Preview:
I would call this the second easiest quadrant for the smaller teams. Kentucky has some injury issues, while Tennessee and Houston can get cold when it comes to scoring. I still think Houston gets to the final four, but there will be a lot of ATS opportunities upon us.
The Midwest quadrant of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling battleground. Houston, the No. 1 seed, is a solid favorite, boasting an impressive season and a gritty, defensive style of play. However, the path to the Final Four won’t be easy, with formidable teams like Tennessee (No. 2 seed), Kentucky (No. 3 seed), and Purdue (No. 4 seed) in the mix.
Potential upsets and Cinderella stories are always a highlight of March Madness. Keep an eye on High Point, a No. 13 seed, which has the offensive firepower to challenge Purdue in the first round. Similarly, McNeese State, a No. 12 seed, could pose a threat to Clemson, thanks to their strong non-conference performances.
Key matchups to watch include Houston vs. Tennessee, which could be a clash of titans if both teams advance to the later rounds. Additionally, the No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia game promises to be a nail-biter, with Gonzaga’s tournament experience pitted against Georgia’s hunger for a win.
Thursday:
High Point vs Purdue -7.5 O/U 153.5 – Amica mutual Pavilion in Providence RI
- I see a lot of variance in this game. Purdue has the capability of blowing teams out, but they have had a terrible last month down the stretch.
- Highpoint has been red hot, but they haven’t played anyone with much of a pulse this year. I lean High Point, but the public is also on it.
- Total is a touch high.
- Lean Highpoint +7.5
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston -28.5 O/U 126.5 – Intrust bank Arena in Wichita KS
- Should be a blowout as Houston can name their margin and total of the points scored.
- Lean Houston TT over
McNeese vs Clemson -7.5 O/U 134.5 – Amica Mutual Pavilion Providence RI
- Clemson is the next highest seed after Duke in the ACC. They are a solid team, but nothing special.
- Both teams like to play slow with good defense. Clemson has a three point and mid range advantage over McNeese.
- Neither team rebounds well on defense. I can see some easy put backs.
- McNeese has the turnover advantage and they can get some steels against Clemson.
- McNeese played Alabama and only lost by 6. They lost to Miss State by 3. They beat a few good etams. They can hang.
- I like McNeese as a smaller play +7.5 for 1 star.
Georgia vs Gonzaga -6.5 O/U 151.5 – Intrust bank Arena in Wichita KS
- Kenpom really likes this Gonzaga team, but I cannot say the same.
- Inconsistency has been the mantra of both of these teams. Somehow, Gonzaga has been poor away from home this year losing to Kentucky, UCONN, UCLA, West Virginia and Oregon State. This isn’t your typical top 5 Zags team we remember from the past 10 years.
- Although Georgia has had their mid-season woes, this team at leat finished strong with big wins vs Florida, Texas and Vanderbilt.
- Georgia has a near proximity advantage ranking 24th near the rim on haslametrics to Gonzaga at 68th
- The schedule strength of Georgia is much bigger than Gonzaga as they played in the SEC. They are used to playing the best. I see a close game here.
- Would it shock you if one of these teams beat Houston?
- Georgia +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Wofford vs Tennessee -18.5 O/U 132.5 – Rupp Arena Lexington KY
- This is a home game for Tennessee less than 200 miles away. They pounded the children of the poor early in the non-conference. I do not see why it doesn’t happen again.
- Wofford might not score 50 points against this defense.
- Wofford lost to duke by over 50 points this year.
- Tennessee -18.5 – 2.5 stars
Utah State vs UCLA -5.5 O/U 144.5 – Rupp Arena Lexington KY
- This one is hard for me as I really do not like either team all that much.
- UCLA is defensive oriented yet their offensive plays at a medium place. The Aggies play quite fast, but falter when they play a decent defense.
- Both teams are terrible away from home. I will maybe look at the under or UCLA in a ML Parlay.
- Lean Under
Troy vs Kentucky +10.5 O/U 152.5 – Fiserv Forum Milwaukee WI
- Troy has some defense, but not nearly enough to keep up with Kentucky.
- I thought about betting the Trojans, but Lamont Butler will be back and heathier for the Cats.
- Kentucky ranks 20th in effective FG% while Troy ranks 222nd.
- It’s hard not to trust Lamont Butler in a tournament setting.
- Lean Kentucky -10.5
Xavier vs Illinois -3.5 O/U 160.5 –
- On Wednesday, Xavier was dead to rights until Texas puked all over themselves.
- Illinois is the more powerful team, but they will shoot a lot of threes and they have been inconsistent in that.
- Xavier has a three point matchup advantage over Illinois as the Illini can’t seem to guard it all that well. Illinois should be able to score inside quite easily as Xavier is the shorter team.
- Xaiver plays close games more often then not when they lose. I will wait it out some, but I like the Illini to win on the ML or a ML Parlay.
- Lean Illinois ML
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