*CFB(1.5u): North Carolina -10(-110) vs South Carolina–10:30 AM CT
Each of these teams finished the season 6-6, but that doesn’t begin to tell the full story about the talent levels of each. North Carolina has a truly dynamic QB in Sam Howell; while his completion percentage and overall efficiency was down this season, that’s not all on him. This Tar Heel offensive line yielded 43 sacks this season. While the OL is poor in pass block, they do a pretty good job at setting up for the run. Howell ran for 825 yards and 11 TD’s this season, while RB Ty Chandler ran for 1,063 yards(6.1 YPC) and 13 TD’s. South Carolina will be missing their best pass rusher in this game, and while this unit allowed just 24 PPG this season, they seldom faced as dynamic of an offense as they will see here. In addition, South Carolina’s offense is PUTRID. They will start Zeb Noland at QB, who began this season as a graduate assistant on this Gamecock staff(no, that’s not a joke). On the year, Noland completed just 55% of his passes and threw for just 6.6 Y/A. SC’s top RB opted out, leaving just Kevin Harris(4 YPC this season) to run behind a pretty mediocre OL. North Carolina’s defense can be leaky, but they have only been exposed by viable offenses; that’s not what we’re getting here with South Carolina. This game presents a great opportunity for Sam Howell to improve his draft stock, and his HC Mack Brown has a good track record in bowl games(14-9 in career). Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks took advantage of a few flat spots from their opponents(I think of Florida and Auburn), but when you look at it, this isn’t a team that’s set up to compete against dynamic teams yet. I’ll lay the 10 with the Tar Heels.
*CFB(1u): Michigan State -3(+100) vs Pittsburgh–6 PM CT
Pittsburgh had about as good of an offensive season as you could’ve hoped for, but with QB Kenny Pickett opting out of this game, all of that really goes out of the window. Pickett accounted for 4300 yards and 42 TD’s; his presence will be missed greatly. Stepping in will be Nick Patti, who has just 64 career attempts under his belt. An underrated aspect of this game is that, in addition to Pickett, Pitt will also be without OC Mark Whipple after he took the Nebraska OC job. Pickett credits Whipple for much of the Panthers’ success this season(it sure as hell ain’t Pat Narduzzi leading the way), so without him calling plays, we’re likely to see Pitt revert back to their old habits. Michigan State will also be without their star player in RB Kenneth Walker III, but I think they’ll be able to live without him. QB Payton Thorne had a solid season(2900 yards, 24 TD’s, 8.5 Y/A), and he has a pair of really dynamic WR’s at his disposal. Pitt proved to be leaky against good passing offenses this season, giving up 44 to Western Michigan, 38 to Miami, and 38 to Virginia. I don’t want to act like the Spartans have a great defense themselves, but I have a hard time seeing Patti being able to exploit some of MSU’s weaknesses in the secondary. I wish I would’ve played this when it was at 2.5, but we are getting even odds at this -3 number. I think MSU wins by more than a field goal.
