The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 is here, and the excitement is palpable! With powerhouse programs and one double digit seed still in the mix, this round promises thrilling matchups and unforgettable moments. There is also some good betting situations that I preview right here below:
Thursday:
BYU vs Alabama -5 O/U 175.5 – Prudential Center Newark NJ
- You have to love the 2 former Rutgers players facing off in Mawot Mag for BYU and Cliff Omoyuri.
- I think the luck will run out here for BYU. Alabama is the kind of team that can beat the Cougars at their own game of speed ball with rebounding.
- The big difference that the Tide have over what Wisconsin had is a huge inside presence that should be able to dominate BYU down low.
- The Cougars out-rebounded the Badgers 49 – 32 which was the main difference in the game.
- Do not think for a second that BYU will have the same advantages. Alabama has a great defense ranking 24th in the league while BYU’s ranks 65th. The Tide will have advantages from deep, mid range and near the ream. Lay the Points.
- Alabama -5 – 2 stars
Maryland vs Florida -6.5 O/U 157.5 – Chase Center San Francisco CA
- Both teams won very close games last weekend. Florida has been cold since the 1st half of their game against Norfolk State. Maryland got by on some end of the game heroics and a few good whistles.
- No need to toe-tap this one. The Gators are the better team here by 10 points. They should be able to clean up the boards as well as well as hit from everywhere. Maryland is inconsistent and they will not be able to catch up once a lead is established.
- Once the fouls kick in, the Terps will have no one to turn to off of the bench as this team isn’t deep.
- Florida is too big big for Maryland and too deep for Maryland.
- Lay the points
- Florida -6.5 – 2.5 stars
Arizona vs Duke -9.5 O/U – 153.5 – Prudential Center Newark NJ
- When is Duke going to have a bad game?
- These two tams faced off back in November in Tucson where the Blue Devils won with ease 69 – 55.
- I toyed with Duke last game and got burned. They are right now the best team in college basketball.
- Duke will have advantages shooting the three ball as well as mid range. Arizona is pretty good inside, but not good enough to stop Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach.
- I think that Arizona pushes the pace here enough to see a lot of points. It is a far cry from November where there was a ton of missed shots on 68 possessions.
- Duke hasn’t scored less than 80 points without Flagg since Mid February.
- Arizona hasn’t put up less than 76 points since March 1st.
- This total should be at least around 155 or so. Take the over.
- Over 153.5 – 2 stars
Arkansas vs Texas Tech -5.5 O/U 146.5 – Chase Center San Francisco CA
- The Hogs are playing some very inspired ball. They are very confusing lately as their supposed best players has been out a few weeks and and the team is even better. The mid range shot has been amazing for them over the past few games.
- The issue with Arkansas is not only their inconsistency, but also their lack of depth due to injuries.
- The hogs play solid defense at times, but they tend to allow a lot of threes to go in when teams are hitting them. Texas Tech shoots a lot of threes and they also will have an advantage near the rim and rebounding the ball.
- It feels like Tech could blow this team out, and it also feels like it could be a close game.
- Lean Texas Tech -5.5
Friday:
Ole Miss vs Michigan State -3.5 O/U 144.5 – State Farm Arena, Atlanta Georgia
- Sparty Fans travel well, but this is a lot closer to home for Ole Miss fans who are 332 miles from campus.
- According to the metrics, Michigan State ha the better defense ranking 5th on Haslametrics to 22nd for Ole mIss. The Rebels do have the better offense ranking 18th to Sparty at 21st.
- I do not see many advantages for Michigan State here minus close to the rim. If sparty is losing, they may not have the refs to rely on again in SEC country. They also do not shoot the three ball all that well which makes it harder to play catchup.
- I have this game closer to pickem.
- Lean Ole Miss +3.5 and lean 1st half under
Kentucky vs Tennessee -4.5 O/U 145.5 – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
- Lucas Oil Stadium is a lot closer for Kentucky fans at 183 miles away compared to 357 miles away from Knoxville.
- This might be the most competitive game of the round of 16.
- Kentucky beat the Vols twice this year and I think that they can do it again.
- According to the metrics, Tennessee has the much better defense with a similiar offense.
- Kentucky shot 50% from deep over their last two meetings. I think that Mark Pope just knows how to get his guys open against this Vols team.
- The Cat’s stats are not complete as Lamont Butler has missed about 9 regular season games. I think that he slows down the Vols from deep, Kentucky has the height to play with this team.
- Lastly, there is a coaching mismatch here as Mark Pope is better than Rick Barnes.
- Kentucky +4.5 – 2 stars
Michigan vs Auburn -9.5 O/U 152.5 – State Farm Arena, Atlanta Georgia
- This is a home game for the overall 1 seed Auburn being only 109 miles away from home.
- Michigan fans will have to travel, but it’s not like we haven’t seen them do this before.
- I have seen the Tigers go on some pretty fierce runs in the past. Michigan plays pretty fast, but their defense and rebounding is why they are here.
- The big problem with Michigan is that they turn the ball over at 19.6% of their possessions. Auburn is a good fast break team and the points can pile on. This mixed with home court advantage tells me Auburn could blow this team out.
- I am also worried some that the Tigers do not have any real matchup advantages over Michigan’s defense. Auburn has also been a bit sus over the past few weeks. My number is 8.
- Lean Michigan +9.5
Purdue vs Houston -8 O/U 132.5- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
- Purdue or Purdon’t? That is the question.
- This is CLEARLY a home game for Purdue only 65 miles away. I think we still see some Houston fans fans. This is also rough for Houston as Tennessee and Kentucky isn’t far away either.
- Being close to home might not matter so much when Houston has every single matchup advantage over Purdue minus three point shooting. Houston is the better rebounding team as well as the better offense.
- In saying all of this, I could see a very slow start to the game as Purdue will struggle against Houston’s swarming defense and extremely slow pace.
- Eventually, Purdue wears out and the spread might not be a factor when Houston closes it out.
- Lean 1st half under 62.5 – 1.5 stars
