College Football Week 11:
Washington State vs Colorado +4.5
Well we all knew that Colorado was fake news right? We saw them lose 4 games in a row and now have to face the best team in the Pac 12. Mike Leach’s Cougars are having special year and their Quarterback Gardner Minshew has over a 70% completion rate with a 27-7 TD to Interception ratio. After what Wasu has done you might think this is a let down spot right? It’s not. Their let down spot was last week hosting Cal and they barely got through it. Now they are going in to face a decimated Colorado team that has 3 Wrs and 2 place kickers on the injury report. This will definitely hurt Steven Montez’s passing game where he has a 67% completion percentage and 17-5 TD to Interception ratio. The Cougers on the other hand are injury free and rank top 20 in yards per play at 6.4 while only giving up 5 on defense. Colorado is at 5.8 yards per play but gives up 5.4 on defense. 1/2 yard per play net difference. Washington state ranks first at 8-1 ATS while Colorado ranks 5-4 and has yet to be a home underdog. This one is pretty easy for me.
WASU -4.5 to -7
Kansas vs Kansas St -12
What kind of business does Kansas State this year have laying -12 to anybody? On paper both of these teams are pretty equal only producing 5 yards per play while giving up 6. The JHawks have the slight edge in points per game and Wildcats have the edge in strength of schedule. Neither of these teams will make a bowl but they will be playing this game for pride. This game may be a little windy and you can see this by the total of only 45 points. Both teams will run the ball here and Kansas actually has the edge here allowing only 4.2 yards per run while Kansas State allows a large 5.35. Lastly KState Quarterback Skyler Thompson left last weeks game in the first quarter and is highly questionable for this game. Even tho both teams have 3 wins it looked at as a much better season for Jhawks then the Wildcats. This is also a revenge spot for Kansas and I think they get it done here and possibly win the game.
Kansas +12 and ML Sprinkle
Mississippi State vs Alabama -26
I know, I know. What the hell are you doing Kiev? Why fade Bama when they are 6-3 ATS. Well its pretty much because I have too this week. I mean we see Bama’s offense this year looking as good or better than Oklahoma ranking just second behind them in yards per play. Bama is number 1 in points per game just over Utah State at 52 points. Shockingly Alabama ranks only 5th in points allowed and 10th in yards per play but that is probably because of garbage time. Ok. Here is the handicap. Last year Mississippi state should have beaten Bama and blew it at the end. It was a Jalen Hurts led team but still many of the same players this year. The Bulldogs on the other hand return even MORE players from last year than Alabama and these kids remember how to play this team. Huge revenge spot and this game has been circled. Mississippi state is built to put up a fight against Bama with their RPO game and it works against good teams. Also interesting Mississippi state’s defense ranks 5th in yards per play and 3rd in points allowed at 12. Ahead of Bama in these categories. They also are top 22 in yards per play at 6.5 even after those terrible losses to Kentucky and Florida. This is also a let down spot for Bama after beating their Rival LSU. I am forgoing the first half bet with Bama and Taking the 26 points. I like it down to 23.
Mississippi State +26 and ML sprinkle at +2000
Maryland vs Indiana -3 and O/U 55
Here are 2 teams that have been bad lately but who can blame them. Look who both teams played the last 4 weeks or so. Literally the best of the big 10. What I like here is that both of these teams can make a bowl game if they just win 1 or 2 more games. 1 for Maryland and 2 for Indiana. This should motivate these teams to play well and in turn score some points. What I like about this game is that both teams score about 27 and 28 points per game even factoring in those hard defenses that they played. Maryland plays slow at 60 plays per game but if you look deeper into it the reason is that they haven’t had a close game since week 1 vs Texas. Either Maryland or their opponent was running the clock in the 4th quarter every game. On the other hand Indiana plays super fast ranking 12th at 79 plays per game and the fact that they are at home, they may control some of that pace. Indiana gives up some points too at 30 per game and 5.8 yards per play. I love the over here at 55 and I have this as a pick-em so lean is to Maryland.
Maryland Over 55
Premium Plays:
Michigan vs Rutgers
Baylor vs Iowa State
FIU vs UTSA
Akron vs Buffalo
South Carolina vs Florida
Mississippi vs Texas a&m
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Quick hitters:
Taking Fresno vs Boise State over 54 – Both teams are much better in offense than they were last year. The Broncos average 38 points per game and 6.3 yards per play and Fresno State averages 40 points per game at 6.3 yards per play. Shootout Central
Utah State – 31 Hosting San Jose State – Utah State scoring 50 per game and allowing 22 per game now plays one of the worst teams in the country. Utah State is 8-1 ATS and 5-0 at home. The Aggie’s play fast and will score fast against the Spartans here. Power ratings has this a 37 point difference. Since San Jose State beat UNLV 2 weeks ago they are not dying for a W. This team is done for the season.
Mississippi vs Texas A&M over 66 – Ole Miss is 6-3 in totals bets and I do not see any change here. The last 3 games they averaged 89 plays per game and know how to score through the air. Jordan Ta’amu has a 65% completion percentage and 3000 passing yards. He also can run the ball very well. The Rebels have the 5th worst defense in college football allowing 7.5 yards per play and 39 points per game. Texas A&M’s only weakness is against the pass as you saw last week vs Auburn. They also play pretty fast on offense at 77 plays per game and should be able to lay 50 on this team.
Boston College +20 vs Clemson – Boston college was built to beat this team. Their defense really isn’t that bad ranking 14th in yards per play at 4.7. Obviously we know what Clemson is but can Freshman Trevor Lawrence handle the pressure of playing a night game at Alumni Stadium. Much of this BC team has returned from last year and this is another revenge spot. I just predict a hickup for c+Clemson here and AJ Dillon might find running room with their fast paced offense.
Cincinnati -14 vs USF – USF is over rated and we knew it all year Now they finally play a great defense that can also Score.
The Sharp Side of the Force:
Ohio at Miami Ohio shot up from -3 to -5.5 and now I see some buyback
NC State from -15 to -17 hosting Wake Forest
Kansas at K State from +12 to +10.5
UNC at Duke from +10.5 to +10 Rivalry and I can see that too
Charlotte at Marshall +14.5
UTEP hosting Middle Tennessee State +15 to +13.5 its a let down spot for UTEP
Liberty +23.5 at Virginia
East Carolina at Tulane +15.5 to +14
FAU hosting Western Kentucky -17 to -20
Coastal Carolina +6.5 hosting Arkansas State
Cincinnati hosting USF -12 to -14
Arkansas hosting LSU +14 to +13.5 this is a players fade on LSU after Bama
Stanford -23.5 hosting Oregon State
Sharp Totals:
Dual action on Florida vs South Carolina under 54
Dual action on Wisconsin vs Penn State over from 51 to 55.5 – I can’t trust the QBs here
Washington state vs Colorado under 60.5 a 49% difference
Ole Miss vs Alabama over 51.5 to 53
Baylor vs Iowa State under 51 will be cold
Dual Action on App State vs Tex State under 48
Rice vs Louisiana Tech under 52 a 66% difference is pretty huge
Dual Action Temple at Houston over 69
FSU vs Notre Dame under 54.5 a 57% difference
NFL Week 10:
Detroit vs Chicago -6.5
Comon! Did you think we were not going to go back to the well on this one? The Bears rank 4th in overall efficiency according to football outsiders and the Lions rank 29th! The Bears pass rush has been great lately and that is without Kalil Mack who may be back this week. The Lions gave up 10 sacks last week against the Vikings and now are facing one of the best defenses in the League. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense is starting to Gel, they are not turning the ball over like in the past and they remain pretty healthy. The offensive production is actually pretty similar with a slight edge to the bears in yards per game 359-353 for Detroit but Defensively the Bears have the edge by 35 yards per game. The Bears are top 3 in scoring defense allowing 19 points per game. Most power ratings have the bears by 7.5 points here. Oh and did I mention that Kalil Mack is back!?
Chicago -6.5
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis -3
So if you run the numbers here these teams are pretty similar from a net yards perspective with only a difference of 14 yards. Jags have the defensive advantage and the Colts have the offensive advantage. One difference in these stats is that the Colts have been a very injured team on defense and finally have some players back. Since the Jags have lost offensive tackles Will Richardson and Josh Wells, you have not seen the last years Jags team. Since then they lost to the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Texans and the Eagles and none of those games were even that close. The biggest thing that sticks out to me here is the yards per point. It takes only 13 yards for the colts to score a point and it takes 21 for the Jaguars. Much of this is due to poor QB play from Blake Bortles. Luck is a top 15 QB this year and is now getting back Jack Doyal. Blake Bortles is a top 30 QB. To add to it the Jags have 3 cornerbacks Questionable for this game. The Quarterback play isn’t even close here and If I am going to look at these teams and the line tells me that this would be a Pick-em on a Neutral Field, I am siding the the QB.
Colts -3
Quick Hitter:
Dallas vs Philadelphia -6.5 I love betting on teams after a bye and fading teams on short weeks. In this situation you have BOTH and you also have a very good coach facing a very bad coach. My numbers have this at about -6.5 as it is but it doesn’t factor in the time that Philly had without Carson Wentz and Alshawn Jeffery. You have to upgrade this and I believe that Philli is on a mission here to take back control of this division. Dallas also lost Guard Connor Willams and LB Sean Lee so this is an easy play for me
Dallas -6.5
Teaser
Miami to +15.5 with the Eagles under to 49.
Premium plays
Washington vs Tampa Bay
Seattle vs LA Rams
