The Cardinals out-gained the Rams 396 to 257 yet lost 13-9. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone got the Birds.
The Titans outgained the Jaguars 337 to 295 yet lost 20-13. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone got the Titans.
The Colts out-gained the Giants 446 to 389 yet lost 45-33. A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible defense smoked the ponies right out of the playoffs.
The 49ers out-gained the Lions 475 to 439 yet lost 40-34. A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.
We have a fast but great show for you today! Kiev @OBKiev is on vacation and goes solo to break down some HUGE bowl games and talk about some NFL motivational spots! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good the bad in the ugly. Next, he gets into some NFL box scores and motivational spots for week 18! Then, we get into college football playoffs and bowls from December 31th to January 2nd with some Free Plays and some leans. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The final slate of games for 2024 is an intriguing one, highlighted by the Outdoor Classic at Wrigley Field in Chicago between the Blackhawks and Blues. Here are the top numbers to look for from a first period betting standpoint on Tuesday in the NHL.
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals – 12:30 p.m. ET
The Bruins are riding a 5-0-2 stretch in the first period in the last seven games, while not allowing a goal in the opening 20 minutes six times.
The Capitals fell behind at Detroit, 4-1 after the first period in a 4-2 defeat on Sunday. Washington has not trailed after the first period in consecutive games all season.
New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs – 1:00 p.m. ET
Since November 27, the Islanders have compiled an ugly 2-10-3 mark in the first period. One of those victories came at Toronto on December 21 as New York jumped out for three goals in the first period of a 6-3 triumph.
The Leafs are on a 6-1 Over run in the first period in the past seven games, while allowing a first period goal in 11 consecutive contests.
Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights – 3:00 p.m. ET
The Habs head west winners of five of their last six games, including an impressive road sweep of the Panthers and Lightning. Montreal finally led after the first period on the road for the first time this season at Tampa Bay following an 0-9-7 start.
The Golden Knights put their six-game winning streak on the line in spite of leading after the first period twice in the past eight contests.
St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks – 5:00 p.m. ET
For the first time this season, we’ll see an outdoor game in the NHL as the Blues and Blackhawks head to the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field in Chicago.
There were four outdoor games last season in the NHL as the first period Over cashed in three of the four matchups. The Blackhawks are currently on a 4-0 Over run in the first but also own an 0-3-3 mark in the opening period in the last six games.
Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Flyers have failed to lead following the first period in eight consecutive games, including each of the first three contests of their current road trip.
San Jose has allowed a first period goal in 11 straight contests, while leading only once through 20 minutes in this span.
Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild – 8:00 p.m. ET
In spite of Monday’s shutout loss at Winnipeg, the Predators were scoreless with the Jets after the first period, marking the 21st time in 23 games that Nashville led or was tied through 20 minutes of action.
The Wild haven’t led through the first period in consecutive games since early November after taking a 1-0 advantage on Sunday over Ottawa in an eventual 3-1 defeat. Minnesota has led after the first period just twice in the last 15 contests, while leading twice in the past 16 games at XCel Energy Center since October through 20 minutes.
Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets – 8:00 p.m. ET
These Metro division rivals cashed the first period Over in each of their first two meetings this season. Carolina is currently in an 0-4-1 first period funk the past five games, while getting shut out four times.
The Blue Jackets have trailed after the first period only four times in the last 18 games, while eclipsing the first period Over in 10 of the past 12 home contests.
New Jersey Devils at Anaheim Ducks – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Devils play a pair of games the next two days in southern California as they will face the Kings in the lone New Year’s Day contest. Prior to their trip to Los Angeles, New Jersey heads to Anaheim on Tuesday looking for their ninth first period Under in the last 10 games.
The Ducks haven’t led after the first period in 12 consecutive games, while failing to score a first period goal in six of the past home contests.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Penguins haven’t trailed after the first period in the past four games, but also haven’t led after the first period in the last seven road contests.
The Red Wings are riding a 5-1 Over run the last six games in the opening period, while allowing a first period goal in each of these matchups.
Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars – 8:00 p.m. ET
Since dropping 13 consecutive games, the Sabres have come back to life with three straight victories. Also, Buffalo has dominated in the opening period recently by outscoring their opponents, 8-1.
Buffalo beat Dallas at home earlier this season, 4-2, while holding the Stars without a goal in the opening frame. The Stars have struggled in the first period of late by leading after 20 minutes once in the previous 10 contests.
Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche – 8:00 p.m. ET
Winnipeg travels to Colorado with no rest after shutting out Nashville last night. The Jets have not scored a first period goal in three games this season on the second end of a back-to-back.
The Avalanche are on a 6-1 Under run in the first period the last seven games, while looking to improve on a dreadful 2-11-4 mark in the opening frame at home this season.
Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames – 9:00 p.m. ET
The Canucks have dropped four of their past five games, with all three losses coming in overtime. Vancouver owns a 3-0-3 mark in the first period in the last six games, while finishing Under the total in seven of the past eight road contests in the first.
Calgary hasn’t allowed a first period goal in five of the last six games, while not trailing after the first period in five straight home contests.
Utah Hockey Club at Edmonton Oilers – 9:00 p.m. ET
For only the third time in 20 road games last night, Utah trailed after the first period at Seattle. The Hockey Club ventures to Edmonton tonight as Utah has allowed one first period goal in four games this season when playing with no rest.
The Oilers have played some wild first periods of late by going Over the total five times in the last six games, while allowing two goals four times in this span.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Missouri -3 O/U 40
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Iowa’s Motivation: High – Kirk Ferentz is 12-7-1 ATS in bowl games.
Missouri’s Motivation: High – Eliah Drinkwitz is 3-0 in bowl games.
Home: None, Missouri is closer but Iowa fans travel well.
Key Guys Missing:
Missouri Transfer Portal
Missouri Opt-Outs
Missouri Potential Opt-Outs
Missouri Injuries
Iowa Transfer Portal
Iowa Opt-Outs
Ferentz didn’t expect any other opt-outs.
Iowa injuries:
Head coach Kirk Ferentz says Brendan Sullivan is healthy now and will start in the bowl. Wide receiver Reece Vander Zee should also return from inury.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Net YPP: Iowa +.65
Basic stats:
Key Stats: Both teams have a pretty equal strength of schedule. Both teams had some quarterback woes. I honestly do not see where Missouri will have many advantages. Iowa is the better running team and probably the better passing team now that Sullivan is back. I think that the wrong team is favored.
Verdict: Iowa has Brendan Sullivan coming back who is better than Cade McNamara who is transferring. He got injured during the UCLA game, but played quite well in the previous two games. Take Iowa and the over being that Brady Cook should be playing for Missouri. Iowa is 9-3 to the over this year.
Play – Iowa +3 – 2.5 stars
Iowa/Missouri over 40 – 1 star
ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan +13.5 O/U 43.5
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time: Noon
TV Network: ESPN
Alabama’s Motivation: High – Some folks might not remember that this is a huge revenge spot from last year’s playoffs.
Michigan’s Motivation: Medium – Michigan beat Ohio State, what do they care about beating Alabama again? Maybe they show up.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Michigan TE coach Steve Casula will serve as interim OC in place of the let go Kirk Campbell.
Alabama Transfer Portal
While the top two are available in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, Alabama is very thin at wide receiver due to injuries and transfers.
Alabama Injuries:
Head coach Kalen DeBoer said he would let players like Milroe and Booker make their announcements on their own but feels good about the situation.
Update: It looks as if DeBoer doesn’t expect any opt-outs, but that could change.
Michigan Transfer Portal
Michigan Opt-Outs
Michigan Potential Opt-Outs
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Alabama +1.71
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Alabama in theory should have a large advantage passing the ball ranking 11th in passing play success rate to Michigan’s defense that allows lots of yards through the air ranking 80th in defensive pass EPA. I will say that Michigan has gotten better throughout the season, but their Ohio State victory may have been enough for them.
Verdict: I am quite surprised not to see more transfers out of Alabama. This is a revenge spot for them and I think that they just might dominate this game being that their best two receivers are still hanging in there.
Play: Alabama -13.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Louisville vs. Washington +2.5 O/U 49
Location: Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Time: 2 p.m.
TV Network: CBS
Louisville’s Motivation: Medium – Bad location so business trip.
Washington’s Motivation: Medium – Bad location.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Washington head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anybody to sit out. Meanwhile, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm said he wasn’t sure.
Louisville Transfer Portal
Louisville Opt-Outs
Senior Harrison Bailey is listed as the starting quarterback. WR Caulin Lacy is listed on the bowl depth chart after sitting out the remainder of the regular season after four games to preserve his redshirt status.
Washington Transfer Portal
Washington Potential Opt-Outs:
QB Will Rogers was benched for the finale, and head coach Jedd Fisch stated Demond Williams will start in the bowl. Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick will stay with the team before leaving for UNC.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Net YPP: Louisville +1.63
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: None more key than both teams without their starting quarterbacks. Two of the three top WRs from Louisville are also opting out. Not that Washington wasn’t ransacked in the portal by the Minnesota Gophers. In theory, Louisville should be able to run the ball ranking 38th in rush EPA to Washington ranking 80th in opponent yards per rush.
Verdict: Man this is a hard handicap right now. Washington quarterback Demond Williams is the big wild card here. I think Louisville wins, but I will wait to bet it if I do not decide to go for a middle.
Play: Learn Louisville ML -130
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois +10 O/U 49.5
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time: 3 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
South Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – Business and pleasure. Why not?
Illinois’s Motivation: Medium – Knowing Brett Bielema, it is more pleasure than business.
Home: Small 1 point advantage for South Carolina playing 425 miles away.
Key Guys Missing:
Illinois Transfer Portal
Illinois Opt-Outs
Head coach Bret Bielema said he expects no other opt-outs. DE Seth Coleman did miss the finale, and starting LB Dylan Rosiek missed the final three games. Starting CB Kalen Patterson also missed the finale.
South Carolina Transfer Portal
South Carolina Opt-Outs
Head coach Shane Beamer said he does not believe Kennard will play in the Citrus Bowl.
South Carolina Potential Opt-Outs
Shane Beamer said he doesn’t expect anybody to miss the bowl due to injury.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: South Carolina +.82
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The biggest mismatch in this game is South Carolina’s defensive line ranking 7th in defensive havoc against Illinois offensive line ranking 116th in havoc. Illinois has a poor defensive front seven. Their offense will have to be powerful to be in this game. Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a dual threat.
Verdict: It’s really nice to see that both of these teams are keeping most of their guys in this game. South Carolina will be a team that many will be on next year to win the SEC. The line is probably correct at 9, but I would lean SC if they keep their defensive line in tact.
Play: Lean South Carolina -9
Kinder’s Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU -3.5 O/U 59.5
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Baylor’s Motivation: High – Aranda would love to beat a SEC team.
LSU’s Motivation: Medium – Brian Kelly only 6-10 ATS in bowl games.
Home: Both are under 300 miles away from NRG Stadium, so no home field advantage.
Key Guys Missing:
Baylor Transfer Portal
LSU Transfer Portal
LSU Opt-Outs
LSU has now seen both of its starting offensive tackles and its tight end declare early for the NFL Draft. Trey’Dez Green will be the only scholarship tight end available. They could kick Miles Frazier out to tackle.
LSU Potential Opt-Outs
It looks like QB Garrett Nussmeier will play since he’s returning next season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Net YPP: Baylor +.52
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Look at all of the LSU opt outs and transfers. Even if these teams were equal, nobody is talking about Sawyer Robertson’s stats of 8.3 yards per attempt, 26 TDs and only 7 interceptions. The LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looking to play is the only thing that is keeping this line down.
Verdict: Baylor is the best team that nobody is talking about. Since cleaning up their turnovers, they have blown away their competition.
Play: Baylor -3.5
References:
We have a Monday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a small slate of games. Current CBB record to start the season is a mundane 20-20, but we always pick up the pace once conference action really gets underway.
My free play today takes us to San Francisco, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the San Francisco Dons (11-3 Overall, 1-0 WCC) hosting the Santa Clara Broncos (9-5 Overall, 1-0 WCC). The line checks in with San Francisco as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 145.
After a rough 2-4 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken seven of its last eight games, and the Broncos currently ride a six-game win streak into Monday night’s contest. Last time out, Santa Clara opened up conference play defeating Pepperdine at home 91-80. Five players scored in double-figures for Santa Clara as senior guard, the Frechman Adama-Alpha Bal paced the offense with 19 points, to go along with a season-high eight assists. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 13.3 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 48.1 percent from distance through his first 14 games at SCU. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 12.1 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard.
On Saturday San Francisco opened up conference play with a 70-55 victory over Loyola Maramount at home. Mailk Thomas again led the Dons in scoring with 19 points to go along with a season-high 7 rebounds. Recently promoted starting Forward Junjie Wang chipped in his best effort of the season with 10 points. The Dons also have a 7-footer that can stretch the floor in Carlton Linguard although he isn’t nearly as efficient from outside as Tilly.
Santa Clara is playing at a slower pace the last two seasons than they had previously under Coach Herb Sendek. The Broncos have been living and dying by the three point shot with 37.4% of their points coming from deep and they are Top 50 in both triples attempted and made. That will put strength on strength tonight as the Dons are only giving up 30.9% from three on defense. In fact the Dons defense has really been solid all around. They have only allowed opponents to reach 70 points three times this season and it hasn’t happened since November 25th. I think they will continue to look to dominate in half court sets and work on keeping Santa Clara from getting out and running. Both of these offenses also turn the ball over at greater than a 17.5% clip. Both teams defenses force better than 18.0% turnover rates so there could be some lost possessions tonight. Both teams have solid rotations going 10 deep on both sides regularly.
For me this is a big time early season conference match-up where the team that plays the best defense is going to come out on top. Both their match-ups last season went under this total, and I think they are very similar teams and styles to what we saw last year. I expect the defensive intensity to be high and as long as we don’t have the whistle happy zebras tonight the score should stay low and tight. I have this game at 72-68 for the Dons, so I am playing the under tonight.
Under 145 1.5 Units
Falcons vs Commanders +4 O/U 46.5
This game is more important then many think. The Falcons still can win their division, and they have the tie-break with the Buccaneers. Now I usually do not love betting on mediocre teams in must win situations, but in this game, the Commanders are in a bad spot. Last week, Washington beat their division rival in the Eagles. That was nice, but it took a quarterback injury for the birds to get the Job done. The Commanders may be in let down mode. Even if we do get a solid effort from the Commies, it’s not like they are world beaters with a defense ranking 24th in EPA. Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr will have a chip on his shoulder as he is playing against other rookie in Jayden Daniels who has gotten a lot more praise throughout this season. I think that the upgrade here will make this at least a close game. Another issue with Washington is that last week, they lost a few big defensive players to injury like S Tyler Owens, CB Marshawn Lattimore and LB Jordan McGee. Take Atlanta with the points.
Falcons +4 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Colts to -2 with the Buccaneers to -1.5. If the number isn’t there then do a 7 point teaser to get past the three. Both have some very winnable games and the Colts should roll the terrible Giants with Flacco.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. North Carolina -2.5 O/U 52.5
Location: Fenway Park (Boston)
Time: 11 a.m.
TV Network: ESPN
UCONN’s Motivation: High – All business getting to beat a power 5 team.
North Carolina’s Motivation: Low – Lots of distractions with Bill Belichick and the head coach hiring.
Home: UCONN gets 3 points with only 131 miles to Boston.
Key Guys Missing:
UNC fired head coach Mack Brown, who will not be with the team for the Fenway Bowl. TE coach Freddie Kitchens will serve as the interim head coach.
UNC Transfer Portal
UNC Opt-Outs
UNC Injuries:
UConn Transfer Portal
Potential UConn Opt-Outs
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: UCONN +.28
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The strength of schedule difference here is big where UCONN’s ranks 129 and UNC’s ranks 67th. This one is tough as I wonder if some of the North Carolina guys will try to impress coach Belichick, or will the distraction just be too big? In normal circumstances, I would have North Carolina a 10 point favorite here. The total though seems a bit low as both teams rank in the 30s in tempo.
Verdict: Over 52.5
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska -4 O/U 45.5
Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Time: Noon
TV Network: ABC
Boston College’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play a big 10 team, yet not a great one.
Nebraska’s Motivation: High – When was the last time that the corn heads made a bowl game?
Home: Boston College gets 1 point being only 200 miles away but Nebraska has been dying to get in a bowl game.
Key Guys Missing:
Dana Holgorsen took over as Nebraska’s OC late in the year and recently signed a longer-term deal. DC Tony White left for the same job at FSU, so DB coach John Butler will coach the defense in the bowl.
Boston College Transfer Portal
Boston College Opt-Outs
Boston College Injuries
Nebraska Transfer Portal
Nebraska Opt-Outs
Coach Bowl ATS:
Net YPP: Boston College +.22
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Boston College doesn’t throw the ball much ranking 124th in pass attempts. Nebraska is very strong against the run ranking 19th in opponent rush EPA. They should be able to top Boston College.
Verdict: I might play Nebraska here but I have to make sure who is all opting out.
Play: Lean Nebraska -4 but wait to make sure.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana vs. TCU -11.5 O/U 58
Location: University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Time: 2:15 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Louisiana’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play a big 12 school.
TCU’s Motivation: Medium Low – Poor destination for this team. This place make’s the city of Milwaukee look like Vegas.
Home: None, I can’t imagine either school wants to travel to Albuquerque
Key Guys Missing:
According to Coach Des, original quarterback Ben Wooldridge is “probable” to return and play in the bowl game this Saturday against TCU.
WR Robert Williams (379 snaps) was also carted off in the conference championship game.
Starting S Tyree Skipper — the team’s best defender — missed the last four games with an injury.
Louisiana Transfer Portal
TCU Transfer Portal
TCU Opt-Outs
Both are dealing with injuries and won’t play.
Bech suffered an MCL injury in the finale and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks, but Dykes said there’s a chance he plays.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Louisiana +.11
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: TCU clearly had the harder strength of schedule, but this handicap has to do with Cajun quarterback Ben Woolridge’s availability. If he can go, then this spread should be around -9.5. If not, then -11.5 is fair. Both teams stink against the run. Gonna make sure everyone is good to go.
Verdict: Wait and see.
Play: Lean Louisiana +11.5
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami -3.5 O/U 56
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
Iowa State’s Motivation: Medium Low – They lost their shot at the playoffs, but at least get to play Miami. Matt Campell is only 3-6 ATS in bowl games.
Miami’s Motivation: Low – Miami was a top 4 seed a few weeks ago! At least Cam Ward still might play. Mario Cristobal is 2-5-1 ATS in bowls.
Home: Miami get’s 2 points for being only 234 miles away and in the same state.
Key Guys Missing:
Iowa State Transfer Portal
Iowa State Injuries:
Miami Transfer Portal
Miami Potential Opt-Outs
Cam Ward stated he will play, but that obviously could change for the potential top-five NFL Draft pick.
CB Jadais Richard hasn’t played since Week 10, and CB Dyoni Hill hasn’t since Week 11. DE Elijah Alston did return for the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Miami +2.69
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Miami won’t have a problem moving the ball, the question is if they can stop Iowa State. I think that they can as the Clones only rank 68th in offensive EPA and 93rd in offensive success rate. This could get ugly like what ASU did to them.
Verdict: Miami is the play at -6 or better as long as most are playing. Cam Ward must start so wait.
Play: Miami -3.5 but wait or Miami 1st half ML
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State +3 O/U 40.5
Location: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Time: 4:30 p.m.
TV Network: CW Network
Miami OH’s Motivation: Medium Low – They almost won the Mac, yet still a weather upgrade over Ohio. Chuck Martin 5-0 ATS in bowls though.
Colorado State’s Motivation: Medium Low – This bowl feels like a punishment. Playing in Tombstone would be better next to big nose Kate’s bar, but Jay Norvell is 3-0 ATS in bowl games.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Miami (OH) Transfer Portal
Miami (OH) Potential Opt-Outs
Colorado State Transfer Portal
Colorado State Injuries
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Miami +1.16
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Neither offense is good. Colorado State’s ranks 86th in EPA to Miami who ranks 96th. Miami does have the better defense.
Verdict: Both teams lost some key guys, yet Colorado State is definitely the more fraudulent team here. Miami did lose some offense to transfers. The under was a sharp play. I might jump in later.
Play: Lean under 40.5 points
Go Bowling Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. NC State -6 O/U 58.5
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
Time: 5:45 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
East Carolina’s Motivation: Medium High – Why not beat a power 4 school?
NC State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not a great opponent, and not a great destination. Maybe they try some though.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
NC State lost longtime DC Tony Gibson to Marshall.
ECU interim head coach Blake Harrell, who took over midseason, has recently been named full-time head coach.
East Carolina Transfer Portal
East Carolina Potential Opt-Outs
NC State Transfer Portal
NC State Injuries
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: East Carolina +.87
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the fact that East Carolina’s schedule ranks 115th to NC State’s tat ranks 65th. In saying that, the turnovers that these teams commit is quite significant as the Pirates are -7 and the Wolfpack is -4 in turnover margin. This adds some variance to the handicap.
Verdict: I think that NC State has more to lose here. The Pirates got their coach hired which maybe enough. I might play NC State but I will wait until it gets closer.
Play: Lean NC State -6
Valero Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. Colorado -4 O/U 55
Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
BYU’s Motivation: Medium – They blew their playoff chances.
Colorado’s Motivation: High – Deion has his kids excited for the first bowl game in years.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Colorado Transfer Portal
Colorado Potential Opt-Outs
Head coach Deion Sanders has stated he expects everybody on Colorado to play, but that could change.
Colorado Injuries
BYU Transfer Portal
BYU Injuries
Coach Bowl ATS:
Net YPP: BYU +.24
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Colorado has the better defense ranking 26th in success rate to BYU at 40th. Both teams huge positives on the turnover margin with Colorado at +11 and BYU at +9.
Verdict: I feel that Colorado has improved as the year went on and BYU has regressed, but in saying that, I expect both teams to be motivated. The public will surly be on Colorado here so that worries me. The other thing that worries me is how long will Shedeur, Horn and Hunter play? I think an over or either team total might be the safest rout to go. Gonna wait, but I lean over.
Play: Colorado TT over 30, or 1st half -2.5
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Army -17 O/U 44
Location: Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
Time: 9:15 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
LA Tech’s Motivation: Medium High – They get to play in a bowl game against a solid team when they thought they would be sitting home.
Army’s Motivation: High – Jeff Monkin always gets his team up at 4-1 ATS in bowl games.
Home: This is a home game for LA Tech. Give them 2 points.
Key Guys Missing:
Louisiana Tech will replace Marshall in the Independence Bowl after the Thundering Herd opted out.
Louisiana Tech Transfer Portal
Louisiana Tech Injuries:
Army Transfer Portal
Army Injuries
Army does have a couple of potential intriguing pro prospects along the offensive line, but I doubt we’d see any opt-outs.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Army: Jeff Monken, 4-1
LA Tech: Sonny Combie, 0-0
Net YPP: Army +.46
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The strange thing about this handicap is that Louisiana Tech actually shows well against the run ranking 16th in opponent rushing success rate. This spread is HUGE compared to the very low total of 44 points. The Bulldog’s offense is terrible ranking 126th in EPA while the Black Knight’s ranks 6th.
Verdict: Army is the option team that will pound the ball and then pound some more, but will they get the margin?
Play: Lean LA Tech +17 but probably won’t play it.
References:
As Of Thursday 12/26
Sharp Money On:
Sharp Totals:
We have a great show for you today! Kiev @OBKiev goes solo to break down some HUGE bowl games and NFL week 17! First, Kiev talks about our agenda going forward. Next, we get into college football bowls from December 28th to the 31st with some Free Plays and some leans. Then, Kiev talks some NFL week 17 with three dog plays that he really likes this week. After that, we give out our refuse to lose teaser that is 12-4 for the season! Finally, we get into some sharp money movement and recap our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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As Of Thursday 12/26
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