Premium Plays: 85-58-1, +39.2u
*CFB(1u): Old Dominion +9(-110) vs Tulsa–1:30 PM CT
Both of these teams are 6-6 entering this afternoon’s bout in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Additionally, both teams used strong finishes to the season to secure their bowl eligibility. However, I think one team clearly did a more impressive job in the second half of the season and should feel good entering today’s game. Old Dominion started the year just 1-5, but after promoting Hayden Wolff to starting QB, the Monarchs won their final 5 games of the season. Even with measly QB play early in the season, ODU still played Buffalo, UTEP, and Marshall all to 1 score games. In addition to Wolff adding a spark at QB, the Monarchs also run the ball quite well; Blake Watson and Elijah Davis each exceeded the 5 YPC mark with at least 100 carries to their name. Tulsa has traditionally played good defense under Phil Montgomery, but the Golden Hurricanes took a step back on that side of the ball this year. It’s also worth noting that DC Joseph Gillespe left for the TCU DC job and will not be coaching in this game. It’s very easy to fade Tulsa’s offense because of their poor QB play. Davis Brin threw 16 INT’s this season, completed just 59% of his passes, and struggled to eclipse the 8 Y/A mark. Tulsa had some success with their young RB’s this season, but Phil Montgomery chose to dish most of the carries out to senior Sean Brooks, who amassed just 4.8 YPC this season. Given this is Brooks’ last game, I highly doubt Montgomery will take carries away from him. This formula leads to Tulsa converting just 37% of the time on 3rd down. What ultimately gets me to the window in this game is that Tulsa has failed to win by margin this season(excluding against Temple, who publicly quit towards the end of the season). They beat Arkansas State by just 7, South Florida by 1, and actually lost to UC Davis by 2 earlier in the season; I power rate all of those teams lower than this Old Dominion squad. Old Dominion is 9-3 ATS this season and, being a lower-level G5 school, is much more likely to max out in this game; Tulsa underperformed expectations this season and will have to address whether Phil Montgomery is the right guy for the HC job. Any spread over 1 possession presents a good opportunity to play on a hot ODU team and fade a Tulsa team that clearly isn’t built to win by margin.
