A rough weekend in college football at 3-7 in Week 4, as we gave plenty back from a 6-2 in Week 3. Now at 22-23 overall on the season. Hoping to bounce back into Week 5. On the bright side we hit our first free play here at Theoddsbreakers.com. Anyhoo…. Let’s go!
This week’s Free Play travels to one of my focus conferences in the Pac 12. (5-2 Pac-12 plays) It’s not my normal Late Night KNAction, although I do have some of those lined up for Saturday as well. (Get All my Plays available right here @theoddsbreakers.com) We look at at an unusual starting time of 2PM Eastern in Salt Lake City, Utah where the Utes will take on the Oregon State Beavers. Current Lines: Utah -10.5 Over/Under 54.5
Both teams come into this match-up at 3-1. The Utes dropped their opener in Gainesville against Florida and has followed that up with dominating performances against subpar units in Southern Utah, San Diego State and Arizona State. The Beavers won their first three against slightly better competition in Boise State, Fresno State and Montana State, before falling to USC 17-14 last week while committing 4 crucial turnovers.
Chance Nolan leads the Beavers attack, but it was his interceptions last week that ultimately led to the OSU loss. Three of the four interceptions occurred when Nolan was getting hit by defenders that threw off the passes so the line will need to protect better in this one. He will need to get back to taking care of the football in order for Oregon State to repeat last seasons upset of Utah. Deshaun Fenwick leads their rushing attack, but he too was stymied last week against USC gaining only 29 yards on 11 totes. Jam Griffin was able to rack up some decent bulk plays on the ground last week for USC and could play more in this one. The Beavers also lost their main Tight End Luke Musgrave and that could have contributed to some of their problems last week for Nolan. If they can’t run the ball however this could get away from them.
For the Utes it will be the Cameron Rising show as always. He is one of the most consistent and effective QBs in college football. The Utes also lost a Tight End last week with Brant Kuithe going down. Kuithe had 148 career receptions for 1,882 yards and 16 scores so this is a huge loss. Dalton Kincais will look to pickup the slack as he did last week with 2 scores, but he will need some help from next man up at TE as the Utes use a substantial amount of 2 TE sets. Tavian Thomas and Jaylon Glover should both see plenty of snaps in the backfield and will look to pound the rock in this one.
Utah’s pass rush and front seven is a big area of concern for the Beavers. They got to ASU QB Emory Jones 5 times last week, and held the Sun Devils to only 6 yards rushing. This defense allowed only a single touchdown for the third consecutive game and should dominate the line of scrimmage in this match-up. Also they have been solid limiting big plays allowing only one 30+ Yard play from scrimmage all season so far. The Utes are 16th overall in yards per game allowed coming in at just under 300.
Oregon’s state’s defense will be the decider however in this one. If they can get some stops and keep Utah away from the long touchdown they have a chance. Utah is not explosive ranking 112th in the country so it’s not out of the question. Look for Utah to have some long sustained drives milking the clock and coming away with points. They are middle of the pack in yards allowed per game at 64th nationally. They kept the USC offense fairly in check last week allowing 357 yards even while being put in tough situations by the turnovers.
For me this game will all be about pace and defense. Oregon State is 116th in plays per game while Utah sits at 59th. That number would be lower for Utah if not for the 4th quarter of the Florida game where they had to hustle. Overall tempo ranks are at 108 and 112 so both teams are not in a hurry. Combine that with the lack of explosive plays for Utah, and the Utah defense not allowing explosive plays and I think there’s a match made in heaven for a low scoring affair, especially if Oregon State limits the turnovers. Wish I’d gotten it at 55 or higher, but I’m still in at 54.5 as I have this at 30-21 Utah in my projections.
Gimme the Under 54.5 for 1.5 Units. I’m also leaning toward Oregon State with the points if it goes up from the 10.
