We have a Wednesday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a small slate of games. In January and February last year we went 109-81-8 +25.79 Units. We’ve had a good run to start 2024 gaining just over 10 units on hoops. Overall record in CBB this year is 81-76 dropping .45 Units. Free picks record here at TheOddsbreakers.com sits at 5-1 on College Hoops this season. We have 5 CBB selections on the card tonight.
My free play today takes us to Greenville, NC for some AAC Action featuring the East Carolina Pirates (9-8 Overall, 2-2 AAC )hosting the North Texas Mean Green (10-5 Overall, 3-0 AAC). The line checks in with North Texas as a slight favorite at -3 and the over/under sits at 123.5.
The East Carolina Pirates scoring attack is led by a three headed monster of guard RJ Felton and Forwards Ezra Ausar and Brandon Johnson, all of whom average over 14 PPG. They come into this contest after a 75-64 loss at home to SMU on Saturday where they were held to 37.1% from the field and 11.8% from beyond the arc. They have yet to beat a team in the top 120 of Kempom or Haslametrics and have lost those games by an average of 11.8 points and their closest was by five points to Florida who has shown lately they are not a top SEC talent.
The Mean Green is led by sophomore shooting guard Jason Edwards who is averaging 16.9 PPG. North Texas has two starting guards on the injury bench in John Buggs III and Rubin who are both questionable to return tonight. If they do it is a bonus, but they haven’t missed a beat since they’ve been out winning their first three conference tilts by over 12 points. Four of their five losses are Quad 1, and of their ten wins only one was not by double digits
North Texas is 9-4 against the spread and East Carolina is 7-9. Both of these teams play similar styles. Only Towson plays at a slower pace than North Texas and East Carolina comes in as 317th in the country in AdjTempo. The difference in this one will be the execution in the half court game.
SMU’s top tier defense gave the Pirates fits on Saturday and I expect more of the same tonight. The Mean Green have a decided size advantage particularly at the guard spots. The Pirates will need to find a way to knock down some outside shots as getting to the rim should prove difficult. To that end however they are 302nd in the nation at making the triple while North Texas is 21st in the country in defending from distance. North Texas should also have an advantage on the offensive end coming in at 83rd in offensive efficiency according to Haslametrics where as East Carolina is at 193rd. Both teams should get plenty of second chance points as well with really good offensive rebounding percentages on both sides going up against some weak defensive rebounding stats. For me this is all about East Carolina struggling to score again as I expect North Texas to force them into many tough late shot clock attempts. North Texas will then find just enough offense to make this a cover. I’ve got this one pegged at 66-58.
Take North Texas, -3 for 1.5 Units
