*CFB(1.5u): Mississippi State -10(-110) vs Texas Tech–5:45 PM CT
Mississippi State employs a fast-paced, air-raid offense that saw QB Will Rogers throw for 4450 yards and 35 TD’s, all while completing 75% of his passes. Texas Tech’s defense was absolutely torched by teams who committed to the passing game against them; Texas scored 70, Oklahoma and TCU each scored 52, and Iowa State put up 38. Tech can get stops when facing more traditional offenses such as Baylor and Oklahoma State, but against a high-flying passing attack, their toast. They are also on their 3rd string QB as Donovan Smith will get his 5th straight start in this one. While Smith had some success for Tech, he also proved to be totally inept against Oklahoma State as the Red Raiders were shut out. I’m not comparing Miss State’s defense to Oklahoma State’s, but the Bulldogs found some success employing their bend–don’t-break defense this season. Smith will need to be precise to finish drives against this style of defense, but he has yet to prove to me he can do so. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a massive revenge game for Mike Leach, who will face his former employer that sent him packing for “player mistreatment”. Leach and this Bulldogs offense will control the game from start to finish; I’ve got no problem laying those 10 points.
*CFB(1.5u): West Virginia +5(-110) vs Minnesota–9:15 PM CT
Minnesota is not a team that is built to win by margin, plain and simple. The Gophers offense runs at a very slow pace and employs a run-heavy attack, even with their top 2 RB’s out for the majority of the season. This is because PJ Fleck has zero trust in his WR room(he’s been public about this); despite having a 3rd year starting QB in Tanner Morgan, Fleck has little trust in his passing game. Hence, the Gophers score just 26 PPG. West Virginia allowed just 24 PPG this season and, like every team that faces Minnesota, should be able to sell out to stop the run. I’m not in love with this West Virginia offense, but their problems don’t stem from not being able to move the ball. QB Jarrett Doege is a 5th year player who threw for over 2900 yards this season; if he doesn’t throw for 11 INT’s this season, the Mountaineers probably win two of those close games they lost. RB Leddie Brown opted out of this game, but frankly, I think he’s one of the most overrated players in the country(just 4.8 YPC); the Mountaineers will be find without him. Minnesota has great defensive numbers, but they play in a division(B1G West) that doesn’t feature very many pass-first offenses. When you’re playing Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois, the scoring is just going to be at a premium on both sides. This line is ridiculous in my mind; I can understand Minnesota being a 2 point favorite, but if they want to give us 5 points in a very low variance game, I’m hopping all over that. West Virginia should be right in the mix to win this game.
*CFB(0.5u): West Virginia ML(+170) vs Minnesota–9:15 PM CT
Analysis above.
*CFB(1u): NC State -2(-110) vs UCLA–7 PM CT
UCLA would be the must sexier pick in this spot, but the reality is that NC State is the far more trustworthy team entering this matchup. The Wolfpack(9-3) lost their 2 conference games by a combined 4 points(1 pt loss to a rising Miami team, 3 point loss to 10 win Wake Forest). This team is very efficient on each side of the ball. Offensively, Devin Leary nabbed a fantastic 35 TD:5 INT ratio this season as the Wolfpack scored 33 PPG this season. Defensively, NC State allowed less than 20 PPG and used a fantastic pass rush to have their success. UCLA is a hard team to bet against because of their upside, but this team crumbled often this season. Sure, they easily handled LSU and USC, but they also lost outright at home to Fresno State and were uncompetitive against Arizona State and Utah. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true dual-threat QB who got very hot towards the end of the season, but with nearly a month off between games, I’m not sure he’ll carry that momentum into this one. The Bruins deploy a really solid run game, but that is almost completely negated when you look at how bad they were in their front 7 defensively this season. I can trust NC State in this spot, while UCLA has proven that their swings in play are large and occur quite often. DTR’s legs keep this a 1u play for me, but I really like NC State in this matchup.
