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Syracuse vs Boston College -2.5 O/U 53
This is the spot of all betting spots in my opinion for the week. Syracuse is coming off of a misleading final score for their big win at home against Virginia Tech. They just became bowl eligible after that and they are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. Boston College is coming off of a loss and a good one vs Louisville. Looking at the metrics, I do not know why this spread is so low. Syracuse is a -.41 yards per play on a schedule ranking 63rd on Sagarin, while Boston College is about even in yards per play with a schedule ranking 47th. Syracuse ranks 74th in offensive EPA while Boston College is close at 80th. On defense it isn’t even close as Boston College is 50th and Syracuse is a nasty 99th. I also can’t trust a team on the road when they have a -3 turnover ratio while the home team is +4. The huge situational kicker for me is that Boston College is coming off of a bye week, and Syracuse is in a sizable let down spot. Take the Eagles.
Boston College -1.5 – 3 stars
Georgia vs Ole Miss +2.5 O/U 55
Some say that Alabama vs LSU is the game of the weekend, but I think it is this one. These two teams do not have a lot of recent history as the Dogs blew out the Rebs last year 52-17. From an injury standpoint, both teams are banged up some. Number 1 Rebels WR Tre Harris hasn’t played for Ole Miss in over three weeks, but there is a chance that he could be back. Georgia also has some woe’s at running back with Trevor Etienne banged up. Looking at the numbers, Georgia has two advantages. One is the coach in Kirby Smart. The other advantage is that they played a stronger strength of schedule. In saying that, Ole Miss beat out Georgia in almost every other category. Ole Miss is a net positive 3.3 yards per play to Georgia at 1.72, Ole Miss is number 4 in both offensive and defensive EPA while Georgia ranks 31st and 16th respectively. Ole Miss’s offensive and defensive lines grade out higher than Georgia. While I do wish that this was a night game, at least we get to watch it in the afternoon. I think taking the points in this matchup at home makes the most sense.
Ole Miss +2.5 – 2.5 stars
