BMW Championship – Preview & Picks

Lucas Glover continues to roll as he has now won his second event in a row defeating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’ll look for his third consecutive win this week a feat which has only been accomplished twice on Tour since 2004. Jon Rahm had a chance to win three in a row earlier this year but ended up finishing T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs kicks off this week with a 50-player field at the BMW Championship. The North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club plays host to the event for the second time with the first being back in 2020.

Jon Rahm was the winner of the BMW Championship back in 2020 and is currently in first place in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Patrick Cantlay has won this event in back-to-back years. He’s coming off an impressive performance last week so he’s in solid form. Each of the golfers who tried for their third-straight TOUR titles this season – Viktor Hovland (World Wide Technologies Championship), Sam Burns (Valspar Championship), KH Lee (AT&T Byron Nelson), and Rory McIlroy (RBC Canadian Open), fell short in their attempts so we’ll see if Cantlay can come through this week.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 17th, 2023 – August 20th, 2023
• Location: Olympia Fields, Illinois, United States
• Course: Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
• Course Type: Classical
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,366 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass / Poa annua .095”
• Fairways: Bentgrass / Poa annua .400”
• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass 4” plus
• Bunkers: 91
• Water Hazard(s): 2 (In-Play on 8 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,238 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$4,800,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
• Field/ Cut: 50 Pros | No Cut
• Playoff Holes: 18, 18, 17, 18, then (16, 17, 18 repeated)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2020: 71.82 (+1.82), Rank 4 of 41

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, August 17th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, August 18th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, August 19th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, August 20th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: AM Showers 79 F, 15 mp/h W, 70% Humidity, 65% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Sunny 77 F, 5 mp/h NNW, 61% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 82 F, 12 mp/h S, 63% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 87 F, 8 mp/h S, 66% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain

 

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.

The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Olympia Fields Country Club was founded in 1915. Just ten years later, the club had four 18-hole courses and the largest private clubhouse in the world with an 80-foot, four-faced clock tower visible to golfers from all four first tees. During World War II the club fell into financial troubles and was forced to sell half of its land which has led to two courses remaining, the North and the South.

The host venue features two courses, a North, and a South course. The North course, formerly the club’s No. 4 Course, was designed by Willie Park, Jr. and is the longer of two courses playing just over 7,300 yards. The South course, formerly the club’s No. 1 Course, which will not be featured this week, was designed by Tom Bendelow.

In addition to hosting the BMW Championship, several other major tournaments have been held here including the U.S. Open (1928,2003), the PGA Championship (1925, 1961), the U.S. Senior Open (1997), and the U.S. Amateur (2015).

Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event. It was held at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club until 2011, except for Bellerive Country Club playing host in 2008. From 2011 to 2017, the event was hosted at three different courses including Crooked Stick Golf Club (’12,’16), Conway Farms Golf Club (’13, ’15,’17), and Cherry Hill Country Club (’14). After that, the event has been held at a different course each year. The BMW Championship returns to Olympia Fields Country Club for the second time making it the only venue to host this event twice since then.

• 72-Hole Record (Olympia Fields):
  • 276, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson (2020)
• 18-Hole Record (Olympia Fields):
  • 64, Jon Rahm (4th round, 2020)

• 72-Hole Record (Event):
  • 261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)
• 18-Hole Record (Event):
  • 59, Jim Furyk (2nd round, 2013)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club is on the longer side measuring 7,366 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 46, with the average fairway width being 26.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,238 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 91 bunkers that rank as the 8th most out of the 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 251 yards. Three Par 3’s had a scoring average over par back in 2020 with the exclusion being No. 13.

No. 8, Par 3, 251 Yards: “This monster of a par 3 calls for one of the toughest shots on the entire course. The tee shot is long and uphill and is hit into the prevailing wind, while the green is well-protected left and right with big, deep bunkers, three left one right. Most players will hit fairway woods or long irons into the center of the green and hope to two-putt, but the putting surface has so many ripples and undulations that you could see just as many three-putts. For those hitting long, there will be a collection area behind the green from where they can try to get up and down for par. This is what we call a “getaway” hole. You take your par and get away fast.”

No. 13, Par 3, 168 Yards: “About all the golfers can see from the tee of this uphill par 3 is the back of the green as most of the front sits in a large swale. The safe play is to the middle of the green followed by two putts for par, but that will be a tall order when the hole is cut up on the back-right shelf. And anyone who tries to get too precise with a forward hole location could end up in the front-left or front-right greenside bunkers, some 10 feet beneath the putting surface. This may be the shortest hole on the course, but it is not necessarily a birdie hole.”

The twelve Par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Only one of the Par 4’s had a scoring average below par in 2020 which was No. 4.

No. 3, Par 4, 461 Yards: “This is the signature hole for this nine. The first thing you notice is that there are no fairway bunkers. The second thing is that the hole doesn’t need any. The tee shot is hit blind, out of a tight chute, to a narrow fairway that sits beyond and down a steep hill. And it must find the left of the fairway or trees may block the approach to the small, elevated green. A clear approach will likely call for a middle iron, but holding this green will be difficult as the slope of the surface is one of the most severe on the course. Anything that lands on the front may roll off the green and back down a steep stretch of fairway.”

No. 14, Par 4, 450 Yards: “This is the signature hole on this nine. Butterfield Creek crosses in front of the tee about 125 yards out then runs down the right of a fairway that has been shifted over toward it to bring the creek very much into play. The creek then crosses the hole again at the base of a berm some 300 yards from the tee. The elevated tee shot calls for a long iron or 3-wood to take the creek out of play, but that leaves an uphill shot over the creek to an elevated green with a tremendous amount of back-to-front slope. Anything blocked to the right will find trees while anything hit to the front of the green could roll back off and down the steeply sloping fairway. Instead of two routine putts for par, a player could be facing a 40-yard chip shot.”

The two Par 5’s, No. 1 and No. 15 both measure over 600 yards. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.

No. 1, Par 5, 626 Yards: “This long, straight par 5 should present little difficulty to the average touring professional – provided he stays out of the fairway and greenside bunkers. The revamped bunkering has made the North Course much more challenging. A tee shot that finds a fairway bunker here takes away a chance of reaching the green in two, as the bunkers are too deep to allow the fairway wood or long-iron shot required. An approach that finds a greenside bunker will leave the golfer well below the level of the green, hitting up to a back-to-front sloping putting surface. The ideal way to play the hole is to hit a tee shot over the right edge of the left fairway bunker, and leave a fairway metal or long iron to the green.”

No. 15, Par 5, 606 Yards: “This hole may prove to be a most rare specie for the field: a par 5 that isn’t a guaranteed birdie. There are two ways to play it. Shorter hitters will play it as a true three-shotter because the fairway turns sharply to the right about 275 yards from the green. Look for them to use a long iron or fairway wood off the tee, then hit a long iron to set up a wedge shot. The bigger hitters can reach in two – but only if they keep their tee shots down the left, and that’s not easy to do as the fairway slope works against them. If they end up to the right, they’ll have to hit a slice – not just a fade – around the crook of the curve to reach the green. Of course, they’d be better laying up.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3, 14

You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Driving Distance
• Scrambling
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
• Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 650 (x2)
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 50 players competing in this year’s BMW Championship.  Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+650) finished T12 at the BMW Championship back in 2020, the last time Olympia Fields played host to this event. He also won this event back in 2012 when it was at Crooked Stick Golf Club. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in his last eight tournaments. During that span, he captured his second win of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Scottie Scheffler (+700) has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts on the PGA Tour, something he hasn’t done all season. Before that, he had finished inside the top-5 in seven consecutive events. At the 2020 BMW Championship, Scheffler finished T20.

Jon Rahm (+900) struggled at the FedEx St. Jude Championship finishing T37. It was just the second time all season that he lost strokes off the tee. Rahm has some of the best event history finishing inside the top 10 in five of his six appearances. He also won the 2020 BMW Championship which was played at Olympia Fields.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000) has won back-to-back BMW Championships. At the 2020 BMW Championship, he finished T12. Cantlay is coming off a strong performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he lost in a playoff to Lucas Glover.

Viktor Hovland (+1600) has two wins this season and has finished inside the top 15 in each of his last two starts on Tour. In 2020, he finished T40 at this event.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field (Olympia Fields):
  • Jon Rahm (’20)

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Patrick Cantlay (’22. ’21), Jon Rahm (’20), Keegan Bradley (’18), Jason Day (’15)

• Injury Concerns:
  • Tom Kim (Wrist / Ankle)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.

You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.

 

Horses for Courses (Olympia Fields Country Club):

	BMW Championship
	Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
	2020
Jon Rham	1
Hideki Matsuyama	3
Tony Finau	5
Matthew Fitzpatrick	6
Brendon Todd	8
Patrick Cantlay	T12
Rory McIlroy	T12
Byeong-Hun An	T12
Brian Harman	T12
Tyrrell Hatton	16

 

Donkeys for Courses (Olympia Fields Country Club):

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	BMW Championship
	Olympia Fields (North Course)
	2020
Sungjae Im	T56
J.T. Poston	T59
Max Homa	T59
Jason Day	64
Tom Hoge	T65

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices (Event – BMW Championship):

• 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) – Wilmington Country Club (South)
  • Price: 16-1
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
  • Price: 25-1
• 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
  • Price: 10-1
• 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
  • Price: 16-1
• 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) – Aronimink Golf Club
  • Price: 140-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Viktor Hovland (+1600) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

• Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Max Homa (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Corey Conners (+105) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units

• Jason Day (+110) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

• Keegan Bradley (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

• Emiliano Grillo (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 4.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the BMW Championship: 5.19 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.