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Chiefs -3 (-115), 2.3 units: I know I know – here we go again! The Chiefs are ascending at just the right time, aren’t they? We’re approaching Week 15, only 4 weeks remain in the regular season, and Kansas City is predictably in full control of their destiny in the AFC West. While a first round bye might be out of range (the Pats have a favorable schedule and they’re 9-4), this is a dangerous team headed towards January with a defense that’s playing exceptional right now. Over the last 6 weeks and 6 straight wins, the KC defense has allowed less than 11 ppg to their opponents. In the modern NFL, with the kind of scoring we see and with the kind of scoring the Chiefs often force teams to produce, that’s a shocking statistic. This is a Kansas City team who couldn’t get out of their own way in the first half of the season. Turnovers by Patrick Mahomes and a defense that would bend too far led to the former AFC Champions searching for answers before November. A win against the Giants on November 1 (go figure) shifted their season. Since then, the Chiefs have out-scored their opponents to 163-65; that’s an average margin of victory of 27.1 ppg during that span. That’s incredible and we can’t be afraid to say it: the Chiefs are BACK.
The LA Chargers beat the Chiefs earlier this year in a game where Kansas City turned the ball over 4 times. LAC, to their credit, did not make the same mistakes. Herbert played well, throwing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns, and they committed no turnovers. The Chiefs gained more total yards (437 to 352), held the ball longer (32:31 to 27:29), and significantly out-gained LAC on the ground (186 to 77 rush yards). Mahomes uncharacteristically threw 2 INTs. Who thinks this game will play out the same way Thursday night? Not I.
This is a great spot for Kansas City. It’s a redemption game, they’re rolling with 6 straight wins, Mahomes isn’t turning the ball over, and over the past month+ their defense looks like the best unit in the league. One area to watch for: The KC offense has the best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL (52.2%). Guess who has the worst defense on 3rd downs? The LA Chargers (they allow opponents to convert 3rd downs 49% of the time). I think the dominance for KC continues tonight in a revenge game at Sofi Stadium – take the Chiefs.
