After a tremendous and more shocking start to the season for Houston, they trembled back to earth winning only 5 of their last 18 games. A team that ranked in the top 10, even top 5 in many defensive categories, has struggled on the defensive end in 2024. Losing Dillion Brooks for almost two weeks played into the equation tremendously. The tenacity he brings on the other end sets the tone for the Rockets. When inserted back into the lineup 4 days ago in Boston, they had him on a pitch count playing just 25 minutes, but all seems back to normal now playing 31+ min vs Philly two days ago. Now, you’re thinking they gave up 269 points in those two affairs, but facing offenses like Philadelphia and juggernaut Boston would be difficult healthy or not. They now face an offense who has trouble shooting at a high percentage consistently, the New York Knicks. Whether Brunson is back or not tonight for the Knicks, I expect to see the Rocket defense we saw earlier in the season. Giving up less than 46% shooting, 34% from downtown, 24 assists per game and 87 field goal attempts.
Now let’s talk about those Knicks. They were winners in 6 of 7 going into Monday night where they blew a late lead versus the Magic, scoring only 16 4th quarter points, and I think that late offensive letdown will trickle into tonight. I know Brunson could be back to provide a spark after missing the last two games, but that also means he’s back on the defensive end as well. Look, the Knicks have gone under in 8 of 10 games, and 11 of their last 15. At MSG, it’s gone under 4 straight games and with all these ‘trends’ you have the new look NY Knicks. Since their massive trade on December 30th, the under has come in 7 of 8 games, with a 13.5-point differential. They have held opposing offenses to under 100 points in 4 of 7 and under 105 in 6 of 7. To say their defense has been on point is an understatement. They rank 4th in opponent FG% at 44%, 3rd in 3P% at 31%, and holding opponents to only 86 FGAs per game. Now they get to face a Rocket offense just shooting 45% from the field in their L5 and 28% from downtown.
Let’s back the under tonight with a unit upgrade.
Under 221 (-110) to win 1.5 units
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