*CFB(1.5u): Georgia -2.5(-120) vs Alabama–Monday 7 PM CT
Alabama might be the #1 ranked team in the CFP, but Georgia was the better team virtually all season. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams; this version of the Crimson Tide squeaked by with 1 possession wins against 6-6 Auburn, 6-6 LSU, and 6-6 Florida. Of course, Alabama did beat this Georgia team handily in the SEC Championship game. However, I do not think the Tide offense will have that same success this second time around.
Alabama lost WR John Metchie to a torn ACL in that SEC title game; in turn, we saw Alabama’s passing game get somewhat bottled up against Cincinnati. Bryce Young went just 17/28 through the air and threw for 181 yards, or 6.5 yards/attempt. Jameson Williams was keyed on by Cincinnati’s DB’s(7 catches, only 62 yards), and I’d expect a similar game plan from Georgia in this one, especially considering how much Williams torched them a month ago. Alabama’s running backs had a ton of success against Cincinnati, but this not a Tide RB crew I’m very high on. Lead back Brian Robinson Jr averaged less than 5 YPC during the regular season and was bottled up rather consistently later in the season. There is obviously talent behind Robinson, but I don’t think we’ll see any of those guys play a huge role in this one. I could not be higher on Georgia’s defense even with the result of these teams’ first matchup in mind. This is a unit that allowed less than 10 PPG this season and recorded 5 shutouts in the process. Coming off that fluky performance against Alabama, the ‘Dogs completed dominated Michigan’s offense, sacking Cade McNamara 4 times, forcing 2 turnovers, and holding the Michigan RB’s(which are better than Alabama’s) to right at 4 YPC.
We can all acknowledge how good this Georgia defense is, but I think their offense is way better than advertised. QB Stetson Bennett is obviously not as talented as Bryce Young, but he actually had a higher QBR than the Heisman Trophy winner did this season. Bennett is much more of a game manager than Young, but he excelled in that role this season, throwing for over 10 yards/attempt this season. He reached that 10 Y/A mark in the Michigan game and was not sacked once despite facing a lethal Michigan pass rush. Georgia is VERY deep at RB, with their top 3 backs all averaging over 5 YPC this season. This unit struggled for Georgia a bit against Bama in the first go round, but I’d expect a much better performance this go round. As I mentioned, Georgia is excellent up front and is set up better than any team in the country to go against this Alabama front 7.
Alabama’s defense completely dominated Cincinnati; Desmond Ridder was sacked 6 times. This unit got much more consistent as the season closed, but they are somewhat leaky in their secondary. They got absolutely torched by A&M QB Zach Calzada, who was unable to repeat that performance throughout the rest of the season. Arkansas also threw the ball at will on this Tide secondary. While Desmond Ridder threw for just 4.5 Y/A, I’d attribute that mostly to Alabama winning up front and disrupting Ridder’s timing. Stetson Bennett finished with 340 yards through the air in the SEC title game; that’s not his game, but he did prove he could be proficient through the air on this Tide defense.
I’ve talked to many people about this game, and the common sentiment is that Nick Saban just has Kirby Smart’s number. I don’t have a rebuttal for that. However, from a pure football stampoint, I have no doubt that Georgia is the better team. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams, while this is Georgia’s best team in 4 decades. At less than a field goal, I like Georgia to FINALLY get over the hump and win their first national championship since 1980.
