Dec. 17 – Bahamas Bowl, Nassau, Bahamas: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo -10 O/U 52, ESPN, noon
Motivation: Middle Tennessee – Medium – They are happy to make a bowl but also pretty happy to Party in the Bahamas. Toledo – Medium – Same deal here. Great destination for kids from Ohio and they should have some fun here as well as put forth a decent effort.
Injury/Hold outs: None really
SOS: Both schedules equal with Toledo being 128th on Sagarin To MTSU at 126th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee, 2-6 & Jason Candle, Toledo, 1-3
Metrics: My power ratings have Toledo -7.5 but my number is around -10 with the metrics. Toledo has a +1.7 net yard per play advantage. Rushing advantage for Toledo who ranks 3rd in rush EPA while Middle Tennessee ranks 66th in opponent rush EPA.
Decision: Lean Toledo -10 – I am concerned that their defense could allow a back door and my power ratings do not agree here.
Dec. 17 – Cure Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois +10 O/U 63.5, ESPN2, 6 p.m.
Motivation: Northern Illinois – Medium Low – This team won the Mac Championship and celebrating while partying in Orlando could be the better option. Coastal Carolina – Medium – Coastal went through a lot of adversity when they lost QB Grayson McCall for a few weeks but he is back and they will want to win. They did have higher hopes earlier in the season.
Injury/Hold outs: Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall could hold out for the NFL.
SOS: Coastal 148th on Sagarin and NIU is 94th
Coach Bowl ATS: Thomas Hammock is N/A and Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina, 0-1
Metrics: My power number is Coastal -10.75. NIU is 128th in opponent Rush EPA while Coastal Carolina is 12th in rush EPA. Massive discrepancy. Coastal at 5.7 yards per rush and NIU gives that up. Coastal has a 3.2 Net yard per play advantage as well. Coastal is also number 1 in offensive success rate to NIU at 124th in defensive success rate.
Decision: Strong lean to Coastal Carolina -10, If Grayson plays, I might have to play Coastal.
Dec. 18 – Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, Fla.: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky +3 O/U 67, ESPN, 11 a.m.
Motivation: Appalachian State – Medium High – They lost the conference championship but they will want to end the season on a good note. Western Kentucky – Medium – Great season for the Hilltoppers but they lost their championship game to UTSA. They also go here to play FAU sometimes during the season and some of the player were here last year for their conference game.
Injury/Hold outs: Quarterback Bailey Zappe — who could break Joe Burrow’s single-season touchdown record — looks like he will play as of this moment. Appalachian State wide receiver Corey Sutton will miss the game after undergoing surgery.
SOS: 103rd for Appalachian State and 109th for Western Kentucky.
Coach Bowl ATS: Shawn Clark, Appalachian State, 1-1 andTyson Helton, Western Kentucky, 0-1-1
Metrics: Western Kentucky at 1.6 yards per play to Appalachian State at 1.24. My power number is App State -4 but there is familiarity with the location field for Western Kentucky. App State might have some success running the ball at 4.66 yards per rush to Western allowing 4. The Hill Toppers have the QB advantage and rank 3rd in offensive passing success rate while App State ranks 23rd on defense.
Decision: I think the spread is correct but the total is low and I like the over. Western Kentucky ranks 5th in pace of play and should control the pace if winning. Western Kentucky averages 43 points per game to Appalachian State averaging 34.
Over 67 – 3 stars
Dec. 18 – New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, N.M.: Fresno State vs. Texas-El Paso +11.5 O/U 50, ESPN, 2:15 p.m.
Motivation: Fresno State – Medium Low – Fresno State had higher hopes but they will be down here on business. Not a great destination for either team. UTEP – Medium Low – UTEP is probably very happy to FINALLY get a bowl game yet really bummed out that they have to go to Albuquerque which is the closest main city to them anyways. Just getting to a bowl was the prize.
Injury/Hold outs: Fresno State will not have the services of head coach Kalen DeBoer, who recently took the same job at Washington. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will also join DeBoer in Seattle. The assistants will step it up to call plays.
SOS: Fresno at 84 with UTEP at 136
Coach Bowl ATS: N/A
Metrics: Fresno State 25th in offensive success rate while UTEP is 125th on defense. Fresno has a .4 net yard per play advantage and when we saw UTEP step up in competition vs Boise State, it wasn’t pretty. My power number is a massive -17.25 but Fresno being without their coach hurts it.
Decision: Fresno has a .4 net yard per play advantage in a much harder conference and I think that they were actually the best team but didn’t get to play in the title game. I think the kids will still be motivated to play and should win even without their coaches. Lean Fresno -11.5
Dec. 18 – Independence Bowl, Shreveport, La.: Brigham Young vs. Alabama-Birmingham +6.5 O/U 55, ABC, 3:30 p.m.
Motivation: BYU – Medium Low – I can almost guarantee you that BYU had much higher hopes in their bowl asperations when they beat teams like ASU, UTAH and USC. UAB – Medium High – UAB had higher hopes as well but getting to play BYU is a huge game for these kids.
Injury/Hold outs: UAB could be without leading rusher DeWayne McBride, who suffered an injury late in the season. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry and rushed for just under 1,200 yards.
SOS: 65th for BYU and 114th for UAB
Coach Bowl ATS: Kalani Sitake, BYU, 2-2 & Bill Clark, UAB, 2-1
Metrics: My power number is right on the nose here at -6.5 but what I will say is that Frank Clark is the better coach. BYU has the better offense ranking 11th in success rate to UAB’s 63rd, but UAB has the better defense ranking 20th in success rate to BYU’s 101st. All the motivation is to UAB in this game in my opinion and I will lean them and hope for a 7.5 or better.
Decision: Wait for a better number
Dec. 18 – LendingTree Bowl, Mobile, Ala.: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty -9 O/U 58.5, ESPN, 5:45 p.m.
Motivation: Eastern Michigan – Medium Low – This team is lucky to get a bowl game and Mobile is a nice play to play by the Ocean. The kids will use this as a vacation. Liberty – Medium – This team seemed to lose Motivation at the end of the season some but they will probably get up for this game.
Injury/Hold outs: None but QB Malik Willis, who some project as a first-round draft pick, should be playing for the Flames.
SOS: Eastern Michigan is 118th and Liberty is 108th
Coach Bowl ATS: Hugh Freeze, Liberty, 4-1 and Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan, 3-0
Metrics: Eastern Michigan and Liberty were both up and down all season. Eastern Michigan is a bad -.6 Yards per play to Liberty’s +1.4. The Eagles are also a bad 83rd in EPA margin to Liberty’s 34th.
Decision: It’s too bad that both of these coaches are great in bowl ATS and have to face each other. I have Liberty by 13.5 points here on my power ratings so I might be a player here for something small.
Liberty -9 – 1.5 stars
Dec. 18 – LA Bowl, Los Angeles CA: Oregon State vs. Utah State +7.5 O/U 66.5, ABC, 7:30 p.m.
Motivation: Oregon State – Medium – This team almost made the Pac 12 title game but lost to rival Oregon. Nice for the kids to go to LA and they will have some fun yet they should want to win here as well. Utah State – Medium Low – Utah State won the Mountain West Championship with ease but they also were just in this area for that game. I think they treat this as a vacation more than business trip.
Injuries/Hold outs: Oregon State linebacker Avery Roberts, who led the Pac-12 in tackles, will miss the LA Bowl due to surgery. The Beavers’ second-leading receiver, Tre’Shaun Harrison, will miss the first half after getting ejected for a fight against Oregon.
SOS: Oregon State’s 24nd and Utah State’s is 83rd
Coach Bowl ATS: Johnathan Smith , Oregon State N/A and Blake Anderson, Utah State, 2-4
Metrics: Utah State is 41 in EPA Margin while Oregon State is 36. Oregon State should be able to pound the ball on the ground ranking 8th at 5.4 yards per rush to Utah State’s defense ranking 88th at 4.4. I will say that Utah State can get to the quarterback and has a pretty good defensive line ranking 4th in average line yards. The rest is a wash. My power rating is Oregon State -10.75 but I don’t like them losing their best tackler and a WR.
Decision: Lean to Oregon State but this spread could go down.
Dec. 18 – New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Marshall +5 O/U 55.5 , ESPN, 9:15 p.m.
Motivation: Louisiana – Medium – I think that this team wanted a better bowl game themselves, but it is at least a partial home game for their families only having to drive 135 miles. Marshall – Medium High – Marshall had some back luck in their final game vs Western Kentucky with their quarterback going out but they should be motivated here to make a statement.
Injuries/Hold outs: Louisiana Football coach Billy Napier is off to Florida and there will only be a few guys left to help coach this team. New head coach Michael Desormeaux will take over after being promoted from the tight ends coach and co-defensive coordinator and he should have some guys there to help. Louisiana running back Chris Smith, the team’s leading rusher, is also questionable for Saturday’s game. In regards to Marshall, quarterback Grant Wells will play.
SOS: 119th for Louisiana and 117th for Marshall
Coach Bowl ATS: Louisiana’s Michael Desormeaux N/A and Marshall’s Charles Huff N/A
Metrics: Marshall actually has a yards per play advantage here of about .5 but they are definitely in the easier conference. Lousiana ranks 22nd in EPA margin while Marshall ranks 64th. This means that Louisiana is the better team in the plus side of the field and on getting first downs. This is important when looking at who can get points on the board. Louisiana also ranks 13th in turnover margin to Marshal’s 94th.
Decision: Even with Coach Napier leaving, I think that Louisiana gets another big win here close to home. Play the -5
Louisiana -5 – 2.5 stars
