The Clippers and Suns played an entertaining game one but it was Devin Booker that stole the show, scoring 40 points and snatching 13 rebounds and 11 assists to lead his team to a win. Back at their home arena, the Suns will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead while LAC will compete desperately to prevent that from happening. Onto my picks for game two!
Clippers +6 (-115), 2 units and
1st Quarter under 56 (-110), 1.5 units and
Paul George over 30.5 points (-130), 1.3 units:
I’ll hit an explanation for each of these picks in the proceeding paragraphs. Before I do that, I have to say that I really love the teams that are in the West Finals. Think about it — we have the Kawhi-less Clippers, which is a huge test for the depth of their team and an even bigger test for “playoff-Paul” as he looks to shake off the stigma of failure in the postseason. On the other side we’re anxiously awaiting the return of Chris Paul, the heralded but still underestimated veteran point guard who, next to Lebron, might be the best court general in the NBA right now. On the same team is Devin Booker, an awakening giant who’s at the brink of superstardom after he dropped 40 in game one. This entire series should be great TV.
Onto my rationale. The Clippers played well on Sunday; well enough to beat a lot of NBA teams. The Suns played phenomenally. They shot a staggering 55% from the field, out-rebounded, out-assisted, and out-shot LAC from the free throw line, dominated in fast break opportunities (16 to 4), and had 54 points in the paint (LAC only had 34). Devin Booker was dominant but so was his entire team. Six different Suns scored in the double-digits. The Suns are one of those teams that when they’re hot, they’re really hot. In that way they live up to their name but let’s not overreact. Remember, this is the same Clippers team that was down 2-0 to the Jazz and then lost Kawhi when the series was 2-2. They closed it out in the next 2 games, one of which was on the road, without their mega-star and never looked back. That was against the NBA’s best team in the regular season.
The Suns are good, really good, but the Clippers are still a deeper and more technically skilled team. That’s true even without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers’ bench players could be starters on a lot of NBA rosters and LAC was top 5 in defense and offensive efficiency for the majority of the year. They also led the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. While I’m not suggesting that means that LAC will win this series, I am suggesting that this line is wrong. Even on the road, when we’re given 6 points with a team as capable as the Clippers, we can’t pass on it unless there are grave circumstances to do so.
Phoenix is capable of going on runs because of their electric shooters. Led by Devin Booker, Crowder, Bridges, Payne and others off the bench can all nail shots from the perimeter. When Chris Paul is facilitating all that talent it’s really tough to stop. In that way Kawhi Leonard’s absence as a defender certainly hurts LAC but it’s not a death sentence. Tyronn Lue and the Clippers realize they need to improve their defensive effort in game two. Due to the big pressure of the moment, it’s not uncommon to see NBA games where the scoring is lower in the 1st and 4th quarters and higher in the 2nd and 3rd. That’s what we saw in game one and I think we’ll see a similar thing in game two. Look for lower scoring in the 1st quarter as each team attempts to gain control of the contest. If there’s a surge of buckets in the middle two quarters, look for a live total that’s too high and hit the under.
Finally, it goes without say that this is a huge moment for Paul George. Without Kawhi, George has scored 37, 28, and 34 points in three playoff games. In game one he scored 34 points even though he only shot 10/26 from the field. In George’s mind, that’s not enough. While the Suns have a fantastic defense capable of silencing star players, they’re probably very satisfied with their performance in game one. Without making too many adjustments, look for Paul George to take advantage and keep shouldering the offensive load for his team. He’s still their best offensive performer with Kawhi out and if LAC wants to win, he’ll need to be aggressive from the get-go.
The truth is, I want the Suns to win this series. They’re extremely fun to watch, they’re young, and I’m all-in on buying Booker stock. I just can’t imagine them winning by more than 2 possessions in game two. This should be a very contentious, very testy showdown between these two balanced, elite units. Expect another entertaining 48 minutes!
