College Football Bowls December 30th – December 31st – Sports Betting – College Football

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A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl:  Iowa vs. Missouri -3 O/U 40
Location:  Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Time:  2:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Iowa’s Motivation:   High – Kirk Ferentz is 12-7-1 ATS in bowl games.

Missouri’s Motivation:  High – Eliah Drinkwitz is 3-0 in bowl games.

Home:  None, Missouri is closer but Iowa fans travel well.

Key Guys Missing:

Missouri Transfer Portal

  • WR Mekhi Miller (337 snaps)

Missouri Opt-Outs

  • WR Luther Burden
  • RT Armand Membou
  • LB Chuck Hicks (270 snaps)

Missouri Potential Opt-Outs

  • WR Theo Wease (should play)

Missouri Injuries

  • C Connor Tollison is out for the year after missing the past three games.
  • WR Mookie Cooper is also out.
  • TE Brett Norfleet is having surgery and will miss the bowl game.

Iowa Transfer Portal

  • QB Cade McNamara
  • QB Marco Lainez

Iowa Opt-Outs

  • Starting CB Jermari Harris
  • Starting RB Kaleb Johnson

Ferentz didn’t expect any other opt-outs.

Iowa injuries:

  • Starting RT Gennings Dunker missed the final two games.
  • DE Brian Allen missed the finale.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz says Brendan Sullivan is healthy now and will start in the bowl. Wide receiver Reece Vander Zee should also return from inury.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Missouri: Eliah Drinkwitz, 3-0
  • Iowa: Kirk Ferentz, 12-7-1

Net YPP:  Iowa +.65

Basic stats:

Key Stats:  Both teams have a pretty equal strength of schedule.  Both teams had some quarterback woes.   I honestly do not see where Missouri will have many advantages.  Iowa is the better running team and probably the better passing team now that Sullivan is back.  I think that the wrong team is favored.   

Verdict:  Iowa has Brendan Sullivan coming back who is better than Cade McNamara who is transferring.  He got injured during the UCLA game, but played quite well in the previous two games.   Take Iowa and the over being that Brady Cook should be playing for Missouri.  Iowa is 9-3 to the over this year.

Play – Iowa +3 – 2.5 stars
Iowa/Missouri over 40 – 1 star


Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl:  Alabama vs. Michigan  +13.5 O/U 43.5
Location:  Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ESPN

Alabama’s Motivation:  High – Some folks might not remember that this is a huge revenge spot from last year’s playoffs.

Michigan’s Motivation:  Medium – Michigan beat Ohio State, what do they care about beating Alabama again?   Maybe they show up.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Michigan TE coach Steve Casula will serve as interim OC in place of the let go Kirk Campbell.

Alabama Transfer Portal

  • Starting CB DeVonta Smith
  • RB Justice Haynes (305 snaps)
  • WR Kendrick Law (252 snaps)
  • WR Kobe Prentice (129 snaps)
  • WR Emmanuel Henderson (146 snaps)
  • WR Caleb Odom (145 snaps)

While the top two are available in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, Alabama is very thin at wide receiver due to injuries and transfers.

Alabama Injuries:

  • S Malachi Moore (out with injury)
  • LB Deontae Lawson (out with injury)
  • S Keon Sabb (out with injury)

Head coach Kalen DeBoer said he would let players like Milroe and Booker make their announcements on their own but feels good about the situation.

Update: It looks as if DeBoer doesn’t expect any opt-outs, but that could change.

Michigan Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR Tyler Morris
  • C Dominick Giudice (317 snaps)
  • OT Andrew Gentry (115 snaps)
  • Backup QB Alex Orji

Michigan Opt-Outs

  • DT Mason Graham
  • DE Josiah Stewart
  • TE Colston Loveland
  • RB Donovan Edwards
  • CB Will Johnson

Michigan Potential Opt-Outs

  • RB Kalel Mullings
  • DT Kenneth Grant
  • OLB Derrick Moore
  • LB Jaishawn Barham (leaning toward returning in 2025)
  • Star CB Will Johnson has been out with an injury and won’t play in the bowl.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • Alabama: Kalen DeBoer, 2-1
  • Michigan:  Sherrone Moore, 0-0

Net YPP:  Alabama +1.71

Basic Stats:  

Key Stats:  Alabama in theory should have a large advantage passing the ball ranking 11th in passing play success rate to Michigan’s defense that allows lots of yards through the air ranking 80th in defensive pass EPA.   I will say that Michigan has gotten better throughout the season, but their Ohio State victory may have been enough for them.   

Verdict:   I am quite surprised not to see more transfers out of Alabama.   This is a revenge spot for them and I think that they just might dominate this game being that their best two receivers are still hanging in there.

Play:  Alabama -13.5

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl:  Louisville vs. Washington +2.5 O/U 49
Location:  Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Network:  CBS

Louisville’s Motivation:  Medium – Bad location so business trip.

Washington’s Motivation:  Medium – Bad location.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Washington head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anybody to sit out. Meanwhile, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm said he wasn’t sure.

Louisville Transfer Portal

  • S/LB Benjamin Perry (307 snaps)
  • DT Jared Dawson (294 snaps)
  • TE Jamari Johnson (176 snaps)
  • RB Don Chaney (163 snaps)

Louisville Opt-Outs

  • QB Tyler Shough
  • WR Ja’Corey Brooks
  • WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce V
  • DE Ashton Gillotte
  • CB Quincy Riley

Senior Harrison Bailey is listed as the starting quarterback. WR Caulin Lacy is listed on the bowl depth chart after sitting out the remainder of the regular season after four games to preserve his redshirt status.

Washington Transfer Portal

  • Starting LT Kahlee Tafai (committed to Minnesota)
  • Starting LG Gaard Memmelaar
  • LB Khmori House (317 snaps; committed to Minnesota)
  • CB Elijah Jackson (162 snaps)
  • DE Lance Holtzclaw (114 snaps)
  • RB Cam Davis (158 snaps; signed with Minnesota)
  • P Jack McCallister

Washington Potential Opt-Outs:

  • DE Zach Durfee, DL Jayvon Parker and DL Russell Davis won’t play in the bowl game after sustaining injuries.

QB Will Rogers was benched for the finale, and head coach Jedd Fisch stated Demond Williams will start in the bowl.  Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick will stay with the team before leaving for UNC.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Louisville: Jeff Brohm, 4-3
  • Washington: Jedd Fisch, 1-1

Net YPP:  Louisville +1.63

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  None more key than both teams without their starting quarterbacks.  Two of the three top WRs from Louisville are also opting out.  Not that Washington wasn’t ransacked in the portal by the Minnesota Gophers.   In theory, Louisville should be able to run the ball ranking 38th in rush EPA to Washington ranking 80th in opponent yards per rush.  

Verdict:  Man this is a hard handicap right now.   Washington quarterback Demond Williams is the big wild card here.   I think Louisville wins, but I will wait to bet it if I do not decide to go for a middle.  

Play:  Learn Louisville ML -130

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl:  South Carolina vs. Illinois +10 O/U 49.5
Location:  Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time:  3 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC

South Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – Business and pleasure.   Why not?

Illinois’s Motivation:  Medium – Knowing Brett Bielema, it is more pleasure than business.

Home:  Small 1 point advantage for South Carolina playing 425 miles away.

Key Guys Missing:  

Illinois Transfer Portal

  • TE Henry Boyer (135 snaps; signed with Kentucky)
  • WR Kenari Wilcher (55 snaps; also returned kicks). Wilcher stated he still would play in bowl.
  • Backup QB Donovan Leary

Illinois Opt-Outs

  • WR Pat Bryant

Head coach Bret Bielema said he expects no other opt-outs. DE Seth Coleman did miss the finale, and starting LB Dylan Rosiek missed the final three games. Starting CB Kalen Patterson also missed the finale.

South Carolina Transfer Portal

  • Backup QB Robby Ashford (staying with team for bowl)

South Carolina Opt-Outs

  • DE Kyle Kennard

Head coach Shane Beamer said he does not believe Kennard will play in the Citrus Bowl.

South Carolina Potential Opt-Outs

  • S Nick Emmanwori (says he’ll play)
  • RB Raheim Sanders (declared for NFL Draft; not sure on status)
  • DT TJ Sanders
  • DT Tonka Hemingway
  • LB Demetrius Knight (will play)
  • WR Gage Larvadain

Shane Beamer said he doesn’t expect anybody to miss the bowl due to injury.

Bowl Coach ATS:

  • South Carolina: Shane Beamer, 1-1
  • Illinois: Bret Bielema, 5-5

Net YPP:  South Carolina +.82

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  The biggest mismatch in this game is South Carolina’s defensive line ranking 7th in defensive havoc against Illinois offensive line ranking 116th in havoc.  Illinois has a poor defensive front seven.   Their offense will have to be powerful to be in this game.   Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a dual threat.

Verdict:  It’s really nice to see that both of these teams are keeping most of their guys in this game.   South Carolina will be a team that many will be on next year to win the SEC.   The line is probably correct at 9, but I would lean SC if they keep their defensive line in tact.

Play:  Lean South Carolina -9

Kinder’s Texas Bowl:  Baylor vs. LSU -3.5 O/U 59.5
Location:  NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Baylor’s Motivation:  High – Aranda would love to beat a SEC team.

LSU’s Motivation:  Medium – Brian Kelly only 6-10 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  Both are under 300 miles away from NRG Stadium, so no home field advantage.

Key Guys Missing:

Baylor Transfer Portal

  • S Corey Gordon (376 snaps)
  • DE Trey Wilson (228 snaps; committed to SMU)
  • OL Alvin Ebosele (176 snaps)
  • DL Kaian Roberts Day (91 snaps)
  • Backup QB Dequan Finn

LSU Transfer Portal

  • Starting WR CJ Daniels (committed to Miami)
  • Starting S Sage Ryan (committed to Ole Miss)
  • TE Ka’Morreun Pimpton (141 snaps)
  • DL Jay’viar Suggs (133 snaps)
  • WR Shelton Sampson (104 snaps)
  • CB JK Johnson (113 snaps; last played Week 5)
  • OLB Da’Shawn Womack (103 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
  • S Jordan Allen (111 snaps)

LSU Opt-Outs

  • LT Will Campbell
  • OT Emery Jones
  • TE Mason Taylor
  • WR Kyren Lacy

LSU has now seen both of its starting offensive tackles and its tight end declare early for the NFL Draft. Trey’Dez Green will be the only scholarship tight end available. They could kick Miles Frazier out to tackle.

LSU Potential Opt-Outs

  • OG Garrett Dellinger (been injured, but cleared to play)
  • LB Greg Penn (still undecided; been playing with a broken rib)
  • S Major Burns
  • OG Miles Frazier (looks like he’ll play and could slide out to tackle)
  • DE Sai’vion Jones

It looks like QB Garrett Nussmeier will play since he’s returning next season.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Baylor: Dave Aranada, 1-1
  • LSU: Brian Kelly, 6-10

Net YPP:  Baylor +.52

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Look at all of the LSU opt outs and transfers.   Even if these teams were equal, nobody is talking about Sawyer Robertson’s stats of 8.3 yards per attempt, 26 TDs and only 7 interceptions.   The LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looking to play is the only thing that is keeping this line down.   

Verdict:   Baylor is the best team that nobody is talking about.   Since cleaning up their turnovers, they have blown away their competition.  

Play:  Baylor -3.5

References:

https://www.si.com/betting/2024-bowl-season-every-college-football-head-coach-s-against-the-spread-record-in-bowl-games

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker


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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.

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