sunday over Ottawa in an eventual 3-1 defeat. Minnesota has led after the first period just twice in the last 15 contests, while leading twice in the past 16 games at XCel Energy Center since October through 20 minutes.

Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets – 8:00 p.m. ET

These Metro division rivals cashed the first period Over in each of their first two meetings this season. Carolina is currently in an 0-4-1 first period funk the past five games, while getting shut out four times.

The Blue Jackets have trailed after the first period only four times in the last 18 games, while eclipsing the first period Over in 10 of the past 12 home contests.

New Jersey Devils at Anaheim Ducks – 8:00 p.m. ET

The Devils play a pair of games the next two days in southern California as they will face the Kings in the lone New Year’s Day contest. Prior to their trip to Los Angeles, New Jersey heads to Anaheim on Tuesday looking for their ninth first period Under in the last 10 games.

The Ducks haven’t led after the first period in 12 consecutive games, while failing to score a first period goal in six of the past home contests.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings – 8:00 p.m. ET

The Penguins haven’t trailed after the first period in the past four games, but also haven’t led after the first period in the last seven road contests.

The Red Wings are riding a 5-1 Over run the last six games in the opening period, while allowing a first period goal in each of these matchups.

Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars – 8:00 p.m. ET

Since dropping 13 consecutive games, the Sabres have come back to life with three straight victories. Also, Buffalo has dominated in the opening period recently by outscoring their opponents, 8-1.

Buffalo beat Dallas at home earlier this season, 4-2, while holding the Stars without a goal in the opening frame. The Stars have struggled in the first period of late by leading after 20 minutes once in the previous 10 contests.

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche – 8:00 p.m. ET

Winnipeg travels to Colorado with no rest after shutting out Nashville last night. The Jets have not scored a first period goal in three games this season on the second end of a back-to-back.

The Avalanche are on a 6-1 Under run in the first period the last seven games, while looking to improve on a dreadful 2-11-4 mark in the opening frame at home this season.

Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames – 9:00 p.m. ET

The Canucks have dropped four of their past five games, with all three losses coming in overtime. Vancouver owns a 3-0-3 mark in the first period in the last six games, while finishing Under the total in seven of the past eight road contests in the first.

Calgary hasn’t allowed a first period goal in five of the last six games, while not trailing after the first period in five straight home contests.

Utah Hockey Club at Edmonton Oilers – 9:00 p.m. ET

For only the third time in 20 road games last night, Utah trailed after the first period at Seattle. The Hockey Club ventures to Edmonton tonight as Utah has allowed one first period goal in four games this season when playing with no rest.

The Oilers have played some wild first periods of late by going Over the total five times in the last six games, while allowing two goals four times in this span.

College Football Bowls December 30th – December 31st – Sports Betting – College Football

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl:  Iowa vs. Missouri -3 O/U 40
Location:  Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Time:  2:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Iowa’s Motivation:   High – Kirk Ferentz is 12-7-1 ATS in bowl games.

Missouri’s Motivation:  High – Eliah Drinkwitz is 3-0 in bowl games.

Home:  None, Missouri is closer but Iowa fans travel well.

Key Guys Missing:

Missouri Transfer Portal

  • WR Mekhi Miller (337 snaps)

Missouri Opt-Outs

  • WR Luther Burden
  • RT Armand Membou
  • LB Chuck Hicks (270 snaps)

Missouri Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Theo Wease (should play)

Missouri Injuries

  • C Connor Tollison is out for the year after missing the past three games.
  • WR Mookie Cooper is also out.
  • TE Brett Norfleet is having surgery and will miss the bowl game.

Iowa Transfer Portal

  • QB Cade McNamara
  • QB Marco Lainez

Iowa Opt-Outs

  • Starting CB Jermari Harris
  • Starting RB Kaleb Johnson

Ferentz didn’t expect any other opt-outs.

Iowa injuries:

  • Starting RT Gennings Dunker missed the final two games.
  • DE Brian Allen missed the finale.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz says Brendan Sullivan is healthy now and will start in the bowl. Wide receiver Reece Vander Zee should also return from inury.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Missouri: Eliah Drinkwitz, 3-0
  • Iowa: Kirk Ferentz, 12-7-1

Net YPP:  Iowa +.65

Basic stats:

Key Stats:  Both teams have a pretty equal strength of schedule.  Both teams had some quarterback woes.   I honestly do not see where Missouri will have many advantages.  Iowa is the better running team and probably the better passing team now that Sullivan is back.  I think that the wrong team is favored.   

Verdict:  Iowa has Brendan Sullivan coming back who is better than Cade McNamara who is transferring.  He got injured during the UCLA game, but played quite well in the previous two games.   Take Iowa and the over being that Brady Cook should be playing for Missouri.  Iowa is 9-3 to the over this year.

Play – Iowa +3 – 2.5 stars
Iowa/Missouri over 40 – 1 star

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl:  Alabama vs. Michigan  +13.5 O/U 43.5
Location:  Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ESPN

Alabama’s Motivation:  High – Some folks might not remember that this is a huge revenge spot from last year’s playoffs.

Michigan’s Motivation:  Medium – Michigan beat Ohio State, what do they care about beating Alabama again?   Maybe they show up.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Michigan TE coach Steve Casula will serve as interim OC in place of the let go Kirk Campbell.

Alabama Transfer Portal

  • Starting CB DeVonta Smith
  • RB Justice Haynes (305 snaps)
  • WR Kendrick Law (252 snaps)
  • WR Kobe Prentice (129 snaps)
  • WR Emmanuel Henderson (146 snaps)
  • WR Caleb Odom (145 snaps)

While the top two are available in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, Alabama is very thin at wide receiver due to injuries and transfers.

Alabama Injuries:

  • S Malachi Moore (out with injury)
  • LB Deontae Lawson (out with injury)
  • S Keon Sabb (out with injury)

Head coach Kalen DeBoer said he would let players like Milroe and Booker make their announcements on their own but feels good about the situation.

Update: It looks as if DeBoer doesn’t expect any opt-outs, but that could change.

Michigan Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR Tyler Morris
  • C Dominick Giudice (317 snaps)
  • OT Andrew Gentry (115 snaps)
  • Backup QB Alex Orji

Michigan Opt-Outs

  • DT Mason Graham
  • DE Josiah Stewart
  • TE Colston Loveland
  • RB Donovan Edwards
  • CB Will Johnson

Michigan Potential Opt-Outs

  • RB Kalel Mullings
  • DT Kenneth Grant
  • OLB Derrick Moore
  • LB Jaishawn Barham (leaning toward returning in 2025)
  • Star CB Will Johnson has been out with an injury and won’t play in the bowl.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Alabama: Kalen DeBoer, 2-1
  • Michigan:  Sherrone Moore, 0-0

Net YPP:  Alabama +1.71

Basic Stats:  

Key Stats:  Alabama in theory should have a large advantage passing the ball ranking 11th in passing play success rate to Michigan’s defense that allows lots of yards through the air ranking 80th in defensive pass EPA.   I will say that Michigan has gotten better throughout the season, but their Ohio State victory may have been enough for them.   

Verdict:   I am quite surprised not to see more transfers out of Alabama.   This is a revenge spot for them and I think that they just might dominate this game being that their best two receivers are still hanging in there.

Play:  Alabama -13.5

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl:  Louisville vs. Washington +2.5 O/U 49
Location:  Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Network:  CBS

Louisville’s Motivation:  Medium – Bad location so business trip.

Washington’s Motivation:  Medium – Bad location.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Washington head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anybody to sit out. Meanwhile, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm said he wasn’t sure.

Louisville Transfer Portal

  • S/LB Benjamin Perry (307 snaps)
  • DT Jared Dawson (294 snaps)
  • TE Jamari Johnson (176 snaps)
  • RB Don Chaney (163 snaps)

Louisville Opt-Outs

  • QB Tyler Shough
  • WR Ja’Corey Brooks
  • WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce V
  • DE Ashton Gillotte
  • CB Quincy Riley

Senior Harrison Bailey is listed as the starting quarterback. WR Caulin Lacy is listed on the bowl depth chart after sitting out the remainder of the regular season after four games to preserve his redshirt status.

Washington Transfer Portal

  • Starting LT Kahlee Tafai (committed to Minnesota)
  • Starting LG Gaard Memmelaar
  • LB Khmori House (317 snaps; committed to Minnesota)
  • CB Elijah Jackson (162 snaps)
  • DE Lance Holtzclaw (114 snaps)
  • RB Cam Davis (158 snaps; signed with Minnesota)
  • P Jack McCallister

Washington Potential Opt-Outs:

  • DE Zach Durfee, DL Jayvon Parker and DL Russell Davis won’t play in the bowl game after sustaining injuries.

QB Will Rogers was benched for the finale, and head coach Jedd Fisch stated Demond Williams will start in the bowl.  Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick will stay with the team before leaving for UNC.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Louisville: Jeff Brohm, 4-3
  • Washington: Jedd Fisch, 1-1

Net YPP:  Louisville +1.63

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  None more key than both teams without their starting quarterbacks.  Two of the three top WRs from Louisville are also opting out.  Not that Washington wasn’t ransacked in the portal by the Minnesota Gophers.   In theory, Louisville should be able to run the ball ranking 38th in rush EPA to Washington ranking 80th in opponent yards per rush.  

Verdict:  Man this is a hard handicap right now.   Washington quarterback Demond Williams is the big wild card here.   I think Louisville wins, but I will wait to bet it if I do not decide to go for a middle.  

Play:  Learn Louisville ML -130

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl:  South Carolina vs. Illinois +10 O/U 49.5
Location:  Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time:  3 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC

South Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – Business and pleasure.   Why not?

Illinois’s Motivation:  Medium – Knowing Brett Bielema, it is more pleasure than business.

Home:  Small 1 point advantage for South Carolina playing 425 miles away.

Key Guys Missing:  

Illinois Transfer Portal

  • TE Henry Boyer (135 snaps; signed with Kentucky)
  • WR Kenari Wilcher (55 snaps; also returned kicks). Wilcher stated he still would play in bowl.
  • Backup QB Donovan Leary

Illinois Opt-Outs

  • WR Pat Bryant

Head coach Bret Bielema said he expects no other opt-outs. DE Seth Coleman did miss the finale, and starting LB Dylan Rosiek missed the final three games. Starting CB Kalen Patterson also missed the finale.

South Carolina Transfer Portal

  • Backup QB Robby Ashford (staying with team for bowl)

South Carolina Opt-Outs

  • DE Kyle Kennard

Head coach Shane Beamer said he does not believe Kennard will play in the Citrus Bowl.

South Carolina Potential Opt-Outs

  • S Nick Emmanwori (says he’ll play)
  • RB Raheim Sanders (declared for NFL Draft; not sure on status)
  • DT TJ Sanders
  • DT Tonka Hemingway
  • LB Demetrius Knight (will play)
  • WR Gage Larvadain

Shane Beamer said he doesn’t expect anybody to miss the bowl due to injury.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • South Carolina: Shane Beamer, 1-1
  • Illinois: Bret Bielema, 5-5

Net YPP:  South Carolina +.82

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  The biggest mismatch in this game is South Carolina’s defensive line ranking 7th in defensive havoc against Illinois offensive line ranking 116th in havoc.  Illinois has a poor defensive front seven.   Their offense will have to be powerful to be in this game.   Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a dual threat.

Verdict:  It’s really nice to see that both of these teams are keeping most of their guys in this game.   South Carolina will be a team that many will be on next year to win the SEC.   The line is probably correct at 9, but I would lean SC if they keep their defensive line in tact.

Play:  Lean South Carolina -9

Kinder’s Texas Bowl:  Baylor vs. LSU -3.5 O/U 59.5
Location:  NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Baylor’s Motivation:  High – Aranda would love to beat a SEC team.

LSU’s Motivation:  Medium – Brian Kelly only 6-10 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  Both are under 300 miles away from NRG Stadium, so no home field advantage.

Key Guys Missing:

Baylor Transfer Portal

  • S Corey Gordon (376 snaps)
  • DE Trey Wilson (228 snaps; committed to SMU)
  • OL Alvin Ebosele (176 snaps)
  • DL Kaian Roberts Day (91 snaps)
  • Backup QB Dequan Finn

LSU Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR CJ Daniels (committed to Miami)
  • Starting S Sage Ryan (committed to Ole Miss)
  • TE Ka’Morreun Pimpton (141 snaps)
  • DL Jay’viar Suggs (133 snaps)
  • WR Shelton Sampson (104 snaps)
  • CB JK Johnson (113 snaps; last played Week 5)
  • OLB Da’Shawn Womack (103 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
  • S Jordan Allen (111 snaps)

LSU Opt-Outs

  • LT Will Campbell
  • OT Emery Jones
  • TE Mason Taylor
  • WR Kyren Lacy

LSU has now seen both of its starting offensive tackles and its tight end declare early for the NFL Draft. Trey’Dez Green will be the only scholarship tight end available. They could kick Miles Frazier out to tackle.

LSU Potential Opt-Outs

  • OG Garrett Dellinger (been injured, but cleared to play)
  • LB Greg Penn (still undecided; been playing with a broken rib)
  • S Major Burns
  • OG Miles Frazier (looks like he’ll play and could slide out to tackle)
  • DE Sai’vion Jones

It looks like QB Garrett Nussmeier will play since he’s returning next season.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Baylor: Dave Aranada, 1-1
  • LSU: Brian Kelly, 6-10

Net YPP:  Baylor +.52

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Look at all of the LSU opt outs and transfers.   Even if these teams were equal, nobody is talking about Sawyer Robertson’s stats of 8.3 yards per attempt, 26 TDs and only 7 interceptions.   The LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looking to play is the only thing that is keeping this line down.   

Verdict:   Baylor is the best team that nobody is talking about.   Since cleaning up their turnovers, they have blown away their competition.  

Play:  Baylor -3.5

References:

https://www.si.com/betting/2024-bowl-season-every-college-football-head-coach-s-against-the-spread-record-in-bowl-games

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker

College Basketball Monday Free Play – Defensive Dons

By
Shawn Knoche
-

We have a Monday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a small slate of games. Current CBB record to start the season is a mundane 20-20, but we always pick up the pace once conference action really gets underway.

My free play today takes us to San Francisco, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the San Francisco Dons (11-3 Overall, 1-0 WCC) hosting the Santa Clara Broncos (9-5 Overall, 1-0 WCC). The line checks in with San Francisco as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 145.

After a rough 2-4 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken seven of its last eight games, and the Broncos currently ride a six-game win streak into Monday night’s contest. Last time out, Santa Clara opened up conference play defeating Pepperdine at home 91-80. Five players scored in double-figures for Santa Clara as senior guard, the Frechman Adama-Alpha Bal paced the offense with 19 points, to go along with a season-high eight assists. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 13.3 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 48.1 percent from distance through his first 14 games at SCU. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 12.1 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard.

On Saturday San Francisco opened up conference play with a 70-55 victory over Loyola Maramount at home. Mailk Thomas again led the Dons in scoring with 19 points to go along with a season-high 7 rebounds. Recently promoted starting Forward Junjie Wang chipped in his best effort of the season with 10 points. The Dons also have a 7-footer that can stretch the floor in Carlton Linguard although he isn’t nearly as efficient from outside as Tilly.

Santa Clara is playing at a slower pace the last two seasons than they had previously under Coach Herb Sendek. The Broncos have been living and dying by the three point shot with 37.4% of their points coming from deep and they are Top 50 in both triples attempted and made. That will put strength on strength tonight as the Dons are only giving up 30.9% from three on defense. In fact the Dons defense has really been solid all around. They have only allowed opponents to reach 70 points three times this season and it hasn’t happened since November 25th. I think they will continue to look to dominate in half court sets and work on keeping Santa Clara from getting out and running. Both of these offenses also turn the ball over at greater than a 17.5% clip. Both teams defenses force better than 18.0% turnover rates so there could be some lost possessions tonight. Both teams have solid rotations going 10 deep on both sides regularly.

For me this is a big time early season conference match-up where the team that plays the best defense is going to come out on top. Both their match-ups last season went under this total, and I think they are very similar teams and styles to what we saw last year. I expect the defensive intensity to be high and as long as we don’t have the whistle happy zebras tonight the score should stay low and tight. I have this game at 72-68 for the Dons, so I am playing the under tonight.

Under 145 1.5 Units

NFL Week 17 Sunday Fun-Day Plays – Sports Betting – Falcons vs Commanders

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Falcons vs Commanders +4 O/U 46.5

This game is more important then many think.  The Falcons still can win their division, and they have the tie-break with the Buccaneers.  Now I usually do not love betting on mediocre teams in must win situations, but in this game, the Commanders are in a bad spot.   Last week, Washington beat their division rival in the Eagles.   That was nice, but it took a quarterback injury for the birds to get the Job done.  The Commanders may be in let down mode.   Even if we do get a solid effort from the Commies, it’s not like they are world beaters with a defense ranking 24th in EPA.   Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr will have a chip on his shoulder as he is playing against other rookie in Jayden Daniels who has gotten a lot more praise throughout this season.   I think that the upgrade here will make this at least a close game.   Another issue with Washington is that last week, they lost a few big defensive players to injury like  S Tyler Owens, CB Marshawn Lattimore and LB Jordan McGee.  Take Atlanta with the points.

Falcons +4 – 2.5 stars

Teaser:   Colts to -2 with the Buccaneers to -1.5.  If the number isn’t there then do a 7 point teaser to get past the three.   Both have some very winnable games and the Colts should roll the terrible Giants with Flacco.

College Football Bowls & Playoffs December 28th Sports Betting – College Football

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl:  UConn vs. North Carolina -2.5 O/U 52.5
Location:  Fenway Park (Boston)
Time:  11 a.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

UCONN’s Motivation:  High – All business getting to beat a power 5 team.

North Carolina’s Motivation:  Low – Lots of distractions with Bill Belichick and the head coach hiring.

Home:  UCONN gets 3 points with only 131 miles to Boston.

Key Guys Missing:

UNC fired head coach Mack Brown, who will not be with the team for the Fenway Bowl. TE coach Freddie Kitchens will serve as the interim head coach.

UNC Transfer Portal

  • Starting LB Amare Campbell
  • Starting LT Harold Sampson (signed with Texas Tech)
  • DT Travis Shaw (301 snaps)
  • Backup QB Conner Harrell

UNC Opt-Outs

  • RB Omarion Hampton (declared for NFL Draft)
  • DE Kaimon Rucker (declared for NFL Draft)
  • DT Jahvaree Ritzie (declared for NFL Draft)

UNC Injuries:

  • TE Bryson Nesbit is out for the year.

UConn Transfer Portal

  • Starting CB Malcolm Bell
  • Starting WR Skyler Bell
  • RB Durrell Robinson (295 snaps; signed with Auburn)
  • DE Pryce Yates (304 snaps)

Potential UConn Opt-Outs

  • RT Chase Lundt
  • LT Valentin Senn
  • CB Jordan Wright got banged up in the finale.
  • DT Dal’mont Gourdine didn’t play in the finale.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • UConn: Jim Mora, 2-3
  • UNC:  Freddie Kitchens, 0-0

Net YPP:  UCONN +.28

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  The strength of schedule difference here is big where UCONN’s ranks 129 and UNC’s ranks 67th.  This one is tough as I wonder if some of the North Carolina guys will try to impress coach Belichick, or will the distraction just be too big?  In normal circumstances, I would have North Carolina a 10 point favorite here.   The total though seems a bit low as both teams rank in the 30s in tempo.   

Verdict:   Over 52.5

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl:  Boston College vs. Nebraska -4 O/U 45.5
Location:  Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ABC

Boston College’s Motivation:  Medium – They get to play a big 10 team, yet not a great one.

Nebraska’s Motivation: High – When was the last time that the corn heads made a bowl game?

Home:  Boston College gets 1 point being only 200 miles away but Nebraska has been dying to get in a bowl game.

Key Guys Missing:

Dana Holgorsen took over as Nebraska’s OC late in the year and recently signed a longer-term deal. DC Tony White left for the same job at FSU, so DB coach John Butler will coach the defense in the bowl.

Boston College Transfer Portal

  • WR Jerand Bradley (170 snaps)
  • CB Ryan Turner (168 snaps)
  • QB Thomas Castellanos (lost job late in season; signed with FSU)

Boston College Opt-Outs

  • RT Ozzy Trapilo
  • DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (I’d guess he sits)

Boston College Injuries

  • CB Amari Jackson is out for the year (last played Week 6)
  • LB Owen McGowan is out for the year (last played Week 11).
  • LB Kam Arnold hasn’t played since Week 8.

Nebraska Transfer Portal

  • Starting LB Mikai Gbayor (signed with Missouri)
  • Starting DE Jimari Butler (signed with LSU)
  • Starting TE Nate Boerkircher (363 snaps)
  • RB Dante Dowdell (273 snaps)
  • LB Stefon Thompson (175 snaps; signed with FSU)
  • OLB Princewill Umanmielen (203 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
  • OLB James Williams (188 snaps)

Nebraska Opt-Outs

  • Starting WR Isaiah Neyor

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Nebraska: Matt Rhule, 1-2
  • Boston College:  Bill O’Brien, 0-0

Net YPP:  Boston College +.22

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Boston College doesn’t throw the ball much ranking 124th in pass attempts.   Nebraska is very strong against the run ranking 19th in opponent rush EPA.   They should be able to top Boston College.

Verdict:  I might play Nebraska here but I have to make sure who is all opting out.

Play:  Lean Nebraska -4 but wait to make sure.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl:  Louisiana vs. TCU -11.5 O/U 58
Location:  University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Time:  2:15 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Louisiana’s Motivation:  Medium – They get to play a big 12 school.

TCU’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Poor destination for this team.   This place make’s the city of Milwaukee look like Vegas.

Home:  None, I can’t imagine either school wants to travel to Albuquerque

Key Guys Missing:

According to Coach Des, original quarterback Ben Wooldridge is “probable” to return and play in the bowl game this Saturday against TCU.

WR Robert Williams (379 snaps) was also carted off in the conference championship game.

Starting S Tyree Skipper — the team’s best defender — missed the last four games with an injury.

Louisiana Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR Harvey Broussard (signed with Houston)
  • Starting TE Terrence Carter (signed with Texas Tech)
  • Starting LB Carmycah Glass
  • RB Dre’lyn Washington (207 snaps)

TCU Transfer Portal

  • RB Cam Cook (373 snaps)
  • Starting C James Brockermeyer

TCU Opt-Outs

  • WR Jack Bech
  • WR Savion Williams

Both are dealing with injuries and won’t play.

Bech suffered an MCL injury in the finale and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks, but Dykes said there’s a chance he plays.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • TCU: Sonny Dykes, 3-3
  • Louisiana: Michael Desormeaux, 2-1

Net YPP:  Louisiana +.11

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  TCU clearly had the harder strength of schedule, but this handicap has to do with Cajun quarterback Ben Woolridge’s availability.   If he can go, then this spread should be around -9.5.  If not, then -11.5 is fair.  Both teams stink against the run.  Gonna make sure everyone is good to go.

Verdict:  Wait and see.

Play:   Lean Louisiana +11.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl:  Iowa State vs. Miami -3.5 O/U 56
Location:  Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC

Iowa State’s Motivation: Medium Low – They lost their shot at the playoffs, but at least get to play Miami.   Matt Campell is only 3-6 ATS in bowl games.

Miami’s Motivation:   Low – Miami was a top 4 seed a few weeks ago!   At least Cam Ward still might play.  Mario Cristobal is 2-5-1 ATS in bowls.

Home:  Miami get’s 2 points for being only 234 miles away and in the same state.

Key Guys Missing:

Iowa State Transfer Portal

  • DE Kenard Snyder (123 snaps)
  • DE Trent Jones (101 snaps)
  • Starting DE Tyler Onyedim

Iowa State Injuries:

  • LB Caleb Bacon is not expected to be back from injury.
  • RB Jaylon Jackson (232 snaps) is currently suspended and his status for the bowl is uncertain.

Miami Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR Isaiah Horton (likely headed to Alabama)
  • RB Ajay Allen (51 snaps)

Miami Potential Opt-Outs

  • QB Cam Ward
  • TE Elijah Arroyo
  • OT Jalen Rivers
  • WR Xavier Restrepo (says he’s not sure)

Cam Ward stated he will play, but that obviously could change for the potential top-five NFL Draft pick.

CB Jadais Richard hasn’t played since Week 10, and CB Dyoni Hill hasn’t since Week 11. DE Elijah Alston did return for the finale.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Iowa State: Matt Campbell, 3-6
  • Miami (Florida): Mario Cristobal, 2-5-1

Net YPP:   Miami +2.69

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Miami won’t have a problem moving the ball, the question is if they can stop Iowa State.   I think that they can as the Clones only rank 68th in offensive EPA and 93rd in offensive success rate.   This could get ugly like what ASU did to them.

Verdict:  Miami is the play at -6 or better as long as most are playing.   Cam Ward must start so wait.

Play:  Miami -3.5 but wait or Miami 1st half ML

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl:  Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State +3 O/U 40.5
Location:  Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Time:  4:30 p.m.
TV Network:  CW Network

Miami OH’s Motivation:  Medium Low – They almost won the Mac, yet still a weather upgrade over Ohio.  Chuck Martin 5-0 ATS in bowls though.

Colorado State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – This bowl feels like a punishment.  Playing in Tombstone would be better next to big nose Kate’s bar, but Jay Norvell is 3-0 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Miami (OH) Transfer Portal

  • Starting LT Will Jados (signed with Texas Tech)
  • Starting WR Reggie Virgil (signed with Texas Tech)
  • Starting WR Javon Tracy (signed with Minnesota)
  • Top CB Raion Strader (committed to Auburn)
  • CB William Hardrick (258 snaps; started at end of year)

Miami (OH) Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Cade McDonald
  • RT Reid Holskey
  • RB Dylan Downing (194 snaps) didn’t play in the MAC Championship game.

Colorado State Transfer Portal

  • Starting LB Buom Jock
  • Starting DE Mukendi Wa-Kalonji
  • Starting DE Nuer Gatkuoth
  • Starting WR Caleb Goodie (signed with Cincinnati)
  • CB Mychal Yharbrough is out for the year (last played week 8).

Colorado State Injuries

  • Stud WR Tory Horton is out for the year.
  • Starting DT Cam Bariteau missed finale.
  • WR Caleb Goodie missed the finale.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Colorado State: Jay Norvell, 3-0
  • Miami (Ohio): Chuck Martin, 5-0

Net YPP:  Miami +1.16 

Basic Stats:

Key Stats: Neither offense is good.   Colorado State’s ranks 86th in EPA to Miami who ranks 96th.   Miami does have the better defense.

Verdict:  Both teams lost some key guys, yet Colorado State is definitely the more fraudulent team here.  Miami did lose some offense to transfers.  The under was a sharp play.  I might jump in later.

Play:  Lean under 40.5 points

Go Bowling Military Bowl:  East Carolina vs. NC State -6 O/U 58.5
Location:  Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
Time:  5:45 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

East Carolina’s Motivation: Medium High – Why not beat a power 4 school?

NC State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Not a great opponent, and not a great destination.   Maybe they try some though.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

NC State lost longtime DC Tony Gibson to Marshall.

ECU interim head coach Blake Harrell, who took over midseason, has recently been named full-time head coach.

East Carolina Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR Chase Sowell (signed with Iowa State)
  • Starting CB Isaiah Brown-Murray (signed with VT)
  • Starting LB Zakye Barker
  • DL CJ Mims (339 snaps; signed with UNC)

East Carolina Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Winston Wright (declared for NFL draft; likely out)

NC State Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR KC Concepcion
  • WR Jalen Coit (53 snaps; also punt returner)

NC State Injuries

  • LB Caden Fordham is out for the year after last playing in Week 6.
  • CB Corey Coley Jr. hasn’t played since Week 6.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • North Carolina State: Dave Doeren, 5-4
  • East Carolina:  Blake Harrell (was interim now full time), 0-0

Net YPP:  East Carolina +.87

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Nothing more key than the fact that East Carolina’s schedule ranks 115th to NC State’s tat ranks 65th.  In saying that, the turnovers that these teams commit is quite significant as the Pirates are -7 and the Wolfpack is -4 in turnover margin.  This adds some variance to the handicap.  

Verdict:  I think that NC State has more to lose here.   The Pirates got their coach hired which maybe enough.  I might play NC State but I will wait until it gets closer.

Play:  Lean NC State -6

Valero Alamo Bowl:  BYU vs. Colorado -4 O/U 55
Location:  Alamodome (San Antonio)
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC

BYU’s Motivation:  Medium – They blew their playoff chances.

Colorado’s Motivation:  High – Deion has his kids excited for the first bowl game in years.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Colorado Transfer Portal

  • Starting LB Nikhai Hill-Green (signed with Alabama)
  • DE Dayon Hayes (163 snaps; signed with Texas A&M.  Hayes has been out for a while with an injury, but hinted he’d return to play in the bowl before transferring.

Colorado Potential Opt-Outs

  • None

Head coach Deion Sanders has stated he expects everybody on Colorado to play, but that could change.

Colorado Injuries

  • CB Preston Hodge missed the final three games with an injury.
  • Starting DL Amari McNeil missed the finale.
  • Starting RT Phillip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave missed the finale.
  • WR Jimmy Horn missed the final few games.

BYU Transfer Portal

  • Starting S Crew Wakley
  • LB Aisea Moa (142 snaps)
  • S Micah Harper (104 snaps)
  • WR Kody Epps (135 snaps; hurt at end of year)

BYU Injuries

  • Starting LB Harrison Taggart missed the finale, but is on bowl depth chart. It looks like the BYU defense will have everybody available except for Wakley.
  • Starting RT Brady Keim missed the last three games and his backup, Isaiah Jatta, was also out in the finale, so they moved LG Weylin Lepuaho to RT. With Jatta and Keim not listed on the depth chart, it will be Lepuaho at RT once again.
  • WR Darius Lassiter will play in the bowl but will have to sit out the first half after receiving an unsportsmanlike conduct call in the regular-season finale against Houston.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • BYU: Kalani Sitake, 3-3
  • Colorado:  Deion Sanders, 0-0

Net YPP:   BYU +.24

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Colorado has the better defense ranking 26th in success rate to BYU at 40th.   Both teams huge positives on the turnover margin with Colorado at +11 and BYU at +9.   

Verdict:  I feel that Colorado has improved as the year went on and BYU has regressed, but in saying that, I expect both teams to be motivated.  The public will surly be on Colorado here so that worries me.  The other thing that worries me is how long will Shedeur, Horn and Hunter play?   I think an over or either team total might be the safest rout to go.   Gonna wait, but I lean over.

Play:  Colorado TT over 30, or 1st half -2.5

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl:  Louisiana Tech vs. Army -17 O/U 44
Location:  Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
Time:  9:15 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

LA Tech’s Motivation:  Medium High – They get to play in a bowl game against a solid team when they thought they would be sitting home.

Army’s Motivation:  High – Jeff Monkin always gets his team up at 4-1 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  This is a home game for LA Tech.  Give them 2 points.

Key Guys Missing:

Louisiana Tech will replace Marshall in the Independence Bowl after the Thundering Herd opted out.

Louisiana Tech Transfer Portal

  • Starting DT David Blay (signed with Miami)
  • Starting CB Cedric Woods (still expected to play)
  • Starting DE J’Dan Burnett
  • Backup QB Jack Turner (will still be with team)

Louisiana Tech Injuries:

  • LB Blay, Burnett
  • LB Kolbe Fields
  • LG Bert Hale

Army Transfer Portal

  • Starting RB Kanye Udoh (signed with Arizona State)

Army Injuries

  • Edge Kyle Lewis is out for the year.
  • Backup NT Jacob Tuioti suffered an injury in the Navy game after missing the AAC championship.

Army does have a couple of potential intriguing pro prospects along the offensive line, but I doubt we’d see any opt-outs.

Coach Bowl ATS:

Army: Jeff Monken, 4-1

LA Tech:  Sonny Combie, 0-0

Net YPP:   Army +.46

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  The strange thing about this handicap is that Louisiana Tech actually shows well against the run ranking 16th in opponent rushing success rate.   This spread is HUGE compared to the very low total of 44 points.   The Bulldog’s offense is terrible ranking 126th in EPA while the Black Knight’s ranks 6th.  

Verdict:  Army is the option team that will pound the ball and then pound some more, but will they get the margin?

Play:  Lean LA Tech +17 but probably won’t play it.

References:

https://www.si.com/betting/2024-bowl-season-every-college-football-head-coach-s-against-the-spread-record-in-bowl-games

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker

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