We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC South
2022 Records
Tampa Bay 8-9/ Carolina 7-10/ New Orleans 7-10/ Atlanta 7-10
New Orleans – This team should have won the South last year (And cashed my mid-year division play on them), but alas they did not. I think they have the most talent across the board in the South and Derek Carr should be an upgrade over Andy Dalton especially from a mobility aspect. They’ll need it as they did nothing to fix the O-Line. I like the Jamaal Williams signing with the Kamara suspension upcoming. The receiving core of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should get a healthy Michael Thomas to start the year putting this group of skill players high on my rankings list. The defense is getting quite an overhaul as Cameron Jordan is the only starter on the D-Line returning, but they had a good draft led by DE Bryan Bresee and I think they can piece together enough in the back 7 to be a middle of the pack defense. Oh, and did I mention the they have the #1 easiest schedule? Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Under at -125, Over -105
Atlanta – Well Desmond Ridder Or Die is the motto in Atlanta this year. They could have gotten a QB in the draft and had plenty of cap space to make an offer to Lamar Jackson the Ravens would have had difficulty matching. They decided to go with Ridder. Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London will be his primary weapons besides his feet. This will be a heavy run first attack with Tyler Allgeier and Robinson. The team re-signed a boatload of their own players using those free agency dollars as they had a record number of expiring contracts this off-season. They also made some splashes on the defensive side of the ball with safety Jessie Bates and DL David Onyemata. This team has the second easiest schedule in the NFL and if Ridder turns into something I could see them challenging New Orleans for the division title. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Over at -145, Under +115
Carolina – The Panthers have had five different QBs lead the team in passing the last five seasons. They invested heavily in Bryce Young to the tune of 4 draft picks and D.J. Moore to stop that streak at six. They also got some serious help in free agency in Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, Hayden Hurst and D.J. Chark to get Young some weapons right away. On defense they signed Vonn Bell which gives them two proven safeties to limit big plays, but this defense overall needed a lot more help coming in 25th in DVOA. I’m not seeing enough improvement here, and while they may take some of the positive momentum forward from last season after Matt Rhule was fired the Rookie QB and defensive issues are going to be trouble. For every Dak, Big Ben and Andrew Luck there are many more Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch and Johnny Manziel’s. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Even at -115
Tampa Bay – Tom Brady is gone. Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is in. That should tell you everything you need to know about how I think the season in Tampa is going to go. This team still has high end talent on offense like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and defensive playmakers at all three levels . Even so, this team did not perform well last season and with so much dead cap space they couldn’t do much in free agency to improve it. They will need to assess the situation early in the year, and hope they can find a way to hash out some wins, but I don’t see it turning out well for them and they may just move on to planning for 2024. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under at -140, Over +110
2023 Predictions
New Orleans 10-7
Atlanta 9-8
Carolina 5-12
Tampa Bay 5-12
NFC South Action:
New Orleans – Lean Over. Just for fun here are the opposing QBs for the Saints this season: Ryan Tannenhill, Bryce Young x2, Jordan Love, Kyle Task x2, Mac Jones, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Desmond Ridder x2, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Matt Stafford. That’s 4 opposing QBs in 17 games I have ranked in the top 50% of NFL QBs. If you got this early at a better number well done. It’s too close to play now.
Atlanta – Lean Over – Another one where if you played it early when juiced to the under it was a small play, but not here.
Carolina – Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit. I’ve got them 2.5 games under on my projections. I’m hesitant to bet an under in this division due to strength of schedule but they get Seattle, Miami and Dallas in the three non assigned games and combined with the Rookie QB and defensive issues I’m making it a small play.
Tampa Bay – Lean Under. There’s enough talent on this roster still where if they get rolling I could see 7 wins.
