The Military Bowl, Annapolis Maryland – Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech +5.5 O/U 53.5
Here is another weird game in the middle of 2 key numbers. Cincinnati had a fantastic year going 10-2 and deserved a good bowl game while Virginia tech was very disappointing team this year losing to teams like Old Dominion, Miami, and Boston College. They haven’t beaten any ranked teams but they did one thing that was great. They finished out their season beating Virginia and Marshall to continue their bowl streak of 26 consecutive appearances. This now the most in a row for current teams now that Florida State is out at 36 years. The Bearcats on the other hand hasn’t really played anybody with a pulse besides Temple and Central Florida losing to both teams. Well they barely beat Ohio so I give them that. The Bearcats did great things on defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play while averaging 6.1 on offense. Most of the offense is due to beast running back Michael Warren who had over 1100 yards this year. It was mostly Virginia Tech’s defense who failed them this year allowing 6.4 yards per play and 5.4 yards per rush. Now it didn’t look like this those last 2 games. Something clicked with this team so I really don’t want to take the favorite who should be able to run all over the Hokies laying 5.5 points. These schedules are much too different here and my lean is Va Tech and the under
Lean Virginia Tech +5.5 maybe a small over 52 play
The Redbox Bowl, Santa Clara California – Michigan State vs Oregon -2.5 O/U 48
Well this certainly is more of a home game for Oregon yet it is still a 560 mile drive for fans from Eugene. What can we say about this Michigan State team? Talk about wasting a great defense this year? Their D averaged 2.6 against the run which is top 2. 18 points allowed per gamewhich is top 14 and 4.6 yards per play which is top 12. Their pathetic offense only averaged 4.7 yards per play. Part of this terrible play was being without RB LJ Scott for a few games and also losing Felton Davis for the season in October. Their star cornerback Justin Layne will be sitting out this game for the NFL draft. Oregon on the other hand also had high expectations with new coach Mario Christibal but that fizzled out when they first blew that game against Stanford and then later losing to Arizona was unacceptable. At least Oregon with Justin Herbert at the helm has an offense that can move the ball averaging 6 yards per play. One thing I hate doing is betting against a seasoned coach like Mark Dantonio in bowl games. He is 6-4 ATS and knows how to stop teams dead in their tracks. Power ratings has this about a pickem but If I had to choose a side here I would lean Oregon with the points but the only play here for me would be under 48. I think Michigan State runs the ball all day and tries to control the Time of Possession.
Under 48 small
The Liberty Bowl, Memphis Tennessee – Missouri vs Oklahoma State +8 O/U 74.5
Well this total tells you a lot about this game. Oklahoma State saved my season win total under 7.5 when losing to TCU at the end of the season. More importantly, anybody that gives up 31 points to TCU should have to take a trip to the pit of misery. Missouri has been amazing since their Alabama game winning 5 out of 6. Pretty big wins there against Florida and Memphis and averaging 40 points per game during that stretch. Oklahoma State in my opinion had some big wins vs West Virginia and Texas but they seemed to catch teams at the right time this year. When they played anyone with a pulse of a defense they lost to K state by 19, Texas Tech by 24 and Iowa State at home by 6. If you plug their yards per play numbers it favors Oklahoma State but you can’t use that looking at these schedules. Missouri had to play Alabama, Georgia, Purdue, South Carolina and Kentucky while Oklahoma State had the typical big 12 schedule and Boise State who gave up some special teams touchdowns to them. If you go by most power ratings is has Missouri by 7 or 8 hence the line move but I am going by what Jeff Sagarin has from a recency perspective that puts much more weight on how you finished the season. If you look at that the Power rating shows Missouri winning this game by 18 points. This Oklahoma State team is fake news. What’s real news is that their star RB Justice Hill is not playing this bowl game while Drew Locke is for Missouri is. This high total says a lot to me. I am taking Missouri -8
Missouri -8
The Holiday Bowl, San Diego California – Northwestern vs Utah – +7.0 O/U 46
Both coaches Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Wittingham have fantastic bowl records ATS With Kyle at 8-3 ant Pat at 6-4 since 2005. Here is another game of some very solid teams. The strange thing about Northwestern is that they played great in the Big 10 West and terrible in the non-conference losing every game to Notre Dame, Akron and Duke oh and all those games were at home BTW. They give up .8 yards per play more on defense than they do on offense. They only beat Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 8. BUT, this is also the team that beat Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. They also almost beat Michigan and lost at the very end. Utah on the other hand did very well and won the Pac 12 South but they had a very mild Pac 12 schedule with non conference games vs NIU, BYU and Weber State. Utah’s QB Tyler Hundley should finally be back for this game but he may be rusty. Northwestern will be without LB Nate hall and DT Jordan Thompson due to surgeries. If it wasn’t for these injuries I would play NU at +7 seeing that they tend to keep most games close but I am going to wait and see where this line goes.
Lean NU +7
The Taxslayer Bowl, Jacksonville Florida – Texas A&M vs NC State +7 O/U 58.5
These Teams seem pretty similar here to me. Both teams won their last 3 games. Both teams like to throw the ball. Both teams around 6.2 yards per play. NC State gives up 5.7 yards per play and Texas A&M gives up 5.9 but the Aggies Run the ball better at 4.9 yards per rush to the Wolfpack’s 3.9. Jimbo Fisher is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Dave Doeren is 4-1 so no advantage there. Texas A & M had a way harder schedule then NC State ranking 4th on Sagarin to NC State’s 69. My algorithm has this game closer to a pickem even after adjusting for strength of schedule. Texas A&M lacks some important efficiencies like a lower 3rd down and field goal percentage. NC State is better on 3rd down at 50% to the Aggie’s 40%. NC State is 87% at field goal percentage to A&M’s 70%. I have Texas A&M winning 29.5-28.5
NC State +7 small
The Sun Bowl, El Paso Texas – Pittsburgh vs Stanford -5.5 O/U 52
Let’s just start out by saying that Stanford’s David Shaw is 5-2 ATS in bowl games while Pittsburgh’s Pat Narduzzi is 0-2. Bryce Love is sitting out this bowl game but I don’t think it affected the spread much seeing that he was banged up all year. The huge narrative of the Pac-12 has been to fade them because of how bad they have been in bowl games and very disrespected not only in the media but also the betting Market. This line opened up around a 7 and sharp money came in on Pittsburgh. Now in my opinion, I do not think that the ACC was all that either so I do not really trust all this Pitt money. What I can trust is that Pittsburgh is a great running team at 5.6 yards per carry and runs 65% of the time. I also like how Pitt ran through some very good teams mid season. Both these teams have weak defenses giving up about 5.8 yards per play. If Stanford can’t stop the run they could lose this game outright. Both teams play top 10 slowest in the nation so I can’t take the over even though these defenses are bad. I don’t love this game but I lean Pittsburgh plus the points.
Lean Pitt +5.5
