College Football Week 5
Arkansas vs Texas A & M -21
Arkansas is currently in full-blown rebuild mode and the fans don’t even care about this team. They average 5.2 yards per play and this is against teams like North Texas, Colorado State, Eastern Illinois and Auburn. Now they face a very motivated Texas A & M team that has a new coach in Jimbo Fisher averaging 7 yards per play against teams like Clemson and Alabama. Even against this tough schedule, the Aggies have been able to hold their opponents to an average of 22.5 points per game. Arkansas is a train wreck this year and will be lucky to move the ball and score any points.
Texas A & M -21
Florida vs Mississippi State -9 O/U 51
Well this game set up well for the Bulldogs. Had the beat Kentucky then I would not be sure if I liked it. I love teams in a good bounce back spot and this one lines up well. Florida just took care of their rival Tennessee and now has to go on the road again to face this pissed off team. The Bulldogs could not stop the run against Kentucky but their defense is till averaging 13.5 points allowed as well as 3.25 yards per run and 4.22 Yards per play. Florida on the other hand hasn’t faced anyone tough except Kentucky at home and they have some QB issues. I like Mississippi state to stack the box and win by 13.
Miss State -9
Let’s stay right here. Florida really has no passing game and is the second slowest playing team in the league at 56 plays per game and Mississippi State ranks 99th at 67 plays per game. Both teams held their opponents to under 16 points per game on average on defense and Mississippi state is great defending teams to 4.2 yards per play.
Under 50.5
Florida State vs Louisville +5
Ok, Louisville is an absolute train wreck right now. The only good team that they played was Bama and they still only average 3.7 yards on the ground and a just 4.7 yards per play averaging only 17 points per game. Louisville also gives up about 5.6 yards per play. Florida State we know stinks as well but I think they have played harder competition in Syracuse, Northern Illinois and Virginia Tech. They are at least averaging 5.1 yards per play and giving up 5.2. I like Florida State to win by a TD or so. This is an ugly game but one with some value.
Florida State -5
Michigan vs Northwestern + 13
This game actually set up pretty nicely for me. Northwestern coming off a bye and a terrible loss to Akron while Michigan coming off a very easy win against a Nebraska team that plays fast. If you look at the total of this game it is pretty low for college football which also tells me that this spread might be a bit too high. The market is so low on Northwestern for losing to Duke and Akron that I think there is some dog value here. Michigan has been wooping up on teams pretty good lately but this is still the same team that lost to a Whimbush led Notre Dame team. They really haven’t played anybody good this year and I think Northwestern should be able to slow this game down. I like that the Wildcats are averaging 3.9 yards per game against the run on defense when you see that Michigan is a run first type team. 2/3rds of Michigan’s plays have been running plays so I think this is a low scoring punt a ton type game. Most importantly Northwestern needs a huge game here.
Northwestern +13
Baylor vs Oklahoma -24
So we saw Oklahoma get frustrated for not preparing correctly vs Army. They almost lost this game outright but survived. Baylor on the other hand has not been good over the past 3 or 4 years since RG3 and is therefore not respected in the marketplace. One thing you can’t ignore is Baylor’s potent offense that averages 7 yards per play and a 153 QB Rating. This Baylor team last year when young also only lost to Oklahoma by 8 points and these kids know that they can hang with them a little bit. Now we know how strong Oklahoma’s offense is and all and they should be able to score when they want but I think in the back of their minds that they might be looking ahead to a Texas team that just beat TCU and is very hungry to face the Sooners. I think Baylor can keep up with these guys and the fact that their defense is at least stopping teams to a 117 passing rating and 5.45 yards per play that they can keep this game within 20.
Baylor +24
Pittsburgh vs Central Florida – 15
I find it pretty strange that Central Florida only has 4 away games this year. Their UNC game was cancelled but still! Lucky them huh. What isn’t lucky is that they do not have any hard games on their schedule for them to have a chance to get into the playoffs again… Because of this they pretty much are trying to destroy every team on their schedule. Since they play so fast and McKenzie Milton is so good, any team that they play that isn’t top 50 should be on auto-bet for you if the spread is less than 20. The stats shouldn’t even matter at this point
UCF -15
Virginia Tech vs Duke – 5.5
This handicap is actually pretty simple to me. Virginia Tech lost Josh Jackson to a broken Fibula and Duke’s backup QB Quentin Harris is actually pretty good. Duke has played a much harder schedule than Virginia Tech and we gave them way too much Credit for beating Florida State. Even with Jackson I have Duke beating them by 10 points in the power ratings.
Duke – 5.5
Oregon State vs ASU O/U 64.5
So we know that Oregon State plays pretty fast at 80 plays per game but at the same time Arizona State plays pretty slow at 69. The fact that ASU is at home should bode well for them. ASU can control this game due to their stellar defense allowing just 18 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. ASU has played a pretty hard schedule against some good offenses as well. Herm isn’t a run up the score kind of guy and I think they run the ball this whole game. I love this under and it should hit easily.
Under 64.5
Texas vs K State O/U 47.5
Kansas State seems really bad this year. Worst that I have seen in a long time. When they played ranked teams, they failed to score over 10 points. Texas has a decent defense holding teams to 21 points per game and they played a decent schedule with TCU and Maryland and USC. Texas is also looking ahead to Oklahoma and I doubt they want to get too cute here. I think Texas wins this game 23-13 in a very boring game.
OTHER PLAYS
UAB – 17 vs Charlotte. Charlotte has a QB injury as well and UAB is 10-5-1 ATS since last year and 4-2-1 as a favorite. Charlotte is a pretty bad team.
BYU +17.5 ML sprinkle vs Washington: BYU is a much better team then people think this year. They carry the ball and run clock.
Ohio -13 vs UMASS – Umass has some serious QB injury problems. Both Andrew Ford and Ross Comis got injured last game
Other Games
Ohio State vs Penn State +4 – I have Ohio State by like 1 point or so. The White out night game is more like a 5 point home field advantage. This is a Revenge spot for Penn State but they did not look great a few games this year vs Appalachian State and 3 quarters vs Illinois. Super high total. Small lean on Penn State
Virginia vs NC State Under 52.5 – back to the well with Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall is a good coach and likes to pound the ball. NC State plays an average pace at 73 plays per game but Virginia plays 109th in pace at 65 plays per game. This game will go fast because the clock is going to run run run. Both teams allow less than 3.8 yards per run and both defenses average less than 18 points per game. Virginia is at 17.8 and NC State is at 13.3. This should go way under
West Virginia vs Texas Tech +4.5 O/U 77.5
Ok, so its very evident to me that Texas Tech is in a let down spot after beating Oklahoma State. It is also very evident to me that West Virginia hasn’t played anybody. I think Texas Tech is better than Ole Miss and would beat them if they replayed that brutal game. Both teams have very high-powered offenses and good efficiencies. Texas Tech averages 6.7 yards per play and Virginia averages 8.2. What I found strange is that Texas Tech is number 2 in plays per game at 98 plays per game and the mountaineers are 122nd at 64 plays per game. Part of this reason is that they have been beating tomato cans such as Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State. What I did find surprising is that both defenses are doing pretty well but its hard to compare them when one team played the 21st hardest schedule and West Virginia has played the 95th hardest schedule. The power ratings have West Virginia a slight favorite on a neutral field so in this instance you have to go with the home dog. I also may be taking the under in this game.
Texas Tech +4.5 and ML Sprinkle 1 Unit
Purdue vs Nebraska – Premium Play
Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern – Premium Play
Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan – Premium Play
Louisiana Monroe vs Georgia State – Premium Play
Sharp Money Report:
Georgia Tech to -28 hosting Bowling Green
Kansas + 28 vs Oklahoma State
Virginia to +6 at NC State
Georgia State +7.5 hosting Louisiana Monroe – I disagree there
Ohio hosting Umass -13. They have 99% of the money on them
Tennessee +31 at Georgia
Nevada +7.5 vs AIrforce
Middle Tenn State +3 hosting Florida Atlantic
Texas A & M hosting Arkansas has 99% of the money. Public and Sharp
Fresno State to -10 hosting Toledo
Sharp Totals:
Memphis vs Toledo Over 69
Texas A & M vs Arkansas under 62
Ok State vs Kansas under 62
Ball State over 63.5
UCF vs Pitt Both sharps and Squares on over to 66
Baylor vs Oklahoma under 69,5
Purdue vs Nebraska 2 way action on the over 57 91%
App State vs South Alabama under down to 57.5
Tennessee vs Georgia under to 52′
Nevada vs Airforce 2 way action over to 68.5
Michigan vs Northwestern under 48
Florida vs Miss State under 51
Duke vs Va Tech under 51
FAU vs MTSU under has 2 way action down to 66.5
Oregon St vs ASU under 63.5
Oregon vs Cal under to 58.5
The National Flag League: NFL
Vikings at Rams -6.5 –
I am going to start right off the bat playing against the over reaction to the Bills loss. I mean, what would this spread look like had the Vikings their kicker completed a Field Goal in Green bay and didn’t look past the BIlls last week? 4 points, maybe 5? This Viking team is still the team that improved their Quarterback from 2017 and just missed going to the NFC Championship game. As far as the Rams, who have they even played??? The injured Chargers, the hopeless Raiders and the 0-3 Cardinals at home. They key here for me is that the Rams have lost their TOP 2 corner backs for this week in Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib. I also do not like that they lost Zuerlein in this game situation. For the Vikings, they are a bit beat up as well. I am hoping Delvin Cook plays and they need Center Josh Andrews back. I do not like that Everson Griffen just went nuts on the Vikings and was committed to the Looney bin, but they still should have the talent to keep this game close. Mike Zimmer will not get wooped upon again.
Vikings +6.5
San Francisco vs LA Chargers -10.5 –
Ok, does C.J. Beathard have any business being in the NFL? Probably not but that does’t mean that he is as bad as some of the other garbage that I see out there. At last the guy has a 55% completion percentage and a 69 QB rating. Most importantly to me is how the hell is the Chargers laying this many points with that terrible Defense? The Chargers give up second worst 31 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Even a terrible team should be able to move the ball here. the 49ers are second in the NFL in rushing yards and should be able to control the pace of this game. Expect Breida and Morris to have big days. I know the loss of Richard Sherman will hurt this team but the Chargers may be without Mike Williams as well. This line pays no respect to Kyle Shanahan whatsoever. I think Kyle will be able to dumb down this offense a bit to a dink and dunk style and be able to keep this game closer.
49ers + 10.5
Kansas City vs Denver +5.5 and O/U 56
Will the Patrick Mahomes train run out of steam? Well according to the Power ratings and the NFL efficient index this spread is inflated. The obvious reason for this is that Kansas City has one of the worst Defenses in the League allowing 474 yards per game, 6.7 yards per play and 30.7 points per game. The problem here is that they have the best offense in the league averaging 39 points and 400 yards per game. The Chiefs have the second best red-zone efficiency at 92% and over all the best offensive efficiency in the League. For these reasons I do not want to even touch the spread on Denver’s side. But what I do like is Denver’s ability to run the ball and slow the game down. The Broncos are 3rd in rushing yards per game and top 8 in attempts. We know that Case Keenum can’t make the long throw and this is why the Bronco’s games go pretty quickly. Denver also has a pretty good defense, top 10 in sacks and top 13 in yards per play. Denver also doesn’t score too quickly and they are one of the worst in Yards per point at 18.8 I think that they run the ball here at home and slow down the amazing Kansas City’s prolific offense.
Under 56 points
Eagles vs Titans +4 O/U 41.5
When it comes to defense, both of these teams have been very good this year. When it comes to pace of play Tennessee is one of the slowest. The Eagles have the 5th best at Red Zone Defense allowing only a 33.33% success rate for touchdowns while Tennessee is number 1 at 16.67 percent. Let’s face it, the Eagles are banged up! Ajayi is hurting and missing games. No more Torrey Smith. Mike Wallace is out for the year. Alshawn Jeffery isn’t back yet. Who does that leave you? Agolor and Ertz. Now a rusty Carson Wentz is coming into Tennessee trying to score points. On the other side of the coin, Marcus Mariotta has been banged up and so is their backup Blaine Gabbert with a concussion. The Titans also lost their top pass catcher earlier this year in Delainey Walker. Both offenses together are only putting up 16 and 20 points per game for a total of 36 while these 2 defenses allow only 17 and 18 points per game for a total of 35 points per game as it is.
Eagles Under 41.5
Others:
Bengals +5
Lions + 3
Saints -3.5
