A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
Saturday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. North Carolina -2.5 O/U 52.5
Location: Fenway Park (Boston)
Time: 11 a.m.
TV Network: ESPN
UCONN’s Motivation: High – All business getting to beat a power 5 team.
North Carolina’s Motivation: Low – Lots of distractions with Bill Belichick and the head coach hiring.
Home: UCONN gets 3 points with only 131 miles to Boston.
Key Guys Missing:
UNC fired head coach Mack Brown, who will not be with the team for the Fenway Bowl. TE coach Freddie Kitchens will serve as the interim head coach.
UNC Transfer Portal
- Starting LB Amare Campbell
- Starting LT Harold Sampson (signed with Texas Tech)
- DT Travis Shaw (301 snaps)
- Backup QB Conner Harrell
UNC Opt-Outs
- RB Omarion Hampton (declared for NFL Draft)
- DE Kaimon Rucker (declared for NFL Draft)
- DT Jahvaree Ritzie (declared for NFL Draft)
UNC Injuries:
- TE Bryson Nesbit is out for the year.
UConn Transfer Portal
- Starting CB Malcolm Bell
- Starting WR Skyler Bell
- RB Durrell Robinson (295 snaps; signed with Auburn)
- DE Pryce Yates (304 snaps)
Potential UConn Opt-Outs
- RT Chase Lundt
- LT Valentin Senn
- CB Jordan Wright got banged up in the finale.
- DT Dal’mont Gourdine didn’t play in the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- UConn: Jim Mora, 2-3
- UNC: Freddie Kitchens, 0-0
Net YPP: UCONN +.28
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The strength of schedule difference here is big where UCONN’s ranks 129 and UNC’s ranks 67th. This one is tough as I wonder if some of the North Carolina guys will try to impress coach Belichick, or will the distraction just be too big? In normal circumstances, I would have North Carolina a 10 point favorite here. The total though seems a bit low as both teams rank in the 30s in tempo.
Verdict: Over 52.5
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska -4 O/U 45.5
Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Time: Noon
TV Network: ABC
Boston College’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play a big 10 team, yet not a great one.
Nebraska’s Motivation: High – When was the last time that the corn heads made a bowl game?
Home: Boston College gets 1 point being only 200 miles away but Nebraska has been dying to get in a bowl game.
Key Guys Missing:
Dana Holgorsen took over as Nebraska’s OC late in the year and recently signed a longer-term deal. DC Tony White left for the same job at FSU, so DB coach John Butler will coach the defense in the bowl.
Boston College Transfer Portal
- WR Jerand Bradley (170 snaps)
- CB Ryan Turner (168 snaps)
- QB Thomas Castellanos (lost job late in season; signed with FSU)
Boston College Opt-Outs
- RT Ozzy Trapilo
- DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (I’d guess he sits)
Boston College Injuries
- CB Amari Jackson is out for the year (last played Week 6)
- LB Owen McGowan is out for the year (last played Week 11).
- LB Kam Arnold hasn’t played since Week 8.
Nebraska Transfer Portal
- Starting LB Mikai Gbayor (signed with Missouri)
- Starting DE Jimari Butler (signed with LSU)
- Starting TE Nate Boerkircher (363 snaps)
- RB Dante Dowdell (273 snaps)
- LB Stefon Thompson (175 snaps; signed with FSU)
- OLB Princewill Umanmielen (203 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
- OLB James Williams (188 snaps)
Nebraska Opt-Outs
- Starting WR Isaiah Neyor
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Nebraska: Matt Rhule, 1-2
- Boston College: Bill O’Brien, 0-0
Net YPP: Boston College +.22
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Boston College doesn’t throw the ball much ranking 124th in pass attempts. Nebraska is very strong against the run ranking 19th in opponent rush EPA. They should be able to top Boston College.
Verdict: I might play Nebraska here but I have to make sure who is all opting out.
Play: Lean Nebraska -4 but wait to make sure.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana vs. TCU -11.5 O/U 58
Location: University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Time: 2:15 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Louisiana’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play a big 12 school.
TCU’s Motivation: Medium Low – Poor destination for this team. This place make’s the city of Milwaukee look like Vegas.
Home: None, I can’t imagine either school wants to travel to Albuquerque
Key Guys Missing:
According to Coach Des, original quarterback Ben Wooldridge is “probable” to return and play in the bowl game this Saturday against TCU.
WR Robert Williams (379 snaps) was also carted off in the conference championship game.
Starting S Tyree Skipper — the team’s best defender — missed the last four games with an injury.
Louisiana Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Harvey Broussard (signed with Houston)
- Starting TE Terrence Carter (signed with Texas Tech)
- Starting LB Carmycah Glass
- RB Dre’lyn Washington (207 snaps)
TCU Transfer Portal
- RB Cam Cook (373 snaps)
- Starting C James Brockermeyer
TCU Opt-Outs
- WR Jack Bech
- WR Savion Williams
Both are dealing with injuries and won’t play.
Bech suffered an MCL injury in the finale and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks, but Dykes said there’s a chance he plays.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- TCU: Sonny Dykes, 3-3
- Louisiana: Michael Desormeaux, 2-1
Net YPP: Louisiana +.11
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: TCU clearly had the harder strength of schedule, but this handicap has to do with Cajun quarterback Ben Woolridge’s availability. If he can go, then this spread should be around -9.5. If not, then -11.5 is fair. Both teams stink against the run. Gonna make sure everyone is good to go.
Verdict: Wait and see.
Play: Lean Louisiana +11.5
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami -3.5 O/U 56
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
Iowa State’s Motivation: Medium Low – They lost their shot at the playoffs, but at least get to play Miami. Matt Campell is only 3-6 ATS in bowl games.
Miami’s Motivation: Low – Miami was a top 4 seed a few weeks ago! At least Cam Ward still might play. Mario Cristobal is 2-5-1 ATS in bowls.
Home: Miami get’s 2 points for being only 234 miles away and in the same state.
Key Guys Missing:
Iowa State Transfer Portal
- DE Kenard Snyder (123 snaps)
- DE Trent Jones (101 snaps)
- Starting DE Tyler Onyedim
Iowa State Injuries:
- LB Caleb Bacon is not expected to be back from injury.
- RB Jaylon Jackson (232 snaps) is currently suspended and his status for the bowl is uncertain.
Miami Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Isaiah Horton (likely headed to Alabama)
- RB Ajay Allen (51 snaps)
Miami Potential Opt-Outs
- QB Cam Ward
- TE Elijah Arroyo
- OT Jalen Rivers
- WR Xavier Restrepo (says he’s not sure)
Cam Ward stated he will play, but that obviously could change for the potential top-five NFL Draft pick.
CB Jadais Richard hasn’t played since Week 10, and CB Dyoni Hill hasn’t since Week 11. DE Elijah Alston did return for the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Iowa State: Matt Campbell, 3-6
- Miami (Florida): Mario Cristobal, 2-5-1
Net YPP: Miami +2.69
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Miami won’t have a problem moving the ball, the question is if they can stop Iowa State. I think that they can as the Clones only rank 68th in offensive EPA and 93rd in offensive success rate. This could get ugly like what ASU did to them.
Verdict: Miami is the play at -6 or better as long as most are playing. Cam Ward must start so wait.
Play: Miami -3.5 but wait or Miami 1st half ML
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State +3 O/U 40.5
Location: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Time: 4:30 p.m.
TV Network: CW Network
Miami OH’s Motivation: Medium Low – They almost won the Mac, yet still a weather upgrade over Ohio. Chuck Martin 5-0 ATS in bowls though.
Colorado State’s Motivation: Medium Low – This bowl feels like a punishment. Playing in Tombstone would be better next to big nose Kate’s bar, but Jay Norvell is 3-0 ATS in bowl games.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Miami (OH) Transfer Portal
- Starting LT Will Jados (signed with Texas Tech)
- Starting WR Reggie Virgil (signed with Texas Tech)
- Starting WR Javon Tracy (signed with Minnesota)
- Top CB Raion Strader (committed to Auburn)
- CB William Hardrick (258 snaps; started at end of year)
Miami (OH) Potential Opt-Outs
- WR Cade McDonald
- RT Reid Holskey
- RB Dylan Downing (194 snaps) didn’t play in the MAC Championship game.
Colorado State Transfer Portal
- Starting LB Buom Jock
- Starting DE Mukendi Wa-Kalonji
- Starting DE Nuer Gatkuoth
- Starting WR Caleb Goodie (signed with Cincinnati)
- CB Mychal Yharbrough is out for the year (last played week 8).
Colorado State Injuries
- Stud WR Tory Horton is out for the year.
- Starting DT Cam Bariteau missed finale.
- WR Caleb Goodie missed the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Colorado State: Jay Norvell, 3-0
- Miami (Ohio): Chuck Martin, 5-0
Net YPP: Miami +1.16
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Neither offense is good. Colorado State’s ranks 86th in EPA to Miami who ranks 96th. Miami does have the better defense.
Verdict: Both teams lost some key guys, yet Colorado State is definitely the more fraudulent team here. Miami did lose some offense to transfers. The under was a sharp play. I might jump in later.
Play: Lean under 40.5 points
Go Bowling Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. NC State -6 O/U 58.5
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
Time: 5:45 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
East Carolina’s Motivation: Medium High – Why not beat a power 4 school?
NC State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not a great opponent, and not a great destination. Maybe they try some though.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
NC State lost longtime DC Tony Gibson to Marshall.
ECU interim head coach Blake Harrell, who took over midseason, has recently been named full-time head coach.
East Carolina Transfer Portal
- Starting WR Chase Sowell (signed with Iowa State)
- Starting CB Isaiah Brown-Murray (signed with VT)
- Starting LB Zakye Barker
- DL CJ Mims (339 snaps; signed with UNC)
East Carolina Potential Opt-Outs
- WR Winston Wright (declared for NFL draft; likely out)
NC State Transfer Portal
- Starting WR KC Concepcion
- WR Jalen Coit (53 snaps; also punt returner)
NC State Injuries
- LB Caden Fordham is out for the year after last playing in Week 6.
- CB Corey Coley Jr. hasn’t played since Week 6.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- North Carolina State: Dave Doeren, 5-4
- East Carolina: Blake Harrell (was interim now full time), 0-0
Net YPP: East Carolina +.87
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the fact that East Carolina’s schedule ranks 115th to NC State’s tat ranks 65th. In saying that, the turnovers that these teams commit is quite significant as the Pirates are -7 and the Wolfpack is -4 in turnover margin. This adds some variance to the handicap.
Verdict: I think that NC State has more to lose here. The Pirates got their coach hired which maybe enough. I might play NC State but I will wait until it gets closer.
Play: Lean NC State -6
Valero Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. Colorado -4 O/U 55
Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
BYU’s Motivation: Medium – They blew their playoff chances.
Colorado’s Motivation: High – Deion has his kids excited for the first bowl game in years.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Colorado Transfer Portal
- Starting LB Nikhai Hill-Green (signed with Alabama)
- DE Dayon Hayes (163 snaps; signed with Texas A&M. Hayes has been out for a while with an injury, but hinted he’d return to play in the bowl before transferring.
Colorado Potential Opt-Outs
- None
Head coach Deion Sanders has stated he expects everybody on Colorado to play, but that could change.
Colorado Injuries
- CB Preston Hodge missed the final three games with an injury.
- Starting DL Amari McNeil missed the finale.
- Starting RT Phillip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave missed the finale.
- WR Jimmy Horn missed the final few games.
BYU Transfer Portal
- Starting S Crew Wakley
- LB Aisea Moa (142 snaps)
- S Micah Harper (104 snaps)
- WR Kody Epps (135 snaps; hurt at end of year)
BYU Injuries
- Starting LB Harrison Taggart missed the finale, but is on bowl depth chart. It looks like the BYU defense will have everybody available except for Wakley.
- Starting RT Brady Keim missed the last three games and his backup, Isaiah Jatta, was also out in the finale, so they moved LG Weylin Lepuaho to RT. With Jatta and Keim not listed on the depth chart, it will be Lepuaho at RT once again.
- WR Darius Lassiter will play in the bowl but will have to sit out the first half after receiving an unsportsmanlike conduct call in the regular-season finale against Houston.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- BYU: Kalani Sitake, 3-3
- Colorado: Deion Sanders, 0-0
Net YPP: BYU +.24
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Colorado has the better defense ranking 26th in success rate to BYU at 40th. Both teams huge positives on the turnover margin with Colorado at +11 and BYU at +9.
Verdict: I feel that Colorado has improved as the year went on and BYU has regressed, but in saying that, I expect both teams to be motivated. The public will surly be on Colorado here so that worries me. The other thing that worries me is how long will Shedeur, Horn and Hunter play? I think an over or either team total might be the safest rout to go. Gonna wait, but I lean over.
Play: Colorado TT over 30, or 1st half -2.5
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Army -17 O/U 44
Location: Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
Time: 9:15 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
LA Tech’s Motivation: Medium High – They get to play in a bowl game against a solid team when they thought they would be sitting home.
Army’s Motivation: High – Jeff Monkin always gets his team up at 4-1 ATS in bowl games.
Home: This is a home game for LA Tech. Give them 2 points.
Key Guys Missing:
Louisiana Tech will replace Marshall in the Independence Bowl after the Thundering Herd opted out.
Louisiana Tech Transfer Portal
- Starting DT David Blay (signed with Miami)
- Starting CB Cedric Woods (still expected to play)
- Starting DE J’Dan Burnett
- Backup QB Jack Turner (will still be with team)
Louisiana Tech Injuries:
- LB Blay, Burnett
- LB Kolbe Fields
- LG Bert Hale
Army Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Kanye Udoh (signed with Arizona State)
Army Injuries
- Edge Kyle Lewis is out for the year.
- Backup NT Jacob Tuioti suffered an injury in the Navy game after missing the AAC championship.
Army does have a couple of potential intriguing pro prospects along the offensive line, but I doubt we’d see any opt-outs.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Army: Jeff Monken, 4-1
LA Tech: Sonny Combie, 0-0
Net YPP: Army +.46
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The strange thing about this handicap is that Louisiana Tech actually shows well against the run ranking 16th in opponent rushing success rate. This spread is HUGE compared to the very low total of 44 points. The Bulldog’s offense is terrible ranking 126th in EPA while the Black Knight’s ranks 6th.
Verdict: Army is the option team that will pound the ball and then pound some more, but will they get the margin?
Play: Lean LA Tech +17 but probably won’t play it.
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